Posted:
#1
I'm moving my ump plays to the "System" section. My system is simple, I'm basically tracking umps and playing his Home/Visitor and Over/Under trends. I'm using the following parameters:
-The trend percentage must be 80% or higher.
-There must be results for 8 games to be included as a play.
-If the trend % is not 80%, but the last 10 games fall in that range, it may be included.
I will post my plays and also the plays that were considered but didn't make the % cut off. The unit bet is 100.
My record YTD is 11-8-1, but the bankroll is at -5, due to losing a couple plays with a lot of juice. These plays were posted in the "Baseball Picks" section here at covers. Yesterday's plays went 3-0 and 11-4 with all all plays considered.
I have found it is better to try and bet the overnight line rather than wait until the day of the game. The line's usually move against me if I wait until morning. I'm on Pacific Time.
Umpire picks for June 5 are:
Reds -130, Knight 7-1 to Home
Rays +125, Joyce 9-3 to Visitor, 8-2 last 10
Astros/Padres Over 7 +105, Holbrook 9-1 to the Over
Other plays to consider:
Brewers/Marlins O8, Meals 8-4 to the Over
Tigers/CWS U8.5, Reynolds 8-4 to the Under
Cubs/Cards O8, Barrett 8-3 to the over, but 6-3-1 depending on where the line fell the last 10. I'll pass on it.
LAA +120, Welke 8-3 to Home
D-Backs -180 Drake 8-3 to Home
Padres -145, Holbrook 8-4 to home but 8-2 last 10. At this price, I'll pass.
Good luck!
