Real mathematics

anyone ever made some real math on system bets, no martingale no doubling..?
acquaintance (a pro gambler) gave me an advice about betting, he said that 99% of people makes same mistake - they think that they can invent something that bookies have not already paid to someone smart to calculate for them.. and the only way that one can be profitable in the long term is to guess a coin toss 51% of time, with appropriate investing plan for extracting maximum money. he said that he cant help me by pointing out the winners to me, but gave me address and said that its a gift from him to me.. he wrote advancedbetcalc.com on my biscuit box :), so i went there and found something that showed me that - there is a difference between a somebody who knows his job and the rest of the people among some are trying to succeed by inventing some homemade double-or-lose systems (me included)...

any thoughts?

Does anybody knows what system (accumulator) should I play to get max money out if I m going to hit 6 out of 10 two times and 7 out of 10 one time (even odds)?

Apparently it can be calculated in that calculator..

You cap game by game, that is the only way to handicap.  There are not shortcuts and you are going to win in the long term betting blind. That is what you are doing with almost every single chase type system. 

hi, thanks for you answer. the thing is - i had 6500 picks and yield +5%, avrg odds +180 at standard deviation +- 4, so I would say prety constant..
I would like to go pro - but that will have to wait :)
My question was abot that calculator, it has some strange ideas and they look good. But who can tell..

ok, i've been playing with calc and found out that proper system would be 3 out of 10. The winnings would be 4.99 times what i've invested..

Hey, when I hit the advanced button - the calculator says: recommended system 4/10 and invest 75.6%.

  wow, this looks usefull.. :)

This calculator really looks advanced, the title doesn't lie :)

AdvancedBetCalc

I manage to work some excel sheet simulation - and this stuff really seems to be - what calc says it will be..

I made over 5000 lines (simulated wagers) in excel.. and when I reload document it is like 5000 new ones, still works. :))

Now, let's start picking winners.. and make us some money :))

I'm really thrilled with this, it seems that this could be kind of a breakthrough in betting - for me it is, because I just calculated that if I had been using this... well let's just say +5% (that I had so far) looks so small now :)
here are the instructions: youtube.com/watch?v=7IO99UGCPKc

Although the idea is old, the way to calculate all that (quick and easy) is new. That calc is few months old...

any comments?..

great article: omgbokie.blogabet.com

whats with this "chase epidemic"? Nobody plays accumulator with Kelly investing anymore?

I've been trying this for a month now and it is solid..

Lipps, you have to take under consideration, those that play chase systems have no alternative, they simply do not have the understanding of the methedology to successfuly handicap a MLB game, but love baseball, and even more, they love to bet on baseball, actually chase systems are more or less a hobby to them, and when they get something polished at the surface, they find chasing losses on a 1/6 ratio really has no value on dividends. basing a system on dinasour trends, and then betting them in the blind with no sonsideration to 'situational' play just can't be taken serious, nor is it justified to the winning edge.

no, not on a constant basis, but i found that this Advancedbetcalc calculates this and i was wondering why most people chooses chase over something that has scientific basis... because if i was going to guess 6 out of 10 +100, what is the best system that i could use to get ritch.. :) - just being curious