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Hey everyone.
NHL season's on the docket, and if you're like me, you'd like to make some money from it. After spending the last few months backtesting some ideas, I think I've stumbled on a good way to make some bank.
This "system" is actually a combination of seven different systems. All of them are 4 game chases. I fucked up when testing several times (marked wins in the wrong system), so I won't include the results for each individual system. But the overall tally should be solid.
Without further adieu, here are the results for the last five years:
2016-17: +289.47 (469 - 2)
2015-16: +205.67u (476 - 5)
2014-15: +258.00u (535 - 5)
2013-14: +466.34u (557 - 2)
2011-12: +134.14u (433 - 6)
TOTAL: +1353.62u (2470 - 20)
CONCERNS
Now, these results look pretty solid. However, I have a couple of concerns about how well they will hold.
First, chasing takes a lot of balls. One loss could end up costing you as much as 150 units. Even if you win a lengthy series, you're gonna have a significant portion of your BR on the line by gm. 4. If you're working with a significant amount of cash, I wouldn't recommend this at all.
Second, around 30-35% of these wins are overlapping. Plays often qualify for multiple systems. Thus, one team going on a cold streak could cause 3-4 series losses and wipe out a year's worth of profits. This almost happened in 2011-12.
HOW WE'LL PLAY
In order to mitigate these risks, I believe the best way to play these systems is to play each game once, while using a less-risky loss-recovery strategy. Specifically, I use a Hybrid Labby, mixing losses across lines.
This strategy did me well in MLB this season, and I'll be applying it here throughout the course of the season. This method should result in us playing about 270 series.
Now, you might think that this change in strategy makes the back-tested results misleading. And you're kinda right. But for me, the purpose of the backtest was to verify the logic of each system in a sense. So personally, I'm okay with the difference. Whether you choose to tail this method is up to you.
HOW TO TAIL
Begin with a Bankroll of 200 units. I will list the plays and units to bet/ units to win here. And that's all. Unfortunately, I'm gonna be stingy with the system parameters. But as long you keep this thread updated, you shouldn't have any problems.
Plays should begin within the next two weeks. Stay tuned!
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