Run Differential and -1.5 Run Line

One thing I have been doing and tracking is the run differential of the best and worst teams and using the run lines over the past several years. So far its been working. A lot of folks are scared of the run line when its -1.5 but when the numbers go in your favor it should be looked more closely. 

EX.

Right now I go on the Houston Astros almost every game on the RL. If the lines are not too high I will even bet them on the ML too. I had them on 5/28 both ML and RL at NYY. They have a +126 run dif. and are 31-24 on the -1.5 RL this season.  

Now look at your bottom feeders, Baltimore and Miami. BAL has a  -85 run dif. and MIA has a -90 run dif. I bet against them almost every game using RL -1.5.   

*****Be prepared to adjust if the lines get rediculous.

*****Also, there will be losing streaks. Watch the teams hit differentials too. A lot of times you can see where they are hot and where they are cold.  

*****Be careful on the Chicago Cubs. They are .560 but somehow have a run dif. of +77 losing almost half their games. 

*****Go through and look at the numbers and don't get attached to teams in case the numbers start falling out of favor....adjust. 

I am not calling this a system by any means. However it is a strategy. Feel free to use it and make your own filters. Also if you see something worth sharing then please post. Some things seem to always work while others only work for so long.  Sometimes what looks promising ends up being a turd. I've always thought of this forum as a way for people to help one another and learn from one another. So don't be a --ck, there is no perfect system or strategy. Its about winning over the long run. 

Good Luck, Win Big! 

Good Stuff cougar....-1.5 RL , -1.5 reverseRL 

This is really good stuff....in connection to the ultimate value of the RL (by which the majority of cappers feel is the only wager of value in MLB) , and the stats that support its application..

exceedingly well done cougarpines  [FYI, 52% of all games played over the past 12 seasons were WON by +2 runs...making the RL, and to a lesser extent, the (reverse) RL...I have also found through stats, playing the +1.5RL

only takes the value away from a solid 'dog' play, and brings forward, what many cappers feel is a downright "sucker wager" all games are bet to WIN, not to lose by less than 2 runs, some would debate that you are shaving RISK, (their are no stats that back this up) what you are shaving is the value of the dog, and the application of the RRL.

MLB 'live' RL report

Yesterday (05/29/18) 

All 30 teams competed in 15 games

10 of those games were won by 2+runs / 66.66%

Run line and alternate run line is where its at. Thats not to say the ML should not be used but I usually won't go on anything above -150.....it becomes bankroll Russian Roulette   

this season 71% of the games have been won with 2 runs or more and 29% with 1 run. this is actually lower than last year and year before where they won 73% and 72%.. but season is still fresh. Now.. if you look at Away vs Home.. that percentage jumps to 73% away vs 69% home for this season,, but last year... it's was 77% vs 70% home... so def Away is the way to go but for some teams it really doesn't matter (i.e Astros)..If you look deeper or run SDQL on it you can find teams WHEN THEY WIN they win even by 3 or more runs and you can even do adjusted RL (-2.5) for smaller plays.. of course Away and home make even a greater difference.

Great follow up information! I got tired of being burned on the moneyline favorite when I first started this stuff. If you are mostly on the + side of the RL or ALT RL your win % does not have to be very high in comparison to the ML to break even.  Thanks for the insight! 

The RL and ALT RL just keeps humming along!    

On my spreadsheet, I have Road/Home Ave runs scored and Ave runs against.  I have Road/Home Last 5g Runs scored/against.  I have -1.5 winning percentage for Road/Home Fav/Dog (dog getting the ARL -1.5).  I have Road/Home Fav/Dog RL win percentage (dog is +1.5...how well does the dog cover +1.5).  Lastly, I have last 5 games played with count of won -1.5 versus won overall. 

I hope some of you took the twinny twinny Twins on the ML +170 ATL RL +300++(depending on your book) yesterday and took the Rays ML +240 against the "lock" 'Stros. 

Also, that east bay team was getting very little respect from the general public against the Padres. 

I have been out of pocket between moving, vacation, and work.  What kind of updates are you looking for? 

The only two things I know of off hand that seem to be trending is Oakland is not respected by the general public despite being a .570 ball club and one of my astute cappers pointed out fading Justin Verlander has been profitable. 

If you read my above post and went against Justin Verlander last night then congratulations! 

I had Texas Rangers on the moneyline at +280 and also on the alternate run line at +350. 

Great find by a good capper +EV.