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Run Line Blitz System

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Prospect
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Posted: #376
Quote Originally Posted by CoFred:

Your math is bad. -7-8=15


Forget about math,think about his point..also,if prof8t using Labourchere,how can be a score 63-1.
I think better for all will be true count,W-L and total units wins with labourchere.

GL to all..
 
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Posted: #377
prof8 is that the play also on Fla vs Hou? they have the same as ML as Stl game. btw, accord to RBI, the STL is not the play
 
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Posted: #378
Quote Originally Posted by boycali01:

prof8 is that the play also on Fla vs Hou? they have the same as ML as Stl game. btw, accord to RBI, the STL is not the play

When I looked at the lines, the two teams were not even.  Thus, the play on St. Louis (another winner).
 
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Posted: #379
Ok, I see this swampdonkey character is back to once again attempt to crash the party.  I will be writing a little bit about how to play these systems in the days ahead since it's really hard for me to do so with such limited time after I get off work (which happens to be now).

For now, keep these few concepts in mind.

1.  You are better off playing the Labouchere method for this chase system.

2.  If you are playing the Labouchere method, you need to break down the 6-game chase into two or three game chases.

3. Be prepared to allocate losses in other methods, such as reinvesting them into larger labouchere lines, or other systems or plays.

4.  Diversify your selections.  Play more than one system.  It also wouldn't hurt to follow a good handicapper or two if you can't pick straight plays.

More to come...
 
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Posted: #380
Current Record 63-1

8-11-09
NYY (Game 1)


Good Luck
 
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Posted: #381
Current Record 64-1

8-11-09
NYY (Game 1)


Good Luck
 
Prospect
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Posts: 43
Posted: #382
Man,nobody want crush anything..i tell u something,I do live betting in Vegas,my unit for labourchere is $500 and if u ask me in the middle of night,how many losses and wins,how is my % and what is my ROI,I'll tell u that in the minute..that's what I missing here..and don't forget,this forum read also people,who don't have experience with betting and can follow this in wrong way,that's why I asking for some explanation..

GL

 
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Posts: 241
Posted: #383
Quote Originally Posted by prof8t:

Ok, I see this swampdonkey character is back to once again attempt to crash the party.  I will be writing a little bit about how to play these systems in the days ahead since it's really hard for me to do so with such limited time after I get off work (which happens to be now).

For now, keep these few concepts in mind.

1.  You are better off playing the Labouchere method for this chase system.

2.  If you are playing the Labouchere method, you need to break down the 6-game chase into two or three game chases.

3. Be prepared to allocate losses in other methods, such as reinvesting them into larger labouchere lines, or other systems or plays.

4.  Diversify your selections.  Play more than one system.  It also wouldn't hurt to follow a good handicapper or two if you can't pick straight plays.

More to come...

 

If you are playing two or three game chases, then how is the record 64-1. In reading the entire thread there have been many times that this "system" was on game 4 or higher. How do you get ot game four with two or three game chases?

 
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Posted: #384
Quote Originally Posted by swamppdonkey77:

 

If you are playing two or three game chases, then how is the record 64-1. In reading the entire thread there have been many times that this "system" was on game 4 or higher. How do you get ot game four with two or three game chases?


I am recording the system record in it's original form of a 6-game chase that's why.

Man, what is your beef?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #385
My beef is that i am trying to use the system and it seems that the rules keep changing. When the six game chase loses, you can't now say to break it up into 2 or 3 game chases. I'm just trying to understand and make a buck just like the rest of us.  I'm not the only one asking questions of how the system works, and you're normal response is  to ignore us, or act like you're being attacked,  I'm not trying to crash any party, just sincerely curious how it is working.
 
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Posted: #386
This System has been very good this season, most of the questions you are asking about can probably be answered thoughtout the 16 pages of the thread.

I don't know if you have read my thread as well, but if you want to check out my spreadsheet for this System (which I have given credit to prof8t for creating), perhaps more of your questions will be answered.
I have altered the System some over the past couple of months, but it follows along the general idea.
I will not post the link here, out of respect for prof8t's thread, but if you read through all the commentary from May-Current, as well as the 16 pages here in this thread, perhaps a greater understanding will come.
I have been playing the System as a straight double-up Chase for the most part, compared to the Labouchere here.
If you do all this, and still have questions, please feel free to post in my thread, or pm me and I will try to answer any questions.

prof8t has developed some great things for the forum, but is a very busy person. Please don't get angry cuz he does not have enough time to answer all questions.


Cheers 
 
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Posted: #387
The System is recorded as a 6-Game Chase for record keeping purposes. Each capper should determine their own money management system tho.
This is all prof8t is saying.. to reduce risk further, he has broken the 6 game chase into multiple lines of Labouchere.

If you have a solid enough bankroll, and can afford to lose a 6-game chase (should 1 happen), then by all means play just a single line.

More often than not, it pays to be cautious than brazen. If you backtrack all the games, you will find not very many times does it go past a 3rd game. For the times it does go past 3 games, simply take your losses from those 3, and re-distribute over a new line to win it back.

Cheers
 
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Posted: #388
Quote Originally Posted by swamppdonkey77:

My beef is that i am trying to use the system and it seems that the rules keep changing. When the six game chase loses, you can't now say to break it up into 2 or 3 game chases. I'm just trying to understand and make a buck just like the rest of us.  I'm not the only one asking questions of how the system works, and you're normal response is  to ignore us, or act like you're being attacked,  I'm not trying to crash any party, just sincerely curious how it is working.

Swamppdonkey, I extend my apology to you. 

Kreatture is absolutely on point with what he said in the above post (post #387).  There is no set rule that says the system must be played as a 6-game chase.  It could be played as a 3-game chase, or even a 2-game chase if you wanted.  And yes, the money management system will vary amongst cappers based upon their bankrolls as well as their gut.

I personally like to split the 6-game chase into two 3-game chases.  Like kreatture said, it pays to be cautious.

Great job kreatture 
 
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Posted: #389
Food for thought...

The Labouchere method is best utilized for betting styles in which losing streaks are not lengthy.  Think about the line for a minute and lets say that you win every 5th or 6th game that you bet on.  Can you imagine after time what your line would look like?  It would be ridiculously lengthy.  You want to use the Labouchere in situations in which the wins are more frequent.

Chase systems can be profitable if they are based on strong statistical probabilities.  In the case of the run line blitz, the true statistical probability is somewhat unknown.  We know that the reason we are choosing a particular team is based upon the strongest odds on the board. Since the odds heavily favor a selected team to win, we assume that more than likely that team will win.  What we do not know is whether or not they will win by two or more.  Thus, the run line blitz system is only partially strong.

Because of this, unless you have a huge bankroll, it is recommended that you split the 6-game chase into two three-game chases.

Hope this helps.
 
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Posted: #390
Because of this, unless you have a huge bankroll, it is recommended that you split the 6-game chase into two three-game chases.

Hope this helps.
[/Quote]

Guys, thank you. I appreciate these latest posts...very insightful.

I've been thinking about calculating my own -1 run line, spitting the wager into 2, ML & RL,  versus all the wager on the RL -1 1/2.  It appears ~15-20% of the time, the fav wins at the ML but does not cover the -1 1/2. The more I think about it... it boils down to how much you save splitting the wager versus capturing the higher value RL line. 
Once again, thank you for the posts. 


 
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Posted: #391
I have read thru this entire thread but still had questions but most of them have been answered with the above posts - so thanks guys! I take it St Louis RL is the play today?
 
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Posted: #392
Current Record 65-1

8-11-09
STL (Game 1)


Good Luck
 
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Posted: #393
So if I was going to break this into 2 - 3 game lines, I'm betting $100 to win per game, and I lose the first 3 then it looks like this right?

50-50-50-50
50-50-50-50-100
50-50-50-50-100-150

So now I want to redistribute on a second line...so how would that look exactly? Thanks in advance.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #394
Prof8t can u please accept me as a friend,I want to ask u something.Thx
 
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Posted: #395
Quote Originally Posted by stickbit:

So if I was going to break this into 2 - 3 game lines, I'm betting $100 to win per game, and I lose the first 3 then it looks like this right?

50-50-50-50
50-50-50-50-100
50-50-50-50-100-150

So now I want to redistribute on a second line...so how would that look exactly? Thanks in advance.

There are so many ways to redistribute losses.  There is no set rule for this really.  Its just a matter of how you choose to play it.  Here's an example:

You could redistribute the losses into a new line, thus creating two lines.  You would retain the original line (50-50-50-50), and also have another line that looks like this: 50-50-50-50-50.  This last line is the combined total of the losses.  Now you'll play two lines however you wish to play them.

I saw a post in here somewhere in which someone was exploring the possibility of alternating play between two lines, however, I have not had time to follow up on that idea.

This is just one example.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #396
Thanks Prof8t. Just to re-confirm though if I want to play this system and just use one line that would be fine too?
 
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Posted: #397
Ok thanks guys, things make more sense the way they are explained now. Affording the 6 game loss was one of my main concerns. It can get to a huge amount in a hurry. Kreatture and Prof8t thanks for taking the time. Best of luck lads!
 
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Posted: #398
Quote Originally Posted by stickbit:

Thanks Prof8t. Just to re-confirm though if I want to play this system and just use one line that would be fine too?

Yes
 
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Posted: #399
Current Record 66-1

8-13-09
COL (Game 1)


Good Luck
 
 
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Posted: #400
OK... we have a uniques opportunity to pick up two wins today.  The Chicago and STL are pretty close to identical in stats and starters against their opponents.  The Cubs go early enough that we could play both games today.

Current Record 67-1

8-14-09
CHC (Game 1)

STL (Pending)


Good Luck
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