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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    Pts off turnovers?

    deadgoneblitz26
    kenyonlv
    Stake24
    Wizerguy
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    deadgoneblitz26
    deadgoneblitz26
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2008 - 10:43 PM ET #1

    Does anyone know of a place where I can get a Points off turnovers stat for NFL teams without going through each game and figuring it out by scrolling through play by play? Please let me know
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    Does anyone know of a place where I can get a Points off turnovers stat for NFL teams without going through each game and figuring it out by scrolling through play by play? Please let me know
     
    kenyonlv
    kenyonlv
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2008 - 10:59 PM ET #2

    If you just need the total number by each team and not by game you can find it on NFL . com  Go to Team Stats > Defense > Tackles ...  It has # of TD's for interceptions and # for fumbles.  If the defense doesn't score I have no idea where you'd find that ... ie offense scores after getting ball on 5 yd line after int ...
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    If you just need the total number by each team and not by game you can find it on NFL . com  Go to Team Stats > Defense > Tackles ...  It has # of TD's for interceptions and # for fumbles.  If the defense doesn't score I have no idea where you'd find that ... ie offense scores after getting ball on 5 yd line after int ...
     
    deadgoneblitz26
    deadgoneblitz26
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2008 - 11:16 PM ET #3

    Yeah the latter is exactly what I'm looking for.  The Defensive TD's would not be a complete sample.  Thanks for the post though...I've been reading lately about your systems, especially the NFL Totals one...Really like it, best of luck.  How would you put a point value to Turnover differential? Or even penalty yards for that matter?  Any ideas let me know, I appreciate it.
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    Yeah the latter is exactly what I'm looking for.  The Defensive TD's would not be a complete sample.  Thanks for the post though...I've been reading lately about your systems, especially the NFL Totals one...Really like it, best of luck.  How would you put a point value to Turnover differential? Or even penalty yards for that matter?  Any ideas let me know, I appreciate it.
     
    kenyonlv
    kenyonlv
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2008 - 11:50 PM ET #4

    That will be difficult ... some TO's are as good as punts.  I think Favre just heaves it out there on 3rd down as a punt sometimes.  Would you only call it "points off TO's" if they turn it over in the own half of field?  So it is subjective and you will have to develop that stat yourself.
     
    I found a strong correlation between visitor TO's and home points, so each visitor TO is worth between 2.7 and 5.0 points in my system.  Home teams seem to be able to "absorb" TO's better.  GL on your system ...
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    That will be difficult ... some TO's are as good as punts.  I think Favre just heaves it out there on 3rd down as a punt sometimes.  Would you only call it "points off TO's" if they turn it over in the own half of field?  So it is subjective and you will have to develop that stat yourself.
     
    I found a strong correlation between visitor TO's and home points, so each visitor TO is worth between 2.7 and 5.0 points in my system.  Home teams seem to be able to "absorb" TO's better.  GL on your system ...
     
    deadgoneblitz26
    deadgoneblitz26
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    Posted: Dec. 6, 2008 - 12:19 AM ET #5

    Hahah that was hilarious about Favre hahah...Um I consider true "points off TO's" to be any turnover that results in points, whether it be a return on that play, or if the immediate drive after the takeaway results in a score.  So if a team intercepts the ball whether they start that drive on their own 2 yard line or the opponent 2 yard line, if they get points on that current drive I would deem it "points off TO's."

    I do see what you are saying, whats the difference between a interception with 80 yards left to score, or a punt where the defense is in the same situation anyway...hmmm, interesting...

    I'm trying to figure out if Turnovers, or Penalties and all those extracurriculars will add any value to the system, or just waste my time...Thanks for you input...


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    Hahah that was hilarious about Favre hahah...Um I consider true "points off TO's" to be any turnover that results in points, whether it be a return on that play, or if the immediate drive after the takeaway results in a score.  So if a team intercepts the ball whether they start that drive on their own 2 yard line or the opponent 2 yard line, if they get points on that current drive I would deem it "points off TO's."

    I do see what you are saying, whats the difference between a interception with 80 yards left to score, or a punt where the defense is in the same situation anyway...hmmm, interesting...

    I'm trying to figure out if Turnovers, or Penalties and all those extracurriculars will add any value to the system, or just waste my time...Thanks for you input...


     
    Stake24
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    Posted: Dec. 6, 2008 - 3:28 AM ET #6

    Quote Originally Posted by deadgoneblitz26:

    Hahah that was hilarious about Favre hahah...Um I consider true "points off TO's" to be any turnover that results in points, whether it be a return on that play, or if the immediate drive after the takeaway results in a score.  So if a team intercepts the ball whether they start that drive on their own 2 yard line or the opponent 2 yard line, if they get points on that current drive I would deem it "points off TO's."

    I do see what you are saying, whats the difference between a interception with 80 yards left to score, or a punt where the defense is in the same situation anyway...hmmm, interesting...

    I'm trying to figure out if Turnovers, or Penalties and all those extracurriculars will add any value to the system, or just waste my time...Thanks for you input...




    Just eliminate TO's with < 51yds left to go. Or wherever it works the best     46..47..48..49..50..49..48..47..46
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    Quote Originally Posted by deadgoneblitz26:

    Hahah that was hilarious about Favre hahah...Um I consider true "points off TO's" to be any turnover that results in points, whether it be a return on that play, or if the immediate drive after the takeaway results in a score.  So if a team intercepts the ball whether they start that drive on their own 2 yard line or the opponent 2 yard line, if they get points on that current drive I would deem it "points off TO's."

    I do see what you are saying, whats the difference between a interception with 80 yards left to score, or a punt where the defense is in the same situation anyway...hmmm, interesting...

    I'm trying to figure out if Turnovers, or Penalties and all those extracurriculars will add any value to the system, or just waste my time...Thanks for you input...




    Just eliminate TO's with < 51yds left to go. Or wherever it works the best     46..47..48..49..50..49..48..47..46
     
    kenyonlv
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    Posted: Dec. 6, 2008 - 3:49 AM ET #7

    I wasn't joking about Favre .. he's hoping for a interference call or who cares if its an INT, its as good as a punt.  Well kinda joking, but he does hold the record.  What I meant was you have to "define" what points off TO's is and I see you have done that.  Now who has the same definition?  I see it as some TO's hurt scoring and some hurt the defense.  I guess points off TO's leads to the same point differential ie Team A scores or Team B doesn't.  TO's between the 30's hurt less ...  I do think you should include TO's in a system, and penalties wouldn't hurt, but so far I have not included penalties.
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    I wasn't joking about Favre .. he's hoping for a interference call or who cares if its an INT, its as good as a punt.  Well kinda joking, but he does hold the record.  What I meant was you have to "define" what points off TO's is and I see you have done that.  Now who has the same definition?  I see it as some TO's hurt scoring and some hurt the defense.  I guess points off TO's leads to the same point differential ie Team A scores or Team B doesn't.  TO's between the 30's hurt less ...  I do think you should include TO's in a system, and penalties wouldn't hurt, but so far I have not included penalties.
     
    deadgoneblitz26
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    Posted: Dec. 6, 2008 - 11:10 AM ET #8

    I'll be using this weekend to see how my system reacts to the TO factor in several different cases...I really appreciate the feedback...Thanks
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    I'll be using this weekend to see how my system reacts to the TO factor in several different cases...I really appreciate the feedback...Thanks
     
    deadgoneblitz26
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    Posted: Dec. 6, 2008 - 3:42 PM ET #9

    I recently read somewhere that Score predictions based on yards per play formulas are divided by 15.  Is that because NFL quarters are 15 minutes long?
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    I recently read somewhere that Score predictions based on yards per play formulas are divided by 15.  Is that because NFL quarters are 15 minutes long?
     
    kenyonlv
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    Posted: Dec. 6, 2008 - 3:50 PM ET #10

    Could be but I doubt it, When I put in factors I solve for the best  fit.  Who knows what the final number may end up at, but you do need a value to start at. 
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    Could be but I doubt it, When I put in factors I solve for the best  fit.  Who knows what the final number may end up at, but you do need a value to start at. 
     
     
    Wizerguy
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    Posted: Dec. 10, 2008 - 7:53 PM ET #11

    Scrolling through the play -by-play is the best way.You dont miss a trick
     
    You get PR and KOR for TD's which should be taken off the PA (points against) /defense, since they were not on the field at the time of that play. Also, when a team turns the ball over and the opponent scores off that miscue.You must take that score off the teams PF (points for)/offense) that scored off the TO. 
    - The storms will come, the storms will pass -
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    Scrolling through the play -by-play is the best way.You dont miss a trick
     
    You get PR and KOR for TD's which should be taken off the PA (points against) /defense, since they were not on the field at the time of that play. Also, when a team turns the ball over and the opponent scores off that miscue.You must take that score off the teams PF (points for)/offense) that scored off the TO. 
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