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NHL Under Chase System

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Posted: #76

System is 34-0                 +107.30

Teams we are chasing

NJ [A] [A], Philly [C], Detroit [A], Toronto [B] [C], Minny [A], Edmonton [A], Rangers [A], Calgary [A]

Games tonight

SJ / NJ [A] [A]  Under 5 +105            10 to win 10.50

Columbus / Detriot [A] Under 5.5 -114  5 to win 4.40

 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by k-murder:

I think I figured out why 2008 was a bad year for this strategy - because of the differences between the average goals scored per game and the average over/under line were much bigger than in other years. Historic:

Yr      Avg O/U    Avg Gs
2006: 5.84           5.89
2007: 5.48           5.56
2008: 5.55           5.82
2009: 5.54           5.68
2010: 5.44           5.58
2011: 5.45           5.41

I think even though 52%+ of games go under during the past few years defies gambling logic where it should average 50% over time as in other sports, it 52% should continue because vegas has tried to adjust over/unders lower, but it doesnt seem to work.


Very nice work with the stats!
 
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Posted: #78
So far this year UNDERS are hitting at 57.14%
 
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Posted: #79
SJ/NJ and DET/CLB didn't hit

MINUS 15 units

BOO
 
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Posted: #80
SJ/NJ and DET/CLB didn't hit

MINUS 15 units

BOO
 
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Posted: #81
It's a chase system.  Get used to absorbing losses.  Focus on money management and you will also go 8-0.
 
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Posted: #82
Thnx.... I was posting what he and the system lost... I lost 3. 2 on NJ and 1 on Det

Doesn't help when DET hits 4 PPGs
 
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Posted: #83

System is 34-0                 +92.30

Teams we are chasing

NJ [A] [B] [B], Philly [C], Detroit [B], Toronto [B] [C], Minny [A], Edmonton [A], Rangers [A], Calgary [A], SJ [A], Carolina [A], St.Louis [A]

Games tonight

Nashville / Calgary [A] Under 5.5  -143 5 to win 3.50

Minny [A] / Vancouver Under 5.5  -141 5 to win 3.55

Carolina [A] / Winnipeg Under 5.5 -105 5 to win 4.75

Detroit [B] / Washington Under 5.5 -110 10 to win 9.10

NJ [A] [B] [B] / Pittsburgh Under 5 -110 25 to win 22.75

SJ [A] / Boston               Under 5 +115 5 to win 5.75

St.Louis [A] / Philly [C]   Under 5.5 -105 25 to win 23.75

Toronto [B] [C] / Montreal Under 5.5 -143 30 to win 21

Rangers [A] / Edmonton [A] Under 5 +100 10 to win 10

 

 
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Posted: #84
Best of luck tonight Rob, I'm with you on them.

Let's clear some of those C and B bets out tonight 
 
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by robwalton:

Nashville / Calgary [A] Under 5.5  -143 5 to win 3.50

Minny [A] / Vancouver Under 5.5  -141 5 to win 3.55

Carolina [A] / Winnipeg Under 5.5 -105 5 to win 4.75

Detroit [B] / Washington Under 5.5 -110 10 to win 9.10

NJ [A] [B] [B] / Pittsburgh Under 5 -110 25 to win 22.75

SJ [A] / Boston               Under 5 +115 5 to win 5.75

St.Louis [A] / Philly [C]   Under 5.5 -105 25 to win 23.75

Toronto [B] [C] / Montreal Under 5.5 -143 30 to win 21

Rangers [A] / Edmonton [A] Under 5 +100 10 to win 10

 

Big night tonight -

 
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Posted: #86
bad bad night only thing that helps is we got a push in nj / pitsburgh game
 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by robwalton:

System is 34-0                 +92.30

Teams we are chasing

NJ [A] [B] [B], Philly [C], Detroit [B], Toronto [B] [C], Minny [A], Edmonton [A], Rangers [A], Calgary [A], SJ [A], Carolina [A], St.Louis [A]

Games tonight

Nashville / Calgary [A] Under 5.5  -143 5 to win 3.50

Minny [A] / Vancouver Under 5.5  -141 5 to win 3.55

Carolina [A] / Winnipeg Under 5.5 -105 5 to win 4.75

Detroit [B] / Washington Under 5.5 -110 10 to win 9.10

NJ [A] [B] [B] / Pittsburgh Under 5 -110 25 to win 22.75

SJ [A] / Boston               Under 5 +115 5 to win 5.75

St.Louis [A] / Philly [C]   Under 5.5 -105 25 to win 23.75

Toronto [B] [C] / Montreal Under 5.5 -143 30 to win 21

Rangers [A] / Edmonton [A] Under 5 +100 10 to win 10

 

we still following DET (C); TOR (C)(D); STL (B); PHI(D); SJ(B); NJ (B)(C)(C); CAR (B)

NO GAMES TONIGHT NO WAY TO MAKE UP FOR YESTERDAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 
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Posted: #88
thats why its called a chase system glefkb
 
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Posted: #89

System is 38-0                 +34.35

Teams we are chasing

NJ [A] [B] [B], Philly [D], Detroit [C], Toronto [A] [C] [D], SJ [B], Carolina [B], St.Louis [B], Minny [A], Vancouver [A], Montreal [A], Colorado [A], Chicago [A]

Games tonight

 
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Posted: #90
Trying to be funny. I know its a chase.....my guy collects on Tuesday and I have to make some back before then. Didn't want to chance it on NFL even though I woulda shoulda coulda won on KC AND MINN. What's the plays today?
 
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Posted: #91

System is 38-0                 +34.35

Teams we are chasing

NJ [A] [B] [B], Philly [D], Detroit [C], Toronto [A] [C] [D], SJ [B], Carolina [B], St.Louis [B], Minny [A], Vancouver [A], Montreal [A], Colorado [A], Chicago [A]

Games tonight

Toronto [A] [C] [D] / Philly [D] Under 5.5 +110 105 to win 115.50

Florida / Montreal [A]  Under 5   +121               5 to win 6.05

 
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Posted: #92
Penthouse to outhouse..... Tor and philly deadly!

Fla/Mon WINNER. YTD -65ish
 
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Posted: #93
its a long season, philly plays montreal on wednesday in there E game, and the leafs play on thursday against the rangers, im not worried, we will get it back
 
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Posted: #94
good job at looking at the big picture Rob!  Keep on Grindin
 
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Posted: #95
Lesson learned, when Gus is in nets, I'm going to pass on the game and just wait for the next to continue chase. Hes been awful. Only true reason I believe Toronto is at E, last three Leaf system losses came from him in nets...

As for Philly, not sure what's happening here. Bryz hasn't been good this season.

Still confident we'll wrap up these series this week! Let's do this fellas!
 
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Posted: #96

RW,

Chasing strategies can be very good but also very dangerous when you chase for more than 3 games.  Any idea what kind of record previous seasons would have yielded playing these in just a 2 or 3 game chase?

GL!

 
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Posted: #97
Question: How are you choosing the teams to chase? I noticed a few of those you are chasing are near top of the PPG stats list. I thought one might have been focusing more on teams with lower PPG? Not knocking the system, looks great, but just curious that's all.
 
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Posted: #98
Quote Originally Posted by Trigg:

Question: How are you choosing the teams to chase? I noticed a few of those you are chasing are near top of the PPG stats list. I thought one might have been focusing more on teams with lower PPG? Not knocking the system, looks great, but just curious that's all.


A team is chosen for the system if they have a game that goes into OT/SO.
 
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Posted: #99
Im pretty much a rook here to these systems and the terminology...but i really cant figure out why the system is 38-0....i see the profit...but i dont understand why you say its 38-0

help a guy out!
 
 
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Posted: #100

System is 39-0                 -64.60

Teams we are chasing

NJ [A] [B] [B], Philly [E], Detroit [C], Toronto [B] [D] [E], SJ [B], Carolina [B], St.Louis [B], Minny [A], Vancouver [A], Colorado [A], Chicago [A]

Games tonight

Ottawa / Carolina [B]        Under 5.5   +100 10 to win 10

Detroit [C] / Columbus      Under 5.5   +102 20 to win 20.40

San Jose [B] / Nashville    Under 5      +103 10 to win 10.30

Anaheim / Chicago [A]      Under 5.5    -125 5 to win 4.00

Vancouver [A] / Edmonton Under 5.5     -141 5 to win 3.55

NJ [A] [B] [B] / LA             Under 5     -135 25 to win 18.50

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