Roulette strategy: Your thoughts on EV?

Question

Hello guys,

My professor mentioned this roulette strategy in class. He says it worked for him, and he's got a priceless reputation for being overly honest. Personally, I've never played roulette before until tonight, and I don't have the algorithm for how his theory works.

Anyways, curious as to what you think the pros/cons of this strategy are. Don't worry - I can't personally see myself ever playing this game and expecting to win, just curious what you think about the expected value here.

Please pardon my ignorance, I don't know shit about the game.

=-=-=-=-=-
Here are the rules of my professor's game:

Roulette has "dozens bets."
Definition of Dozen Bets: a bet on either the first (1-12), second (13-24), or third (25-36) twelve numbers. Payouts on these bets are almost always 2-1.

Prof's rules:
1. Pick two dozens (Ex: I picked 1-12, and 13-24).
2. Bet those two dozens every time. You should win approximately two-thirds of the time. (In American roulette, they have 0 and 00, so this actually makes your win rate less than two-thirds of the time.)
3. If you win, keep your bet the same.
4. If you lose, double your bet. Repeat until win. Once you win, decrease your bet to your original amount.

The overall goal of Prof's game was, and I quote:
"My hypothesis was, if I can find a game where you can stay in the game for the longest period of the time . . . well at some point you're up, you quit when you're up, it'll work."

OBVIOUS FLAWS:
1. Casinos impose betting limits. They're also aware of the double-your-bet theory, aka the Martingale system.
2. Tipping kills your EV here, unless you're playing for larger sums than $2 bets and only tipping $1. (I am unfamiliar with roulette tipping etiquette in the real world.)

Example w/ $2 as my base bet, and doubling both dozen bets when I lose:
https://casino.bodog.com/free-roulette.jsp

win
loss
win
win
win
win
loss
win
win
loss

Result: With $2 increments, I finished +$6.

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

This site contains other strategies besides the Martingale, such as doubling your bets when you win:
https://www.roulettetactics.com/roulette/strategy/

Sidehatch · Answer

Hello guys,

My professor mentioned this roulette strategy in class. He says it worked for him, and he's got a priceless reputation for being overly honest. Personally, I've never played roulette before until tonight, and I don't have the algorithm for how his theory works.

Anyways, curious as to what you think the pros/cons of this strategy are. Don't worry - I can't personally see myself ever playing this game and expecting to win, just curious what you think about the expected value here.

Please pardon my ignorance, I don't know shit about the game.

=-=-=-=-=-
Here are the rules of my professor's game:

Roulette has "dozens bets."
Definition of Dozen Bets: a bet on either the first (1-12), second (13-24), or third (25-36) twelve numbers. Payouts on these bets are almost always 2-1.

Prof's rules:
1. Pick two dozens (Ex: I picked 1-12, and 13-24).
2. Bet those two dozens every time. You should win approximately two-thirds of the time. (In American roulette, they have 0 and 00, so this actually makes your win rate less than two-thirds of the time.)
3. If you win, keep your bet the same.
4. If you lose, double your bet. Repeat until win. Once you win, decrease your bet to your original amount.

The overall goal of Prof's game was, and I quote:
"My hypothesis was, if I can find a game where you can stay in the game for the longest period of the time . . . well at some point you're up, you quit when you're up, it'll work."

OBVIOUS FLAWS:
1. Casinos impose betting limits. They're also aware of the double-your-bet theory, aka the Martingale system.
2. Tipping kills your EV here, unless you're playing for larger sums than $2 bets and only tipping $1. (I am unfamiliar with roulette tipping etiquette in the real world.)

Example w/ $2 as my base bet, and doubling both dozen bets when I lose:
https://casino.bodog.com/free-roulette.jsp

win
loss
win
win
win
win
loss
win
win
loss

Result: With $2 increments, I finished +$6.

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

This site contains other strategies besides the Martingale, such as doubling your bets when you win:
https://www.roulettetactics.com/roulette/strategy/

Sidehatch · Answer

Bump.

thirdperson · Answer

Long ago, Martingale system was invented for such games of chance.  It can be profitable if gambler avoids long losing streak and quits when profit has been achieved.

jv040 · Answer

I would use a 1 line labourche method bertting on black and red or 1-18 and 19-36. I would start out with 8#s and use aggressive lab line.

if black and red were used your line would look mlike this.

1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1

first bet would be 2$ on red if red hit then the # on the end and a # in the beginning would be crossed out and the bet would be on red again. the new line would look like this.

1-1-1-1-1-1

if black came up then take the 2$ that was lost and add the 1$ on the end and cross the # on the end out. the new line would look like this.

1-1-1-1-1-1-1-3

the bet would be on black.

the line doesn't increase if theres a loss. this is known as the agressive lab line.

so if black didn't come up then the bet would be 5 on red.

take the 4$ thats lost and add the # on the end to make 5 and cross it off.

theres a detailed description on the labourchere

https://platinumsportsinvesting.com/labourchere.aspx

if the bet gets too high eather start over or break the # lost down by eight or higher if you can. this is the way I've been playing on line. it works well with enough money to back you up.

1-18 and 19-36 works the same way.

dj_destroyer · Answer

Every game in the casino is -EV and no system in the world can change that. I&#x27;m surprised a professor would be telling his students otherwise.

James T · Answer

tried this once on an electronic roulette. the losing dozen
came in, get this, 18 consecutive times. of course i had stopped martingaling by then, table limit was $500 and i had started at the $1 minimum.

i believe to make a buck profit in such a sequence would've required a bet something like $650,000,000 x2 or something like that, too lazy to do the math.

but that's electronic roulette, more of a slot game than the real thing, though the potential of course is still there.

also, if betting two of the dozens, you have to triple your bet to show a profit of 1 unit after a hit, which gets the stakes sky high very fast after a few losses.

jv040 · Answer

I would never use any 12 my self. I think even and odd or red and black is the best bet.

electronic roulette kicks ass. the table limits are higher. in the casino I go to they use to have roulette 1$ stand alone machines and it had no limit as to how much could be bet.

now they have electronic roulette tables and the limit is 500$. I like electronic roulette more than roulette tables by far.

Sidehatch · Answer

Interesting answers, muchas gracias. . .

Sidehatch · Answer

FTR, I had a buddy who tried Martingale on red/black, and he Blacked'd 8x in a row in Vegas (unfortunately, he was betting red). Poor guy could afford exactly that, but I learned he brought his last 900 at the time and lost it all on that theory.

Still, it seems like two dozens would be winning more than 55% of the time, right? Even on an American table, with 0 and 00? Or am I missing something?

wizardofroz · Answer

&#xD;&#xA; Not if the professor has stock in that particular casino.

Snappa · Answer

THE GAME OF ROULLETTE IS UNBEATABLE. Yes, you can win in the short run with a system(and I have tried a few including Labouchere on red, on black, on odd, on even, etc.). But the longer you play this game, the more you will understand that you CANNOT win in the long run, and I have lost thousands proving this point to myself. I have sat in amazement while the opposite outcome from the one I had money on hits time after time, like once I was betting on red and black came up 13 times in a row. Or once I had odd and even came up 25 out of 28 times! And these streaks happen way more often than you would expect. I've played online and in land based casinos with similar results. It is a fun game to play, but please play it for fun only.

wizardofroz · Answer

&#xD;&#xA; As dj_destroyer basically said above, ALL casino games are -EV and are an exercise in futility.  Skill helps you lose slower in the long-run, but unfortunately, you will lose nonetheless.  I do not mean to sound so negative by being realistic, but casinos are a tax on the stupid and/or poor.  And I paid PLENTY of stupid tax back in the day trying to beat blackjack by playing correct basic strategy.  &#xD;&#xA; Expect to lose when you play ANY casino game, but have fun with your friends and quit when you lose your bankroll for the visit. And have a winning number in mind to quit if you are lucky enough to get on any hot streak.

wizardofroz · Answer

And FWIW, even though this is a "systems" section, casinos gladly welcome system players with open arms.

dj_destroyer · Answer

O ya, don&#x27;t get me wrong, I paid the stupid tax many of times before I finally learned.Ultimately, probabilities don&#x27;t falter or make mistakes... humans do; therefore stick to sports betting/poker and stay out of the casino!

paul_scholes · Answer

I was gonna say: Not everything at a casino is -EV. Got hit the poker tables after midnight--sober.

Sidehatch · Answer

Thx ---- good answers here.

lillefty · Answer

It is only a matter of time before the "improbable" happens. It won't happen everytime but it will happen and more often than not. I think everyone has tried all the ways to beat the casino and learned the lessons the hard way.

I was just outside the high roller room at Ceasars palace. I heard a guy walk in saying he was going to rob the place blind. I told my girlfriend here is a guy we want to bet the opposite of what he is doing. I watched him bet 3 reds in a row and lose. The guy said "let's go I got a lot of cash to win"..lol . Right then and there I said this guy is in for a beating and decided we were going to bet black against this guy. The guy got cleaned out in 7 more spins ..all black. It was 10 in a row at that point. I was only betting $100 a spin(table minimum). I just continued until a red came up and 19 blacks in a row spun before a red came up. I was in the right spot at the right time. The whole board was all black spins. The guy who lost all his $$$ was absolutely dumbfounded.

The Amazing thing was that the pit boss said he as seen longer streaks than that. He said he has seen streaks over 30 in a row a few times where they had to shut down the table to check the weight of the ball and the spin of the wheel.

wizardofroz · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by lillefty] &#xD;&#xA;It is only a matter of time before the "improbable" happens. It won&#x27;t happen everytime but it will happen and more often than not. I think everyone has tried all the ways to beat the casino and learned the lessons the hard way. &#xD;&#xA;I was just outside the high roller room at Ceasars palace. I heard a guy walk in saying he was going to rob the place blind. I told my girlfriend here is a guy we want to bet the opposite of what he is doing. I watched him bet 3 reds in a row and lose. The guy said "let&#x27;s go I got a lot of cash to win"..lol . Right then and there I said this guy is in for a beating and decided we were going to bet black against this guy. The guy got cleaned out in 7 more spins ..all black. It was 10 in a row at that point. I was only betting $100 a spin(table minimum). I just continued until a red came up and 19 blacks in a row spun before a red came up. I was in the right spot at the right time. The whole board was all black spins. The guy who lost all his $$$ was absolutely dumbfounded. &#xD;&#xA;The Amazing thing was that the pit boss said he as seen longer streaks than that. He said he has seen streaks over 30 in a row a few times where they had to shut down the table to check the weight of the ball and the spin of the wheel. &#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA; Good story.

Roulette strategy: Your thoughts on EV?

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