Quote Originally Posted by reynro03:
Hey all,
Just getting started with betting, taking it easy trying to soak up as much as I can. But, I would like to ask some pretty simple questions first. I don't know if this is the right place to post this, but it seemed a good place as it is part to do with "strategy."
1) Would there be any point in doing a straight, flat bet on a winning team for every game an entire season? For instance, take the Yankees last year and bet 100$ on them money line every game? Or would the house end up on top? (assume that you have 1000$ to start and they never lose 10 in a row for the first part of the season)
2) For someone with a limited budget ( 1000 or so) what would be the best types of money management?
3) For a beginner, is betting a larger amount on a 'sure thing' (I know there's no such thing) better than betting a little on a lot of things, or simply choosing the best available picks you feel will win and putting a moderate amount on them (1-2% of budget seems to be a good estimate based on some posts)
4) I know this one will probably see some differing answers, but: When you see a team on a winning streak, do you bet on or against them (I guess chase or fade?) and same with a losing streak?
5) Say you know a team is terrible on the road (for instance a team in MLB goes 25-56 on the road previous season, and hasn't improved) would it be profitable to bet against them all 81 games they are on the road the following season?
Sorry if these are ridiculous questions, but you gotta start somewhere I guess, Thanks
reynro
Just my opinions, others will differ I'm sure.
1.) No, it would not make sense. Here's why: When you're betting on a heavy favorite, such as the Yankees in your example, the money line is usually quite inflated. I've seen ML's on the Yankees, Rays, Phillies, and some other big-namers get into the -250 range this past season. Let's say you win 10 bets in a row on the Yankees with the ML being an average of -200 (which it will). Betting $100 per game, you would be +$500 for 10 wins. Then on the 11th game, you lose. This would take you down $100 and your profit would now be $400. 10 wins and 1 loss = $400 profit with $100 being the base bet. See where I'm going? 1 bad losing streak, or even a losing 3-game series, will wipe your profits clear down the drain. Over the course of a season, you'll end up down a significant amount. If all things were equal (meaning $100 wins $100), then sure! I'll take the Yanks every time. But things aren't equal
2.) It's widely accepted that your base wager should be between 1-2% of your bankroll, and never more than 5%. If you have a $1000 starting BR, then $10-20 should be the base-wager amount, with $50 being the absolute max. As your BR increases, so will your wagers. As it decreases, so will your wagers.
3.) There are no 'sure things' in professional sports. The point spread and money-lines almost always make things "fair". You'll consistently see teams covering the spread by .5 or 1 point, and over/under totals going either way by just a run, goal, or basket. Regardless of how strong you think a play may be, it should never compromise more than 5% of your bankroll, as mentioned in #2
4.) There's no clear-cut answer for this. regardless of what anyone tells you. Some cappers will tell you to fade, some will tell you to play. It'd be great to find the team BEFORE they go on a winning streak. Hell, we can all retire in 6 months then
5.) This again goes back to question #1. If a team is good or bad on the road, chances are the lines will be adjusted to compensate for the good/bad road/home record. You might see that the Pittsburgh Pirates were 20-54, 19-55, and 23-51 the last 3 years on the road. But betting against the Pirates will often not prove too profitable. If the line against the Pirates was -200 (which it will be, or even higher for that matter) against the Phillies, you would need to win roughly 70% of your games throughout the course of a season in order to turn a profit. 70% is almost an impossible number to reach. It's been done before, but very few and far between.
Hope this helped
and welcome to covers!
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