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Over Under System when Spread 1/3 of Totals

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Posted: #1
I know this has worked well this year for me in College Football.  went 10-2 this past week. 

Can this system be applied?

If so, tonight's game  Cincy @ Pitt would be a play

Pitt -12   O/U = 34.5

Thinking about pulling the trigger
 
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Posted: #2
what is the system?

 
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Posted: #3
...wudda won the parlay with Fav & Over...
...lost the Dawg & Under...
 
....+1.2 Units
 
have you back tested it in the NFL?
 
any system like that with the NBA we can come up with...
 
 
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Posted: #4
....9 games in NCAAFB today fall into this category...
 
anyone playing them?
 
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Posted: #5
...I guess not...
 
the first 12ET parlay bets today would be...
 
Ohio State -21 & Over 45
Mich State +21 & Under 45
 
....let's see...
 
...another... Rutgers -19 Over 44
                  Army +19  Under 44......
 
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Posted: #6
What book are you betting these at?
 
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Posted: #7
I played all 9 games yesterday.  Went 7-2 yesterday, 10-2 last weekend.  This system was posted in the Systems and Strategies section.

I couldn't find the original post

I have a bookie.
 
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Posted: #8
I have not tested for NFL or checked on stats.  Very rarely do you see the situation come up in the NFL. 

I started using this system in Week 5 or 6 of the NCAA Football season. 

54-24-2 YTD.  Very profitble for me. 

The week before I started it, this system went 12-1 believe in College

The books caught on and won't take the bets anymore from what I hear.  they took them last year
 
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Posted: #9
great job.....btw...
 
.....well out of the games that have fallen into this betting category .....which side of the parlay was the "winning" side?  Maybe the FAV & OVER is a better bet and won more frequently than the DAWG & UNDER when the spread is 1/3 of the total....  Can you calculate that win/loss %?
 
 
 
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Posted: #10
I looked at this past Saturday for the games that I figured fit into your "system"...
 
9 games fit the "system"
 
Fav & Overs won 5
Dawgs & Unders won 2
both lost......2
 
if you bet $100 on all teams like your system described...
 
#1.....for each play if you lost both games -$220
if you won one parlay the you win $150
( $260- $110= $150)
...so you would have gone 7-2 and netted $610
($150 X 7= $1050-$440= $610)
 
But now if the Bookie will not take the bet...then maybe if the past weeks are in the same win/loss % as last Saturday then that would yield a 55% win rate if you always bet the Fav & Over (5wins and 4 losses) but wudda still won... $310
($150 X 5= $750-$440= $310)
 
...but did the FAV & OVER always win more in the past weeks than the DAWG & UNDER???
 
 
....if that trend is still a winner then we could still win  despite the bookie not letting us bet both teams in the same game...
 
 
 
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Posted: #11
hey whitakp,

take advantage of these while you can! not very many books will take  these plays. (correlated parlays)

I use a local too, but he has smartened up, and I have yet to find an online book that will take this action. You're lucky man.
 
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Posted: #12
tbRays...but if his past weeks show that the "FAV & OVER" bet wins at a positive rate  compared to the "DAWG & UNDER" with the parlay betting....
 
....it will still be  
 
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Posted: #13
doesn't matter most books still won't let you make these bets
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by tbRays:

doesn't matter most books still won't let you make these bets

 

Exactly, and if you find one Id keep it quiet. I know of one online book that will take it but to be honest I dont even wana say cuz then everyone will bombard it

 
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Posted: #15
hey whit give me your bokies number. i have some savings i want to cash out and invest.


 
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Posted: #16
I back tested it over the last month in NCAAFB...
 
BAD...BAD....BAD...
 
If you always parlayed $100 bet on the:
            FAV & OVER= $1590 loss
 
           DAWG & UNDER= $880 loss
 
no winner here....
 
 
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by gasman33:

I back tested it over the last month in NCAAFB...
 
BAD...BAD....BAD...
 
If you always parlayed $100 bet on the:
            FAV & OVER= $1590 loss
 
           DAWG & UNDER= $880 loss
 
no winner here....
 
 

 

You must be calculating somthing wrong cuz theres no way its been a loser this year, NO WAY. So go back and do it again

 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by tbRays:

hey whit give me your bokies number. i have some savings i want to cash out and invest.


 

exactly, too bad is an online where u gotta send first.  wish I had like 20K to send and just unload next year

 
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Posted: #19
...hey chance...I back tested the last month stats for any winning trend...FAV &OVER vs DAWG & UNDER... if you could only bet one parlay with your bookie...get it?
 
No Bookie will take both parlays in the same game if they know that they will lose.  So I was trying to evaluate a win trend ...there was none...
 
I guess that if you had a bud that you could work with you both could make the Parlay bets one taking FAV & OVER and the other taking Dawgs & unders and you split the winnings equally every week...
 
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Posted: #20
It is only profitable if you bet both sides.
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by gasman33:

...hey chance...I back tested the last month stats for any winning trend...FAV &OVER vs DAWG & UNDER... if you could only bet one parlay with your bookie...get it?
 
No Bookie will take both parlays in the same game if they know that they will lose.  So I was trying to evaluate a win trend ...there was none...
 
I guess that if you had a bud that you could work with you both could make the Parlay bets one taking FAV & OVER and the other taking Dawgs & unders and you split the winnings equally every week...

 

my bad dude, sorry. I was like "what the fuck, this guy is talking about how great it is and now he's sayin its a loser!!! wtf!!!"

 

My apologies brother,GL

 
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Posted: #22
...no problem...
 
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Posted: #23
OK...if you could bet both sides of the parlay....
 
I back tracked the last 4 weeks NCAAFB games...
 
Nov 1...3-8....-$430
Nov 8...7-8....+$280
Nov 15..6-8...+$20
Nov 22...5-4...+310
 
...grand total of + $180 for the month...whupeeee!!!
 
 
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by tbRays:

hey whit give me your bokies number. i have some savings i want to cash out and invest.


 

go to my space and drop me an email, I'll tell you. I just dont wanna plaster it on the board

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