ONE thing Vegas cannot handicap and no bookie can ever read into !

EMOTION HUMAN psychological  reaction

 

especially in PROS  NBA NFL and MLB 

 

YOU see it every time a that huge favorite is looking ahaed  to bigger game 

 

recall  this the Blazers were a HUGE chalk - 15 vs the horrible  wolves  before the lakers came in  next night 

 

BOY did they lay a stinker ! won by a point  

 

Lakers come in after win at home  vs far better opponent  and favored by 2 points  and it was known one place Lakers cannot win  is in portland 

 

Blazers respoded  with a wire to wire smack down won by 21 points !

 

so of course next games both teams flipped floped blazers wer favored  got smoked  Lakers were dogged and spanked the fuck out of that other team !

NFL just recently The cards didnt even show UP at chagers got hammered 41 -10 

 

Come home to the Champs  and decide to use an undrafted rookie QB  and alid a smack down on that  poor saints team

 

so of course   Crds go on bye week then up to seattatle  and collapsed  as a DOG   got smoked 22-10 

Falcons  before game at saints ok it was cards after a loss at steelers no match  won  41 - 7  +4 @ saints won by 3 

 

come home to 49ers - 7 points and alid an egg  almost lot the game won by 2 points late in 4th qtr  16 - 14

PANTHERS + 14 at rival saints  really laid it all out lost by 2 points  14 -16  

 

come home favored to bears by 3 got smoked 6 - 23  ths week we have stinker panthers who rooled over at rams  are home now as a td DOG vs saints  who laid it all out to Beat steelers 

 

this is recreation of what cards did i feel laid down at chargers come home to saints and all of a sudden looked like THE Champs

Panthers hung tough with rams the 1st half  but wound up losing 20 -10   as a 3 .5 dog   so one more score  they would have covered  but they didnt want to do that  they decided to save that TD for home this week  !

EVERY pro team will do this in every pro sport  Beat a DIV raival 3 st in MLB   still home vs a NON div team  and wind up losing the series or get swept them selves !

NBA   YOU see teams favored in wrong spots  at HOME  after playing 4 games in 4 nights  and B 2 B while traveling through 3 time zones  in comes a  team rested one night off a bad loss as a favorite  KABBOM  that home chalk loses the game especially the older teams !

GET this straight folks YOU must reember these are human beings and when they are fucked up with sex scandals  and police DUI  got caught soliciting a Hooker  arraested  the night before a BIG game  boy is that player going to NOT be IN game all he will be thinking is what will i say to MY wife and family  ?

Remeber thsi reamrk before Cowboys played TEXANS  at Houston  !

 

QUOTE  in Haed Lines  IN dalls news WE AIN't GOING to BE the 1st Team TO lose  to That Team "   ENd quote  Cowboys - 8  @ houston guess what happend

 

They were the 1st Team to lose to that NEW team  10 - 19  !

SOMETIMES  actions speak louder than words 

 

THE night Before Packers played  in Superbowl  they paid private citizens to shovel off the snow  to prepare for THIER post superbowl party   !

- 11 Points Vs Broncos  byieeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

49ers  before playing Giants  years ago 

 

decided to ship thier equipment ahed to superbowl site before playing  G iants  !

 

BTW wasnt going to happen because NO NFL team ever has won 3 st superbowls  ! NOR has any College team won 3 st  Championships !

THEY get there the College teams do BUT wind up losing the game !

Funny thing is they are favored  in those games !

SO folks once YOU can read players minds put yourself in thier shoes in the room while looking at paper seeing that YOUR a 14 point favorite   and knowing that YOUR Next game is against YOUR biggest DIV raival  !

 

 Good stuff,dawnie...enjoy reading your post.

So.. Portland has a tough game in LA on Sunday.. and they had what should have been an easy game on paper, tonight at home vs. Toronto. Portland could have easily overlooked the tired Raptors who were continuing their West Coast trip.

But.. they didn't. They knocked the stuffing out of them which is exactly what was expected.

Altho you make good points, and that kind of stuff CAN happen.. it doesn't always. You have to still break down every game individually and judge it for what it is, on that particular day.

That is why capping is so damn difficult. You will never be able to fully cap the human emotion element. That is why Computer Programs are always destined to fail. They'll ride good for awhile, but in the end, they're no better than a human pulling the strings.

Cheers 

AGAIN tonite it apllies rember the week broncos lost teammate to sucide or whatever  they were in depressed state  attending funeral  and all before playing  sunday and lost  then it continued with injuries and moe when raiders came in and gave a total bashing 59-14 

ok then at london vs SF  way better improvemnt got helthy again dawkins was back and played a good game only lost by a td

 

SF got there way ahaed of Denver and was better prepared

thats only reason sf won  at london

THEN OOO BOY DID Denver  perk up at HOME vs rival  KC

so 

 

Denver is feeling great tonite  and looking had chagers last two games  really struggled

and got more inuries before bye week

denver last game  put them at PLUS 31 pints ATS  really won by 30 points  from a  negative 6  ats spread performance

which is ok it took them  4 games of negative performances to see a plus

Chargers  won last two games 

had thre negatives  -14  -12 - 6 thenbroke lose to +4.5 but vs Titans really struggled  as 3 point chalk to win by 6 points

 

this is aiming for a loss ats and sure negative reult will follow

truly belive in my GUT that Denver wins tonite s/U  winner +365

but also taking points just in case

game should fly overs but not sure if they play that way

i'm seeing Denver scoring 35  SD about 30

or  Denver 28  SD  24

oh please.. do you work for a book or something, tryin to get people to throw their money away on Denver.

I've seen stranger things happen, and the NFL has been pretty unpredictable for most handicappers this season.. but there's no way San Diego loses this game.

The AFC West Crown will still go through San Diego.

I'll be happy to eat my crow if they don't.

I hate predicting final scores.. but let's go SD 34 Den 21

Cheers 

WOW! I was wondering who was pumping money in on Denver. The line plummeted over the last week. Total sucker bet. Denver is a one trick pony who got exposed last night.

kreatture had it right and came pretty close to predicting the final score....35-14. The Chargers called the dogs off after the 3rd quarter and still won by 3 touchdowns. Had Norv Turner let the offense go San Diego would have easily scored over 50 points last night.

So much for that gut feeling you banked on.

If you can "read into it", so can a bookie.

NO THEY CANNOT VEGAS DOSENT READ INTO IT and your local bookies only see when all thier players are on the same side

THEY DO NOT Handicap games or wager on them unless THEY are idiots !

NO odds maker or lines maker uses HUMAN EMOTION into a game

 

HOW many times have YOU seen teams favored in the TRAP games that LOST the Game outright IN NFL this year  alaone !

WHY DO YOU THINK Patriots LOST s/u as a Favorite on the Road to the Browns !

 

What caused that LETDOWN ?

VERY simple look who patriots beat week before  Randy Moss came home with the Vikings and they laid it all out TO stop HIM and limit HIM from making any big catches !

 

SO NOW patriiots BIG EMOTIONAL WIN over Vkings

and WERE Emotionally flat at Browns and GOT plastered !

NOW If BOOKIES read into IT they would have Made the BRowns a favorite and that would have woke up the Patriots real fast !

 

Cleveland tonight before Lebron comes to town thursday!!!

If everyone knew a certain team was going to win due to this 'emotional factor', the books would also know and set the odds accordingly. 

IF THEY KNEW !

BUT they DONT Know when a team is  coming in OFF an emotional win  !

OR a Bad loss Rams +6 at SF  LOST in OT 

HOME +3 vs falcons  couldnt respond off heart breaker  falcons ran em down

34 - 17

KC + 2 @ raiders  LOST in OT at Denver - 1  Couldnt Respond 

LOST 29 - 49 

So What About The Texans/Eagles Game Tonight?

If they don't know, how do you know?

You somehow think you're way more informed and intelligent than the bookmakers??

YES DJ destroyer i'm female first off i have feelings and emotions and am very keen on reading into others emotions

 

it's MY JOB also that has my instincts sharp as hell !

LETS review when any team comes in off a huge emotional win or EMOTIONALLY Heart breaking losses !

 

NOT in order :

 

1.) Raiders early season finally after 13 st loses  Beat thier hated rival Chargers  next week up at horrible 49ers & they couldnt do shit got smoked 17 - 9

2) week 1 Texans upended the colts huge win for them  GO to wash - 3 1/2  and boy were they flat  was down by 3 td's won by 3 points 

 

3.) Patriots laid it all out to shut down Randy moss when he came home and whipped the Vkings GO To browns  laying small spread over a team that was off a bye week and isnt all that bad  of a sub 500 team BOY were they EMOTIONALLY flat  They lost the game S/U 34 - 17

4.) NY JETS  after record setting NFL history as a Road team winning two st games in OT  came home laying a FULL TD to a jack off defense of worst kind in texans and almost lost the game they got out scored in 2nd half by texans and squeaked a 3 point win !

5.) EAGLES  after two wins over DIV rivals  were on a emotional HIGH  GO To bears favored  which baffled the shit out of ME  and got smeared from wire to wire lost the game out right !

6.) RAMS  + 6 at SF had an EMOTIONAL  heartbreaking  LOSS  in OT  Come home as a 3 pt DOG  to The Falcons LOST 34 - 17

7.) Saints had  a HUGE blowout win at Tampa 34 - 3  thier div rival GO To browns flat as hell as a two td favorite LOST THE GAME 17 - 30

8.) COLTS as a 3 1/2 DOG at thier biggest  CONF Rivals house Patriots tried to win game chasing down two td's  LOST the game on last second INT

came home battered EMOTIONALLY heart broken  ; bruised; favored by 3.5 pts to the Chargers worst performance ever at Home the least points ever scored by Colts at home LOST the GAME out right 36 - 14

THATs 8-0  s/u and ATS   100%    theres more than these games !

Right, if you can predict this stuff BEFORE the games... then it can be profitable.

But like I said, the bookies definitely take into account everything you do (emotional factors) and more (trends, stats, situational matchups, algorithms, etc.). If something is a good indicator of success in the sports betting world, the bookkeepers know about it!

So What Do You Got For Sundays Games?  Which Ones To Look For?

Yeah I'm tired of hearing past examples.. you could make a case for just about every loss every week for every team, one way or another, if you knew how to spin a tale..

I commended your write-up in the other thread for the "rules" to live by.. time to quit spouting lines and give some up-to-the-minute examples.. I'm hitting just under 60% ATS this Season and just under 80% SU.  I know what my edges are this Sunday, Week 13, what are yours..??

jaybosstein THE teams off of EMOTINAL heartbreaking losses and those who won EMOTINAL  games like maybe the saints are the ones to FADE 

 

top of list loser IS Panthers  worst thing ever for any NFL team is when they are a large dog  and lose the game by 1 point

Really lose the game not because of a stupid rule or call or players penalty  as in when Dolphins lost by 1 point to steelers

Steelers didnt get touch down but fumble was end of play Miami could not recover the Fumble it was called a TD

whistle was blown

Panthers get destroyed traveling further west to Seattle even tho Seattle isnt covering spreads right now i'd stay light because the fucks are looking ahead to  DIV game with SF 

 

BUT once they SF lost  up at GB they will not stop to be 500 at 6-6  funny isnt it  SF plays eraly at 1 pm Seattle starts at 4 :15

Thats why Bears really laid it out to Eagles last week they saw packers lose  at falcons already

EVEN tho the BILLS would fall into fade material this week  i have them covering in MINNY

sure Minny was ealated to WIN at wash  hell any team can beat that pathetic defense and slow old men it was the senior citizn bowl last week

 

BILLS might win this game s/u  take the 6 points or 7 or even less NO way Minny covers this fat spread

EVEN tho KC wants revenge  vs Denver 8 fucking points is riduculous

 

BECause KC decided to whip up on two pathetic teams in a row scoring over 85 points in two st games winning by more than two or 3 TD's in both games !

RERUN:  KC whipped up two huge wins in a ROW they hammered jags 42 - 24  NEXT game  Bills come in from an OT loss  KC overvalued  at - 8 points whewwwwwwwwwwww waht a stinker Chiefs laid  sqeaked a 3 point win 

DENVER can win this game i know they have no RUN game and will probably air it out  BUT 8 points is too hefty a number for KC to handle in this spot

I think or fully belive Tampa Bay wins this week at home as a 3 point DOG  they were pissed at NO call by refs that could have gotten them to win at balty player was screaming hopping mad they held ravens offense to 17 points  and really took a bite out of thier  yards

 

ONE pisssed off home puppy here they almost took it at falcons lost by 6  as a 10 point puppy 

wow will saints be watching this game while playing at Bengals

this game is scary because it's first cold game out doors for saints no other reason and they might be a little flat 1st half

They really should have no trouble covering the TD at Cincy because thier defense  this year took 4 steps backwards !

all you have to do is what the Bills did  keep thier defense on the field with long sustained drives and 2nd half Bengals fold up and close shop

 

Saints win it s/u only question is by how much IF falcons are getting smacked down by half time like losing by 17  sainst will really kick in gear to take spot in DIV

Cowboys  fade @ Colts  they will not cover the spread 

 

it has happened to every team losing to saints and covering spread  they go POOF  in next weeks game

MINNESOATA a 5 point dog week 1 LOST by 5 points @ saints 10 days later HOME  favored by 5.5 to Miami  LOST the game

10 - 14 

Cowboys are in same exact situation YOU know their herats were busted  the way they lost the Game to Saints like OMG having the ball ripped out of YOUR hands at the 11 yrd line YOU dope reciver

Nail the win with a TD  NO way saints  Could win the win the game

down by 11 points YEAH i know indy isnt covering spreads latley BUT this Cowboys team just isnt feeling too good right now i can the trail of blood from Dallas over to INDY  that was thier SUPERBOWL game and it's just like all other superbowl Losers !

OK next post  !

 

OK i missed few words  in  1st sentences  TEAMS off of EMOTIONAL wins like beating the DEFENDING Champs or thier DIV rival that has owned them forever wind up losiing next Game 100% as long as opponent is 90% healthy !

EMOTIONS run HIGH in NFL higher than any other sport every week low to high !

then down again or up this year it's unreal every team is on an elevator ride every week or every two weeks

 

win two games s/u huge KABOOM 3rd game lose s/u

go back look at last 3 games of each opponent in this weeks games look at thier schedules

oo heres another stinker coming  Miami only a 4 point fav at HOME vs the BROWNS !

 

THEY won by 16 as a 2 point dog in Oakland who is just about a lil bit better than browns are

YEAH ok Raiders had QB  in and HE got konced out with that same shoulder injury and PHINS had top QB back Henne

BUT we all know just one hit away and that patchwork O line also is looking like an accident waiting to happen Centers and guards and tackles all moved araound

LOOK at PHINS schedule are they LOOKING ahaed ?

 

You  BETCHA they are looking past this browns team to DIV rival jets anay the 4 point spread or even 3 .5  GIVES edge to the Browns

 

Miami also is horrble doing flip flops afater a s/u dog win then favored at home they are 1-7  and 1-7  OFF any S/U DOG win vs less than .500  opponents also in DECMBER  they are 1-9 at HOME off a S/U dog win !

THE coach records also 

OMG this is getting ugly  1-10  HOME vs NON div opponents 1-7  as favs vs NON div foes  2-8 Home OFF a NON div game !

Miami hsitory vs Browns  0-3 ATS 1-2  S/U  Last 3 games faced

ONE 100% trend of Miami all through thier years they are  100%  REVENGE winners from playoff losses  even if after 2 years if they meet up any where at thier opponets home or at home they will win the game s/u and ATS  also miami bitches are the AFC west teams all 4 of them ATS 

and THE Bengals they won also not S/U  only twice cincy beat them BUT they will cover as a DOG or fav in Cincy or at home !

 

except for year they went 1- 15 final game of year Miami didnt play

at home o excuse me i'm wrong they tried Cincy put up a 38 spot on them to win by 13

OTHER games i'm on the fence about strictly no plays are steelers at Ravens i really want steelers to pull heads out of asses and smoke Ravens or just beat them but BIG bens foot is an issue

also the refs are targeting steelers every game the slightest wisp of any hit they dont like 4 ffags come flying in especially with big bens sex scandal they really hate him

HE gets abused in every game late hits hands to head etc..  they DON't Call the penalties  COMON NFL lets have some consistency with your fucking newrules protect all the players NOT just your nancy pants  diva's prima donna's Brady & mannings & Brett  yeah isnt it funny the other qb's they really have to get whacked to get a flag !

i will have write ups later tonite in the picks forum for NFL goota go

to work  seeeeeee ya's