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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    Puppy on Labby

    1234 Next Last»
    esposito10304
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    1234 Next Last»
     
    esposito10304
    esposito10304
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    Posts: 321
    Posted: May. 7, 2019 - 5:55 AM ET #1

    Hi everybody,

    Newbie here, trying a system based on small dogs, between -105 and 109 (1.961/2.09 european) and some kind of custom labby line. Gonna play every team with an average winning rate below 45% or between 50% and 62% (yeah, I did my sdql homeworks but it makes sense, eventually). 

    I will try to post plays on Covers but, if not, have a look a the sheet.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1io4fET7OFj37JIvpWVUSfqC3GWMXwU_6OK9OuUo_hZw/edit?usp=sharing

    Brewers and Padres won yesterday. Twins was not a play as they were 62,5%!

    Tonight, maybe Giants, Brewers and Reds but I'd rather play as late as possible (depending on my schedule and considering the fact that I live in Europe).

    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    Hi everybody,

    Newbie here, trying a system based on small dogs, between -105 and 109 (1.961/2.09 european) and some kind of custom labby line. Gonna play every team with an average winning rate below 45% or between 50% and 62% (yeah, I did my sdql homeworks but it makes sense, eventually). 

    I will try to post plays on Covers but, if not, have a look a the sheet.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1io4fET7OFj37JIvpWVUSfqC3GWMXwU_6OK9OuUo_hZw/edit?usp=sharing

    Brewers and Padres won yesterday. Twins was not a play as they were 62,5%!

    Tonight, maybe Giants, Brewers and Reds but I'd rather play as late as possible (depending on my schedule and considering the fact that I live in Europe).

     
    esposito10304
    esposito10304
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    Posted: May. 7, 2019 - 10:13 AM ET #2

    05/07 (odds/risk):

     

    @MIL 2.03 / 0.583u

    @STL 2.00 / 0.6

    SF 2.09 / 0.55 

    CIN 2.07 / 0.561

     

    Don't know yet if I have to be careful with line movements...in that way, I don't like Sf (and Stl) bets that much

    Reply

    05/07 (odds/risk):

     

    @MIL 2.03 / 0.583u

    @STL 2.00 / 0.6

    SF 2.09 / 0.55 

    CIN 2.07 / 0.561

     

    Don't know yet if I have to be careful with line movements...in that way, I don't like Sf (and Stl) bets that much

     
    esposito10304
    esposito10304
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    Posted: May. 8, 2019 - 5:33 AM ET #3

    MIL, SF  
    STL, CIN 

    YTD: +1.239u
    Reply
    MIL, SF  
    STL, CIN 

    YTD: +1.239u
     
    esposito10304
    esposito10304
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    Posted: May. 8, 2019 - 10:51 AM ET #4

    TOR 1.99 / 0.89u
    CIN 1.98 / 0.899u

    Reply
    TOR 1.99 / 0.89u
    CIN 1.98 / 0.899u

     
    esposito10304
    esposito10304
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    Posted: May. 8, 2019 - 5:58 PM ET #5

    Adding Angels 2.04
    Reply
    Adding Angels 2.04
     
    esposito10304
    esposito10304
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    Posted: May. 9, 2019 - 3:25 AM ET #6

    TOR and CIN 

    -0.55u

    Angels shouldn't have been a play, forgot to check their win %, which was 45,7...I took them off the record. 
    Reply
    TOR and CIN 

    -0.55u

    Angels shouldn't have been a play, forgot to check their win %, which was 45,7...I took them off the record. 
     
    esposito10304
    esposito10304
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    Posted: May. 9, 2019 - 2:13 PM ET #7

    05/09:

    ARI 1.961 / 1.248u

    Reply

    05/09:

    ARI 1.961 / 1.248u

     
    esposito10304
    esposito10304
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    Posted: May. 10, 2019 - 1:30 AM ET #8

    ARI  

    YTD: +0.694
    Reply
    ARI  

    YTD: +0.694
     
    esposito10304
    esposito10304
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    Posted: May. 10, 2019 - 2:18 PM ET #9

    No play today, I guess. Brewers are now +104, few minutes before start, but they were above +110 since yesterday, more or less, so I pass.

    Reply

    No play today, I guess. Brewers are now +104, few minutes before start, but they were above +110 since yesterday, more or less, so I pass.

     
    esposito10304
    esposito10304
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    Posted: May. 11, 2019 - 9:35 AM ET #10

    Brewers won yesterday, wrong move. Have to play early today so DBacks attack:

    ARIZONA  2.04 / 1.144u

    Keep an eye on Giants, Royals and Nationals but these are teams I don't like so much betting on (A's are 45%)

    Reply

    Brewers won yesterday, wrong move. Have to play early today so DBacks attack:

    ARIZONA  2.04 / 1.144u

    Keep an eye on Giants, Royals and Nationals but these are teams I don't like so much betting on (A's are 45%)

     
    esposito10304
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    Posted: May. 12, 2019 - 7:38 AM ET #11

    ARIZONA an_burningbag

    -0.495u

     

    I'll be on the road today so won't be able to post here for the earliest games.

    Reply

    ARIZONA an_burningbag

    -0.495u

     

    I'll be on the road today so won't be able to post here for the earliest games.

     
    esposito10304
    esposito10304
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    Posted: May. 12, 2019 - 1:30 PM ET #12

    A bit late but I played White Sox, Royals, Indians and Padres. Maybe Dbacks later
    Reply
    A bit late but I played White Sox, Royals, Indians and Padres. Maybe Dbacks later
     
    esposito10304
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    Posted: May. 13, 2019 - 4:19 AM ET #13

    Indians, White Sox moneybag

    Padres, Royals, DBacks an_burningbag

    -0.610u

    Reply

    Indians, White Sox moneybag

    Padres, Royals, DBacks an_burningbag

    -0.610u

     
    esposito10304
    esposito10304
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    Posted: May. 15, 2019 - 1:00 AM ET #14

    Sorry guys, the spreadsheet is blocked for now because I'm trying to figure out new systems. This present one is...so to say...boring.

    Looking for something with home favorites (from -150 to -105) and another one base on series & run differentials.

    Reply

    Sorry guys, the spreadsheet is blocked for now because I'm trying to figure out new systems. This present one is...so to say...boring.

    Looking for something with home favorites (from -150 to -105) and another one base on series & run differentials.

     
    esposito10304
    esposito10304
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    Posted: Aug. 2, 2019 - 9:00 AM ET #15

    I bring that thread up instead of posting in MLB section. It's so sad seeing this almighty S&S section abandoned.

    Well, simple rules: small dogs on ML, home and away, with increasing wagers to cover losses (some kind of esoteric labby line money management). I never had to bet more than 4% of the BK so I can surely say my MM is quite conservative.

    Link to the sheet of post #1 is active so that you could follow the picks if not posted here (and at the same occasion, you can check my bets log mayhem of june/july...various tests but still up 14u on july 31st...)

    I play around 10/11 AM ET to avoid rollercoaster line movements.

    See you soon

    Reply

    I bring that thread up instead of posting in MLB section. It's so sad seeing this almighty S&S section abandoned.

    Well, simple rules: small dogs on ML, home and away, with increasing wagers to cover losses (some kind of esoteric labby line money management). I never had to bet more than 4% of the BK so I can surely say my MM is quite conservative.

    Link to the sheet of post #1 is active so that you could follow the picks if not posted here (and at the same occasion, you can check my bets log mayhem of june/july...various tests but still up 14u on july 31st...)

    I play around 10/11 AM ET to avoid rollercoaster line movements.

    See you soon

     
    esposito10304
    esposito10304
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    Posted: Aug. 2, 2019 - 11:02 AM ET #16

    1-4

     

    Pirates +103 / 1.59%

     

    Oh boy, can't say I like it but let's stick to the strategy.

     

    Reply

    1-4

     

    Pirates +103 / 1.59%

     

    Oh boy, can't say I like it but let's stick to the strategy.

     

     
    esposito10304
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    Posted: Aug. 3, 2019 - 10:59 AM ET #17

    2-4

     

    Tigers +102 / 1.59%

     

    Seriously, Tigers ? Confidence = an_nailbiter

    Yankees gm1 line is moving around +104 and +109 but...hum...don't really get why they're not favored tonight

    Reply

    2-4

     

    Tigers +102 / 1.59%

     

    Seriously, Tigers ? Confidence = an_nailbiter

    Yankees gm1 line is moving around +104 and +109 but...hum...don't really get why they're not favored tonight

     
    esposito10304
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    Posted: Aug. 3, 2019 - 11:01 AM ET #18

    No pain, no gain

     

    Yankees +103 / 1.57%

    Reply

    No pain, no gain

     

    Yankees +103 / 1.57%

     
    esposito10304
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    Posted: Aug. 4, 2019 - 2:47 AM ET #19

    3-5

     

    That was close, 10th inning loss for Tigers, F5 were good. Well, Rangers are clearly my black cat this season. And I almost put a wager on Baltimore. Almost.

    Reply

    3-5

     

    That was close, 10th inning loss for Tigers, F5 were good. Well, Rangers are clearly my black cat this season. And I almost put a wager on Baltimore. Almost.

     
    esposito10304
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    Posted: Aug. 4, 2019 - 9:45 AM ET #20

    Red Sox -102 / 2.18%

    Reply

    Red Sox -102 / 2.18%

     
    esposito10304
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    Posted: Aug. 5, 2019 - 10:01 AM ET #21

    3-6

     

    Twins -105 / 1.98%

    Phillies -104 / 1.96%

     

    I messed up my percentage here, should have been slightly higher...nevermind, this is what I actually bet.

    Last week was my 3rd negative week since june 1st: -0,4%... far from the -6,9% of 1st week of july though.

    Reply

    3-6

     

    Twins -105 / 1.98%

    Phillies -104 / 1.96%

     

    I messed up my percentage here, should have been slightly higher...nevermind, this is what I actually bet.

    Last week was my 3rd negative week since june 1st: -0,4%... far from the -6,9% of 1st week of july though.

     
    esposito10304
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    Posted: Aug. 6, 2019 - 10:24 AM ET #22

    5-6

     

    White Sox +103 / 1.57% (Game 1)

    Reply

    5-6

     

    White Sox +103 / 1.57% (Game 1)

     
    esposito10304
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    Posted: Aug. 7, 2019 - 10:18 AM ET #23

    6-6

     

    Braves -107 / 1.18%

    Giants -101 / 1.11% 

    Reply

    6-6

     

    Braves -107 / 1.18%

    Giants -101 / 1.11% 

     
    esposito10304
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    Posted: Aug. 7, 2019 - 8:06 PM ET #24

    I missed the line on Tex/Cle gm 2... it's annoying because Cleveland opened as a dog exactly within my odd range. 1-1 on the night though but I hate missing winning bets like that.

    Reply

    I missed the line on Tex/Cle gm 2... it's annoying because Cleveland opened as a dog exactly within my odd range. 1-1 on the night though but I hate missing winning bets like that.

     
     
    esposito10304
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    Posted: Aug. 8, 2019 - 9:39 AM ET #25

    7-7

     

    Indians -103 / 1.69%

    Padres +101 / 1.63%

     

     

    Reply

    7-7

     

    Indians -103 / 1.69%

    Padres +101 / 1.63%

     

     

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