I play all the system plays and most of the near plays(unless I can't get the points)...and a few times I have bought back the points...It has been really good and I am appreciative that the Prof. shared this with us all...an unfortunate thing has been that the books have adjusted some...lines don't move as much...on my book you can't even buy points on these games. Still, the system is productive. So with all due respect I offer a different line of thinking on the ULM/Denver game tonight.
This terrific system finds its success in the psychological frailty of the human mind. The problem with the system is that it fails to address times when its psychological advantage is flipped to the favorite. In this game there is a flip.
Denver is currently tied for the lead in the Sunbelt Conference West Division. Even with a below .500 winning per. this team has legitimate sights set on an NCAA automatic bid. To do this, Denver has to win its Sunbelt games, paticularly at home where they seem to play much better. In fact they are perhaps the best team, when playing at home, in the Sunbelt.
A look back at the game in Jan. played in Monroe, where Denver acheived a rare road win by 9 pts tells a compelling story as to how this game SHOULD turn out. Denver's FG% was right at 50%, Free Throws 75%(very good at line), 3 pt. % was 36%(and thats a real big part of who they are as 46 percent of shots are from outside the 3pt. line). EVERY STAT except 3 pt. fg % was in line(to's/rbds./etc.) with how they usually play at HOME. 3 pt. fg% at home is 46%.
Monroe FG% was 43(it is avg. of 40 on road) 3 pt.% was 44(it is 15% on road) Free throw % was 75%(it is 61% on the road)..Rebounds and TO's seem to be abt. the same home/away.
Statistically Denver starts fast...ULM starts slow...thats the normal pattern for each...Denver basically performed as they would at HOME(and that is NOT normal) in Monroe. ULM performed as they would at HOME(perhaps a little better actually).
So this is what I'm saying...Denver put up HOME stats on the road because the opponent is worse than the average team they play. ULM played like they play. So what happens when a team seeking a good seeding in the Conference Tournament that plays extremely well at home because the team they are playing is below the average competition? And what happens when Monroe(who's numbers pale on the road to what they did at home) plays a team that is above the average team that they play?
AN ASS WHIPPING...but hold on...I said Denver starts fast...ends slow/Monroe starts slow and gets better. The back door will give a chance to a system play in the 2nd half...The from door is slammed shut though..,.Play the system...I am...because I'm gonna see it through which requires great discipline...but I'm going two units on Denver in a 1st half play at 7.5 or below....system play WILL NOT look good at halftime.
I'm just very imaginative at times...Thanks for setting me straight.
Hot Forum Topics
