Okay, so the play was PHI @ -112 and that didn't work out too hot. Hamels started off pitching like SHIT and the Phils did win, but that is the SECOND day in a row where the play won, but by 1. This is exactly where the -1 system would've saved some anguish, but the juice was just too significant to do a -1 play. Would've been like a -190 anyway.
Looks like Boston again tomorrow. Screwed me over yesterday and won big today...so let's hope for the sweep.
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Okay, so the play was PHI @ -112 and that didn't work out too hot. Hamels started off pitching like SHIT and the Phils did win, but that is the SECOND day in a row where the play won, but by 1. This is exactly where the -1 system would've saved some anguish, but the juice was just too significant to do a -1 play. Would've been like a -190 anyway.
Looks like Boston again tomorrow. Screwed me over yesterday and won big today...so let's hope for the sweep.
Series 20 Game C BOS RL -1.5 @ -136 vs. KC System YTD: 19-0
Overall YTD: 19-21-4
Dear lord that is some serious juice for one of these plays. Considered splitting a bit with DET or someone like that but ended up deciding against it. The BOS game looks like so much of a gift I'm almost scared...hopefully the Boston bats don't pull what they did against Bannister...
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Series 20 Game C BOS RL -1.5 @ -136 vs. KC System YTD: 19-0
Overall YTD: 19-21-4
Dear lord that is some serious juice for one of these plays. Considered splitting a bit with DET or someone like that but ended up deciding against it. The BOS game looks like so much of a gift I'm almost scared...hopefully the Boston bats don't pull what they did against Bannister...
Well, it was a nice way to end the first half...Boston winning all the way back on Sunday. Made a few units off a few HR derby bets. Let's go for more system plays now..
Series 21 Game A ATL RL -1 @ -137 vs. NYM System YTD: 20-0 Overall YTD: 20-21-4
Okay, the plays were between Cleveland and Atlanta today. Cleveland definitely started off the bigger favorite but at least on MB, ATL has passed them. I love the ATL play honestly. Oliver Perez was lucky as hell to win vs. the Dodgers because they just couldn't score with RISP. He was walking WAY too many guys. In addition, Kuroda looked terrible. Lowe should pitch way better and Perez will get bombed by a team that destroys lefties.
Lee has had his problems lately, although I'm sure he'll straighten himself out soon. Cleveland's also not hitting the ball that well and Olson is somewhat underrated. Although this jettisoning between the pen and rotation might hurt him right now...
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Well, it was a nice way to end the first half...Boston winning all the way back on Sunday. Made a few units off a few HR derby bets. Let's go for more system plays now..
Series 21 Game A ATL RL -1 @ -137 vs. NYM System YTD: 20-0 Overall YTD: 20-21-4
Okay, the plays were between Cleveland and Atlanta today. Cleveland definitely started off the bigger favorite but at least on MB, ATL has passed them. I love the ATL play honestly. Oliver Perez was lucky as hell to win vs. the Dodgers because they just couldn't score with RISP. He was walking WAY too many guys. In addition, Kuroda looked terrible. Lowe should pitch way better and Perez will get bombed by a team that destroys lefties.
Lee has had his problems lately, although I'm sure he'll straighten himself out soon. Cleveland's also not hitting the ball that well and Olson is somewhat underrated. Although this jettisoning between the pen and rotation might hurt him right now...
Series 22 Game A STL RL -1.5 @ +114 vs. ARI System YTD: 21-0 Overall YTD: 21-21-4
It was between NYY and STL today. NYY's line looks inflated to me. I don't trust French and Burnett has been money, but that's large. I love the Carp vs. Garland matchup and the Cards' bats are heating up a bit.
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Nice bottom eighth run to win by 2 there.
Series 22 Game A STL RL -1.5 @ +114 vs. ARI System YTD: 21-0 Overall YTD: 21-21-4
It was between NYY and STL today. NYY's line looks inflated to me. I don't trust French and Burnett has been money, but that's large. I love the Carp vs. Garland matchup and the Cards' bats are heating up a bit.
07/18: Series 22 Game A LAD RL -1.5 @ PK vs. ARI System YTD: 22-0 Overall YTD: 22-21-4
Line sucks and it's probably getting better actaully but this is what I locked it up as. Kershaw's going for the Dodgers. Hopefully Berkman is out again. Hampton's a gas can and hopefully will get exposed. Let's just hope young Clayton is settled down and can find the strike zone tonight. Would be surprising to see the Dodgers drop another one here...but the Astros are pretty hot.
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07/18: Series 22 Game A LAD RL -1.5 @ PK vs. ARI System YTD: 22-0 Overall YTD: 22-21-4
Line sucks and it's probably getting better actaully but this is what I locked it up as. Kershaw's going for the Dodgers. Hopefully Berkman is out again. Hampton's a gas can and hopefully will get exposed. Let's just hope young Clayton is settled down and can find the strike zone tonight. Would be surprising to see the Dodgers drop another one here...but the Astros are pretty hot.
07/19:
Series 24 Game A
STL RL -1.5 @+105 vs. ARI (pending Matchbook request)
System YTD: 23-0
Overall YTD: 23-21-4
By the way, last post had a mistake. It was actually Series 23 Game A.
Anyway, today is a potential two play day (ATL vs. NYM being the
second). Pineiro has pitched well lately and Petit is as hittable and
as big a gas can as it comes. I remember when he was a hot prospect
with little stuff but great results and good command and deception
coming through the NYM system. Well, times have changed, buddy, and the
scouts who guessed he wouldn't have success at higher levels were right
(at least for now). STL is going to try to close the series strong and
I think they take this one.
GL all.
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Thanks, Carlos Lee.
07/19:
Series 24 Game A
STL RL -1.5 @+105 vs. ARI (pending Matchbook request)
System YTD: 23-0
Overall YTD: 23-21-4
By the way, last post had a mistake. It was actually Series 23 Game A.
Anyway, today is a potential two play day (ATL vs. NYM being the
second). Pineiro has pitched well lately and Petit is as hittable and
as big a gas can as it comes. I remember when he was a hot prospect
with little stuff but great results and good command and deception
coming through the NYM system. Well, times have changed, buddy, and the
scouts who guessed he wouldn't have success at higher levels were right
(at least for now). STL is going to try to close the series strong and
I think they take this one.
I am shocked that STL could only muster up two against one of THE worst SPs (and also a below average pen) in Arizona. Literally appalled. Playing ATL -1.5 as Game B. Watch Vazquez get destroyed by Wright and the AAA Band
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I am shocked that STL could only muster up two against one of THE worst SPs (and also a below average pen) in Arizona. Literally appalled. Playing ATL -1.5 as Game B. Watch Vazquez get destroyed by Wright and the AAA Band
07/19:
Series 25 Game A
ATL -1 @ -120 vs. SF
System YTD: 24-0
Overall YTD: 24-22-4
ATL again. It was them or the Yanks and while the Yanks should win, too, I like this spot for the Braves. Sanchez is coming off his no hitter and will come back down to earth vs. a team that loves hitting lefties. Sanchez has also been horrid on the road this year. Young Hanson has been money all year and let's see if the Braves can extend this successful homestand tonight.
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for ATL.
07/19:
Series 25 Game A
ATL -1 @ -120 vs. SF
System YTD: 24-0
Overall YTD: 24-22-4
ATL again. It was them or the Yanks and while the Yanks should win, too, I like this spot for the Braves. Sanchez is coming off his no hitter and will come back down to earth vs. a team that loves hitting lefties. Sanchez has also been horrid on the road this year. Young Hanson has been money all year and let's see if the Braves can extend this successful homestand tonight.
Yeha, the date on yesterday's play should've been the 20th. Stupid little mistakes I'm making. Hanson pitched well. Should've only given up 2 ER but McClouth literally lost a ball in the lights to give up a triple which led to a run to score. But then the Braves started destroying bottom 7th and all was well again.
07/21:
Series 26 Game A
HOU -1 @ +104 vs. STL
System YTD: 25-0
Overall YTD: 25-22-4
Okay, this play definitely goes against many of this system's ideals, as this is not the biggest favorite on the board by a fair margin. But I love this pick. Wandy has been a rock at home this year. STL cannot hit lefties to save their LIVES. Hopefully the new leftykiller addition Mark DeRosa still isn't at 100% yet. And Albert is avoided correctly. The rest of them can't do crap against Wandy. Wellemeyer is terrible. And as you all know, I love playing the -1 when it is an option, especially for the home team, as it makes the 1 run win a push.
Lowe is going against SF, who's fielding another shitty offense. Sadowski will have no long-term major league success but he has caught hitters off guard and could very well do so again. There's very little value in the ATL play again. Mitre is scary against an apt Baltimore hitting club. BOS is an option, of course, too...but I would rather take the -1 here. I'm actually playing spot plays against both COL and DET...shows how mcuh faith I have in them.
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Yeha, the date on yesterday's play should've been the 20th. Stupid little mistakes I'm making. Hanson pitched well. Should've only given up 2 ER but McClouth literally lost a ball in the lights to give up a triple which led to a run to score. But then the Braves started destroying bottom 7th and all was well again.
07/21:
Series 26 Game A
HOU -1 @ +104 vs. STL
System YTD: 25-0
Overall YTD: 25-22-4
Okay, this play definitely goes against many of this system's ideals, as this is not the biggest favorite on the board by a fair margin. But I love this pick. Wandy has been a rock at home this year. STL cannot hit lefties to save their LIVES. Hopefully the new leftykiller addition Mark DeRosa still isn't at 100% yet. And Albert is avoided correctly. The rest of them can't do crap against Wandy. Wellemeyer is terrible. And as you all know, I love playing the -1 when it is an option, especially for the home team, as it makes the 1 run win a push.
Lowe is going against SF, who's fielding another shitty offense. Sadowski will have no long-term major league success but he has caught hitters off guard and could very well do so again. There's very little value in the ATL play again. Mitre is scary against an apt Baltimore hitting club. BOS is an option, of course, too...but I would rather take the -1 here. I'm actually playing spot plays against both COL and DET...shows how mcuh faith I have in them.
Note: Yankees -142 RL -1.5 was Series 27 Game A, which won.
07/22:
Series 28 Game A
LAD -1 @ -132 vs. CIN
System YTD: 27-0
Overall YTD: 27-22-4
Yanks were an easy pick earlier. Berken has been subpar all year and AJ has been on. O's proved to be no problem at all, at least until Bruney tried to blow it at the end. Still worked out quite wel, though.
Playing the Dodgers tonight. Cincinnati has been getting owned out west and hopefully nothing changes. Dodgers' ace takes the mound. He's been struggling a little lately which explains why this line isn't in the low to mid 200s (ML). But reports are that his mechanics are fine, his velocity is fine...so he should hopefully get back in form. And even if CB gives up a few, Arroyo is nothing special. I really think his little 16 IP scoreless streak is going to end tonight. Definitely reaching a bit there. :)
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Note: Yankees -142 RL -1.5 was Series 27 Game A, which won.
07/22:
Series 28 Game A
LAD -1 @ -132 vs. CIN
System YTD: 27-0
Overall YTD: 27-22-4
Yanks were an easy pick earlier. Berken has been subpar all year and AJ has been on. O's proved to be no problem at all, at least until Bruney tried to blow it at the end. Still worked out quite wel, though.
Playing the Dodgers tonight. Cincinnati has been getting owned out west and hopefully nothing changes. Dodgers' ace takes the mound. He's been struggling a little lately which explains why this line isn't in the low to mid 200s (ML). But reports are that his mechanics are fine, his velocity is fine...so he should hopefully get back in form. And even if CB gives up a few, Arroyo is nothing special. I really think his little 16 IP scoreless streak is going to end tonight. Definitely reaching a bit there. :)
So here in my world, we do things differently. Tomorrow, there are two incredible plays. NYY and PHI. Both are playing very good ball right now. NYY is catching fire at the right time...overtaking Boston. Philly was on a roll before running into C-Zam. But they are both at home sleeping tonight while OAK and SD, respectively, are traveling from the West Coast. Yeah, they played relatively early today, but still probably got in sometime tonight.
Anyway, SD hits lefties at a .229 clip with a .668 OPS. Not that they hit much better overall (.231), but .229 is bad.
OAK hits lefties at a .229 clip with a .655 OPS. Overall: .249 with a .698 OPS. These numbers are gonna go up by a decent amount after today (I believe those werne't updated), but rocking Glen Perkins for one inning isn't exactly substantial evidence.
Correia is a scrapper but nothing special. Mazzaro is a kid who the league is beginning to get a better read on and catch up with.
So to the point...I am going to start two lines for 1 unit each with NYY and PHI. If both win, cool...two series cleared. If they both lose, I'll probably chase one and then when that clears, start chasing another. If one wins, one loses, one series win...and a Game B play for the other.
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So here in my world, we do things differently. Tomorrow, there are two incredible plays. NYY and PHI. Both are playing very good ball right now. NYY is catching fire at the right time...overtaking Boston. Philly was on a roll before running into C-Zam. But they are both at home sleeping tonight while OAK and SD, respectively, are traveling from the West Coast. Yeah, they played relatively early today, but still probably got in sometime tonight.
Anyway, SD hits lefties at a .229 clip with a .668 OPS. Not that they hit much better overall (.231), but .229 is bad.
OAK hits lefties at a .229 clip with a .655 OPS. Overall: .249 with a .698 OPS. These numbers are gonna go up by a decent amount after today (I believe those werne't updated), but rocking Glen Perkins for one inning isn't exactly substantial evidence.
Correia is a scrapper but nothing special. Mazzaro is a kid who the league is beginning to get a better read on and catch up with.
So to the point...I am going to start two lines for 1 unit each with NYY and PHI. If both win, cool...two series cleared. If they both lose, I'll probably chase one and then when that clears, start chasing another. If one wins, one loses, one series win...and a Game B play for the other.
The roll comes to a halt yesterday as Downs gives up the tie to lose
vs. Tampa. Great game pitched by Doc though and I'm glad I was heavy on
the under.
Series 32 Game B
NYY RL -1.5 @ -144 vs. OAK
System YTD: 31-0
Overall YTD: 31-23-4
Oakland hits lefties worse now with Holliday gone. They still suck.
Looks like coming out to the East Coast has demoralized them (and also
it seems like playing the reeling Twins helped them). Yankees are flat
out rolling at this point and the bats should speak loudly.
I remember one game I got burnt by Gio @ Cleveland when he pitched a gem, but hopefully that doesn't happen again here.
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The roll comes to a halt yesterday as Downs gives up the tie to lose
vs. Tampa. Great game pitched by Doc though and I'm glad I was heavy on
the under.
Series 32 Game B
NYY RL -1.5 @ -144 vs. OAK
System YTD: 31-0
Overall YTD: 31-23-4
Oakland hits lefties worse now with Holliday gone. They still suck.
Looks like coming out to the East Coast has demoralized them (and also
it seems like playing the reeling Twins helped them). Yankees are flat
out rolling at this point and the bats should speak loudly.
I remember one game I got burnt by Gio @ Cleveland when he pitched a gem, but hopefully that doesn't happen again here.
Game B: Lost NYY Game C was split: Lost SEA Won BOS...my stupid math skills did this. I had the split play with SEA and BOS. So I covered the half of the split. I also then covered the other "to win" half unit from SEA as well as half of what I lost on Seattle. Not sure why I added in the "to win" part, because I didn't account for some extra $ lost from the other games.
So what do the numbers say? I am down 1.31 units. So tomorrow, the chase is for that 1.31 units plus another 1 "to win" unit.
Essentially this is like a Game B. Certainly better than the situation I was in earlier.
Not sure what I like tomorrow. Harden doesn't pitch too well during day games. Might go with COL because Sadowski is a horrific pitcher. Will let ya'll know tomorrow.
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So here's a little recap for today.
Game B: Lost NYY Game C was split: Lost SEA Won BOS...my stupid math skills did this. I had the split play with SEA and BOS. So I covered the half of the split. I also then covered the other "to win" half unit from SEA as well as half of what I lost on Seattle. Not sure why I added in the "to win" part, because I didn't account for some extra $ lost from the other games.
So what do the numbers say? I am down 1.31 units. So tomorrow, the chase is for that 1.31 units plus another 1 "to win" unit.
Essentially this is like a Game B. Certainly better than the situation I was in earlier.
Not sure what I like tomorrow. Harden doesn't pitch too well during day games. Might go with COL because Sadowski is a horrific pitcher. Will let ya'll know tomorrow.
Series 32 Game "B" (see above for description of yesterday)
COL RL -1.5 @ +102 vs. SF
System YTD: 31-0
Overall YTD: 31-23-4
Not sure how I should record this in overall. In terms of overall money it hasn't really impacted it. Maybe one win and one loss. Not sure. Doesn't really matter too much honestly.
Cook takes the mound against Ryan Sadowski. Sadowski's luck is starting to run out (ATL start yesterday) and he has been worse on the road. The guy is an AAAA journeyman. More power to him being in the bigs, but he doesn't belong here. Hopefully Cook has the sinker working today and can shut the Giants down.
BOL.
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Series 32 Game "B" (see above for description of yesterday)
COL RL -1.5 @ +102 vs. SF
System YTD: 31-0
Overall YTD: 31-23-4
Not sure how I should record this in overall. In terms of overall money it hasn't really impacted it. Maybe one win and one loss. Not sure. Doesn't really matter too much honestly.
Cook takes the mound against Ryan Sadowski. Sadowski's luck is starting to run out (ATL start yesterday) and he has been worse on the road. The guy is an AAAA journeyman. More power to him being in the bigs, but he doesn't belong here. Hopefully Cook has the sinker working today and can shut the Giants down.
07/27: Series 33 Game A
BOS RL -1.5 @ -142 vs. OAK
System YTD: 32-0
Overall YTD: 32-23-4
Laying serious juice but Beckett is still rolling pretty good right now despite the last tough-luck loss. Oakland can't hit and let's hope the kid Cahill is rattled in Fenway.
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Finished that chase off.
07/27: Series 33 Game A
BOS RL -1.5 @ -142 vs. OAK
System YTD: 32-0
Overall YTD: 32-23-4
Laying serious juice but Beckett is still rolling pretty good right now despite the last tough-luck loss. Oakland can't hit and let's hope the kid Cahill is rattled in Fenway.
Okay, the Red Sox are up 8-3 headed to the top of the 9th. Daniel Bard just shut the hell out of OAK throwing freaking 98-100 MPH gas on that fastball. What a stud. I really wish he hadn't gone to a team I despise where he is blocked at closer. Imagine him on a shitty team...he would be the 9th inning stopper all the way.
But anyway, I'm going to the gym. I'm assuming this will be a win but stranger things have happened. Knock on wood.
Series 34 Game A SEA RL -1 @ -119 vs. TOR System YTD: 32-0 pending BOS Overall YTD 32-23-4 pending BOS
Interesting pick here but the King is here and Romero is typically overrated IMO. Results are there...and people generally think he's a high-end prospect because he was a top-10 pick, but his stuff is good but not great. Not the biggest upside pick that year, IMO. His ERA stands at 3.44 but his FIP is 4.5. I think he'll stick as a long-term middle of the rotation guy, but the kid is no ace. Let's hope the TOR bats are quiet and hopefully perhaps distracted by the Halladay trade rumors.
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Okay, the Red Sox are up 8-3 headed to the top of the 9th. Daniel Bard just shut the hell out of OAK throwing freaking 98-100 MPH gas on that fastball. What a stud. I really wish he hadn't gone to a team I despise where he is blocked at closer. Imagine him on a shitty team...he would be the 9th inning stopper all the way.
But anyway, I'm going to the gym. I'm assuming this will be a win but stranger things have happened. Knock on wood.
Series 34 Game A SEA RL -1 @ -119 vs. TOR System YTD: 32-0 pending BOS Overall YTD 32-23-4 pending BOS
Interesting pick here but the King is here and Romero is typically overrated IMO. Results are there...and people generally think he's a high-end prospect because he was a top-10 pick, but his stuff is good but not great. Not the biggest upside pick that year, IMO. His ERA stands at 3.44 but his FIP is 4.5. I think he'll stick as a long-term middle of the rotation guy, but the kid is no ace. Let's hope the TOR bats are quiet and hopefully perhaps distracted by the Halladay trade rumors.
stupid, stupid bet to make. honestly i didn't expect felix to get lit up as he did (most of the damage was done by the BOTTOM of the order, too), but I should've stuck to the system which clearly says one play a day. Getting greedy was a bad idea and hopefully it doesn't end up costing me.
I think it'll be a split line tomorrow with BOS and NYY. NYY is a heavy road favorite with BOS a heavy home favorite..
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stupid, stupid bet to make. honestly i didn't expect felix to get lit up as he did (most of the damage was done by the BOTTOM of the order, too), but I should've stuck to the system which clearly says one play a day. Getting greedy was a bad idea and hopefully it doesn't end up costing me.
I think it'll be a split line tomorrow with BOS and NYY. NYY is a heavy road favorite with BOS a heavy home favorite..
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Nice bottom eighth run to win by 2 there.
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