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NHL Power Rankings Play/Fade

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Posted: #1
Similar to what I did for MLB.  I found 6 websites that I could pull rankings from and weighted them as far as if they're daily updated, twice a week or weekly.  From this I ranked them, and we would play the top 4 or fade the bottom 4 teams that played.
Going through a few weeks of the season, it looks like that there is rarely a day where there is full slate of games. I figured I would only post the actual top/bottom 4 instead of the days.
I will also being the Last 5/Last 20 as MLB using the same formulas.
After Carolina has played its 5th game on Oct 19th, I will start Pwr and L5 rankings with L20 coming after all teams have played 20g.
 
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Posted: #2
I will every so often post systems that tend to be odds based and how they are doing:

Progs/Regres: As MLB, play team where L3g odds go down while team that they are going against, the odds go up.
Dogs: As MLB, play a dog where neither team has won 3 out of L3g or lost 3 out of L3g
Rev Line: As MLB, play team where the public is 45% or lower and the odds have gone down by 10 points.
Fade Public: New, play away dog that has the public at 40% or lower.
GSGA: NHL Betting System: Goal Scored And Allowed Systems, posted in another thread.  I'm using +1 goal as a difference for a play.
Fd Low 3:  New, fade the bottom 3 in points.  This is to be at -1.5 and a chase but I'm not counting it this way.


 
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

  
After Carolina has played its 5th game on Oct 19th, I will start Pwr and L5 rankings with L20 coming after all teams have played 20g.
 

Make that Oct 21st as San Jose won't play their first Away game until Oct 20th.
Also, I will reset to zero all system stats (W/L, $$$) in post #2 on that date.  Everything posted will have a start date from Oct 21st.

To further explain "Fd Low 3".  The website/forum where I picked this up faded the teams in bottom 3 of NHL point totals.  He would fade (play the opposing team at -1.5 RL) and chase for, I think, 4 games.  It did well.  I don't like to chase so I have it as a stand alone one shot to win outright.

During MLB, I tried a -1.5 chase where if a team won by 2 or more, you would chase to 4 games that they would repeat that.  It really didn't do that well. I am going to add it here under "Chase RL", the difference is that you don't chase, and you don't play at the RL. Play it as if a team wins by 2 or more, they will win outright the next game.
 
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Posted: #4
Test!!!!

Power Rank Play/RL
0 - 0
$0.00
0 - 0
$0.00
Power Rank Fade/RL (Play)
0 - 1
($1.49)
0 - 1
($1.00)
Last 5 Play/RL
0 - 0
$0.00
0 - 0
$0.00 Det
Last 5 Fade/RL (Play)
0 - 0
$0.00
0 - 0
$0.00
Last 20 Play/RL
0 - 0
$0.00
0 - 0
$0.00 Det
Last 20 Fade/RL (Play)
0 - 0
$0.00
0 - 0
$0.00
System ML W/L ML $$$ RL W/L RL $$$
Progs/Regres 4 - 4 -2.97 1 - 7 -5.45
Dogs 1 - 1 0.44 1 - 1 1.9
Rev Line 7 - 6 2.34 4 - 9 3.8
Fade Public 11 - 7 8.09 9 - 9 21.25
GSGA 5 - 4 0.22 1 - 8 -5.8
Fd Low 3 0 - 1 -1.49 0 - 1 -1
Chase RL 0 - 0 0 0 - 0 0

 
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Posted: #5
Real Thing:

Power Rank Play/RL
0 - 0 Was
$0.00 Pit
0 - 0 Tb
$0.00 Stl
Power Rank Fade/RL (Play)
0 - 0 Ari (Chi)
$0.00
0 - 0 Buf (Bos)
$0.00
Last 5 Play/RL
0 - 0 La
$0.00 Sj
0 - 0 Tor
$0.00
Last 5 Fade/RL (Play)
0 - 0 Edm (Phi)
$0.00 Buf (Bos)
0 - 0
$0.00 Ari (Chi)
System //    ML W/L   // //    ML $$$   // //    RL W/L   // //    RL $$$   //
Progs/Regres //    0 - 0   // $0.00 //    0 - 0   // $0.00 
Dogs //    0 - 0   // $0.00 //    0 - 0   // $0.00 
Rev Line //    0 - 0   // $0.00 //    0 - 0   // $0.00 
Fade Public //    0 - 0   // $0.00 //    0 - 0   // $0.00 
GSGA //    0 - 0   // $0.00 //    0 - 0   // $0.00 
Fd Low 3 //    0 - 0   // $0.00 //    0 - 0   // $0.00 
Chase RL //    0 - 0   // $0.00 //    0 - 0   // $0.00 

 
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Posted: #6
Power Rank Play/RL
1 - 3
($2.76)
1 - 3
($1.15)
Power Rank Fade/RL (Play)
1 - 1
($0.79) Van (Det)
1 - 1
$1.00
Last 5 Play/RL
1 - 2
($0.87)
1 - 2
$1.50
Last 5 Fade/RL (Play)
1 - 2
($0.39)
0 - 3
($3.00)
System //    ML W/L   // //    ML $$$   // //    RL W/L   // //    RL $$$   //
Progs/Regres //    0 - 1   // ($1.57) //    0 - 1   // ($1.00)
Dogs //    3 - 2   // $2.28 //    1 - 4   // ($0.75)
Rev Line //    2 - 2   // $0.50 //    1 - 3   // $0.00 
Fade Public //    3 - 2   // $1.94 //    3 - 2   // $7.75 
GSGA //    5 - 1   // $4.77 //    3 - 3   // $5.95 
Fd Low 3 //    2 - 4   // ($3.74) //    1 - 5   // ($3.00)
Chase RL //    2 - 1   // $1.61 //    1 - 2   // ($0.15)

 
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Posted: #7
I work at 330a EST USA on Sundays so if there is a Sunday 1pm game, possibly later, I won't have the numbers.
 
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Posted: #8
Interesting stuff - I will be following as I try to wrap my ahead around your system.

Thanks for sharing - and go the browns!

 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by rivermonsterz:

Interesting stuff - I will be following as I try to wrap my ahead around your system.

Thanks for sharing - and go the browns!

The Power Rank plays/fades are solely from 6 power rankings around the web that I can pull the rankings from.  I just multiply each ranking by a number based on how often the web site updates.  I add all 6 up and then divide by 6 to form an overall ranking.  Play top 4 actual (MLB would be the days top 4), and fade the bottom 4.
Last 5 is one I made to rank teams based on how they have been doing right now.  I just tried to type how I come up with the numbers I get, but I got confused myself in the response.
Neither are back tested.

Go Browns...PLEASE get at least one win this year!!!!
 
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Posted: #10
Power Rank Play/RL
1 - 3
($2.76)
1 - 3
($1.15) La
Power Rank Fade/RL (Play)
1 - 2
($2.22)
1 - 2
$0.00
Last 5 Play/RL
1 - 2 La
($0.87)
1 - 2
$1.50
Last 5 Fade/RL (Play)
1 - 2
($0.39)
0 - 3
($3.00) Nyr (Sj)
System //    ML W/L   // //    ML $$$   // //    RL W/L   // //    RL $$$   //
Progs/Regres //    0 - 1   // ($1.57) //    0 - 1   // ($1.00)
Dogs //    3 - 2   // $2.28 //    1 - 4   // ($0.75)
Rev Line //    2 - 2   // $0.50 //    1 - 3   // $0.00 
Fade Public //    4 - 2   // $3.23 //    4 - 2   // $11.00 
GSGA //    5 - 1   // $4.77 //    3 - 3   // $5.95 
Fd Low 3 //    2 - 4   // ($3.74) //    1 - 5   // ($3.00)
Chase RL //    2 - 1   // $1.61 //    1 - 2   // ($0.15)

 
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Posted: #11
Power Rank Play/RL
1 - 4 Tb
($3.76) Pit
1 - 4
($2.15) La
Power Rank Fade/RL (Play)
1 - 2 Ari (Nyi)
($2.22) Van (Min)
1 - 2 Buf (Det)
$0.00 Col (Dal)
Last 5 Play/RL
1 - 3 Van
($1.87)
1 - 3
$0.50 La
Last 5 Fade/RL (Play)
1 - 3
($1.52) Edm (Pit)
0 - 4 Ari (Nyi)
($4.00)
System //    ML W/L   // //    ML $$$   // //    RL W/L   // //    RL $$$   //
Progs/Regres //    0 - 1   // ($1.57) //    0 - 1   // ($1.00)
Dogs //    4 - 2   // $3.30 //    2 - 4   // $1.55 
Rev Line //    2 - 2   // $0.50 //    1 - 3   // $0.00 
Fade Public //    4 - 2   // $3.23 //    4 - 2   // $11.00 
GSGA //    6 - 1   // $5.77 //    3 - 4   // $4.95 
Fd Low 3 //    2 - 4   // ($3.74) //    1 - 5   // ($3.00)
Chase RL //    2 - 2   // $0.48 //    1 - 3   // ($1.15)

 
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Posted: #12
Power Rank Play/RL
3 - 4
($1.76)
2 - 5
($0.45) Stl
Power Rank Fade/RL (Play)
2 - 5
($5.07)
2 - 5 Buf (Clb)
($1.50)
Last 5 Play/RL
3 - 4
($0.57)
1 - 6
($2.50) Stl
Last 5 Fade/RL (Play)
2 - 5
($2.52)
1 - 6
($3.85)
System //    ML W/L   // //    ML $$$   // //    RL W/L   // //    RL $$$   //
Progs/Regres //    0 - 2   // ($3.31) //    0 - 2   // ($2.00)
Dogs //    9 - 3   // $8.84 //    4 - 8   // $2.95 
Rev Line //    2 - 3   // ($0.58) //    1 - 4   // ($1.00)
Fade Public //    7 - 5   // $4.56 //    5 - 7   // $8.70 
GSGA //    8 - 4   // $3.54 //    4 - 8   // $4.45 
Fd Low 3 //    4 - 5   // ($2.74) //    2 - 7   // ($3.50)
Chase RL //    3 - 4   // ($1.01) //    2 - 5   // ($0.45)

 
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Posted: #13
Power Rank Play/RL
4 - 4 Tb
($0.76) Pit
3 - 5 Was
$1.35
Power Rank Fade/RL (Play)
3 - 5 Ari (Nyr)
($4.07) Van (Was)
3 - 5
($0.45) Mon (La)
Last 5 Play/RL
4 - 4
$0.43 Sj
2 - 6 Win
($0.70) Tor
Last 5 Fade/RL (Play)
2 - 5
($2.52) Nyr (Ari)
1 - 6 Min (Nyi)
($3.85) Ari (Nyr)
System //    ML W/L   // //    ML $$$   // //    RL W/L   // //    RL $$$   //
Progs/Regres //    1 - 2   // ($2.31) //    1 - 2   // ($0.20)
Dogs //    9 - 5   // $6.84 //    4 - 10   // $0.95 
Rev Line //    2 - 3   // ($0.58) //    1 - 4   // ($1.00)
Fade Public //    7 - 6   // $3.56 //    5 - 8   // $7.70 
GSGA //    9 - 5   // $3.54 //    5 - 9   // $5.25 
Fd Low 3 //    4 - 5   // ($2.74) //    2 - 7   // ($3.50)
Chase RL //    3 - 4   // ($1.01) //    2 - 5   // ($0.45)

 
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Posted: #14
How do I read this as who to bet??
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by yanks1932:

How do I read this as who to bet??

On the plays, the team listed, on the fades, the team in the (parenthesis).


 
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Posted: #16
I don't post any of the others, just have the stats listed for information.  Some are odds based and could change into or out of the system during the day.  
GSGA (Goals Scored / Goals Against) is in another thread.
Fade Low 3...fade against the bottom 3 in total points.
Chase RL....if a teams wins by 2 or more, play next game to win ML
 
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Posted: #17
Power Rank Play/RL
6 - 5
($0.03)
3 - 8
($1.65) Stl
Power Rank Fade/RL (Play)
5 - 6
($3.23)
5 - 6
$2.55
Last 5 Play/RL
5 - 7
($2.19)
2 - 10
($4.70)
Last 5 Fade/RL (Play)
4 - 6
($1.52)
3 - 7
($0.95) Nas (Chi)
System //    ML W/L   // //    ML $$$   // //    RL W/L   // //    RL $$$   //
Progs/Regres //    1 - 2   // ($2.31) //    1 - 2   // ($0.20)
Dogs //    11 - 8   // $6.32 //    6 - 13   // $3.50 
Rev Line //    3 - 5   // ($1.43) //    2 - 6   // $0.50 
Fade Public //    8 - 10   // $0.93 //    6 - 12   // $6.95 
GSGA //    12 - 8   // $2.75 //    6 - 14   // $2.40 
Fd Low 3 //    6 - 6   // ($1.63) //    4 - 8   // ($0.50)
Chase RL //    3 - 5   // ($2.24) //    2 - 6   // ($1.45)

 
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Posted: #18
Power Rank Play/RL
7 - 5 Tb
$1.05 Pit
3 - 9 La
($2.65) Stl
Power Rank Fade/RL (Play)
5 - 6 Ari (Nj)
($3.23) Buf (Sj)
5 - 6 Mon (Nyr)
$2.55
Last 5 Play/RL
5 - 7 Stl
($2.19) La
2 - 10
($4.70) Tb
Last 5 Fade/RL (Play)
5 - 6
($0.41) Ari (Nj)
3 - 8 Nyr (Mon)
($1.95) Buf (Sj)

System //    ML W/L   // //    ML $$$   // //    RL W/L   // //    RL $$$   //
Progs/Regres //    2 - 2   // ($1.31) //    1 - 3   // ($1.20)
Dogs //    13 - 10   // $6.65 //    6 - 17   // ($0.50)
Rev Line //    4 - 5   // ($0.21) //    2 - 7   // ($0.50)
Fade Public //    10 - 12   // $1.26 //    6 - 16   // $2.95 
GSGA //    14 - 10   // $2.52 //    7 - 17   // $1.86 
Fd Low 3 //    6 - 6   // ($1.63) //    4 - 8   // ($0.50)
Chase RL //    3 - 7   // ($4.43) //    2 - 8   // ($3.45)

 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

Last 5 Fade/RL (Play)
4 - 6
($1.52)
3 - 7
($0.95) Nas (Chi)



Just noticed that my spreadsheet was counting the wrong team for a win.  The teams posted are correct but the stats are wrong.  I'll fix as soon as I can.  I noticed because Chicago lost but it got counted as a win in post #18. I found the problem, no time to fix.
 
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Posted: #20
Power Rank Play/RL
9 - 7
$0.48
4 - 12
($3.55) Pit
Power Rank Fade/RL (Play)
7 - 8
($3.36)
5 - 10
($1.45)
Last 5 Play/RL
7 - 8
($1.74)
3 - 12
($4.60)
Last 5 Fade/RL (Play)
5 - 10
($4.54)
3 - 12
($5.95) Cal (Was)

 
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Posted: #21
Power Rank Play/RL
9 - 8 Tb
($0.65) La
4 - 13 Stl
($4.55)
Power Rank Fade/RL (Play)
7 - 8 Ari (Phi)
($3.36)
5 - 10 Mon (Ott)
($1.45) Van (Dal)
Last 5 Play/RL
7 - 8 Stl
($1.74)
3 - 12 La
($4.60) Nyi
Last 5 Fade/RL (Play)
6 - 10 Ari (Phi)
($3.54)
3 - 13
($6.95) Mon (Ott)
System //    ML W/L   // //    ML $$$   // //    RL W/L   // //    RL $$$   //
Progs/Regres //    3 - 3   // ($1.64) //    2 - 4   // $0.30 
Dogs //    18 - 14   // $8.77 //    9 - 23   // $2.25 
Rev Line //    5 - 6   // ($0.42) //    3 - 8   // $1.00 
Fade Public //    14 - 16   // $2.65 //    9 - 21   // $7.30 
GSGA //    16 - 15   // ($1.11) //    8 - 23   // ($1.64)
Fd Low 3 //    8 - 7   // ($0.41) //    5 - 10   // $0.10 
Chase RL //    3 - 8   // ($5.43) //    2 - 9   // ($4.45)

 
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Posted: #22
Power Rank Play/RL
11 - 9
$0.35
6 - 14
($5.55)
Power Rank Fade/RL (Play)
8 - 10 Ari (Det)
($5.35)
5 - 13
($4.45)
Last 5 Play/RL
9 - 9
($0.74)
5 - 13
($5.60)
Last 5 Fade/RL (Play)
8 - 10 Ari (Det)
($0.85)
4 - 14 Det (Ari)
($7.95)
System //    ML W/L   // //    ML $$$   // //    RL W/L   // //    RL $$$   //
Progs/Regres //    4 - 3   // ($0.64) //    2 - 5   // ($0.70)
Dogs //    18 - 17   // $5.77 //    9 - 26   // ($0.75)
Rev Line //    6 - 8   // ($1.39) //    4 - 10   // ($1.00)
Fade Public //    15 - 17   // $3.31 //    9 - 23   // $5.30 
GSGA //    18 - 18   // ($2.25) //    10 - 26   // ($4.64)
Fd Low 3 //    8 - 9   // ($3.40) //    5 - 12   // ($1.90)
Chase RL //    3 - 9   // ($7.28) //    2 - 10   // ($5.45)

 
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Posted: #23
Power Rank Play/RL
11 - 9
$0.35
6 - 14
($1.00) Pit
Power Rank Fade/RL (Play)
9 - 10
($4.35)
6 - 13 Van (Nj)
($4.45)
Last 5 Play/RL
9 - 9 Nj
($0.74)
5 - 13
($1.75) Ana
Last 5 Fade/RL (Play)
9 - 11
($0.85)
5 - 15 Pit (Edm)
($6.55)
System //    ML W/L   // //    ML $$$   // //    RL W/L   // //    RL $$$   //
Progs/Regres //    4 - 3   // ($0.64) //    2 - 5   // ($0.70)
Dogs //    19 - 19   // $5.03 //    9 - 29   // ($3.75)
Rev Line //    6 - 8   // ($1.39) //    4 - 10   // $1.40 
Fade Public //    15 - 18   // $2.31 //    9 - 24   // $4.30 
GSGA //    18 - 18   // ($2.25) //    10 - 26   // ($0.79)
Fd Low 3 //    9 - 10   // ($3.40) //    6 - 13   // ($2.90)
Chase RL //    4 - 9   // ($6.02) //    2 - 11   // ($6.45)

 
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Posted: #24

Cleared GSGA for the edit in other thread,added GSGA2 (see other thread), and made L20 into L10 as NHL is half a season as MLB, and started to day.

 

 

 
 
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Posted: #25

Power Rank Play/RL

11 - 9

$0.35

6 - 14

($1.00) Pit

Power Rank Fade/RL (Play)

9 - 10

($4.35)

6 - 13 Van (Nj)

($4.45)

Last 5 Play/RL

9 - 9 Nj

($0.74)

5 - 13

($1.75) Ana

Last 5 Fade/RL (Play)

9 - 11

($0.85)

5 - 15 Pit (Edm)

($6.55)

Last 10 Play/RL

0 - 0 Nj

$0.00

0 - 0

$0.00

Last 10 Fade/RL (Play)

0 - 0

$0.00

0 - 0 Edm (Pit)

$0.00

System //    ML W/L   // //    ML $$$   // //    RL W/L   // //    RL $$$   //

Progs/Regres //    4 - 3   // ($0.64) //    2 - 5   // ($0.70)

Dogs //    19 - 19   // $5.03 //    9 - 29   // ($3.75)

Rev Line //    6 - 8   // ($1.39) //    4 - 10   // $1.40 

Fade Public //    15 - 18   // $2.31 //    9 - 24   // $4.30 

GSGA //    0 - 0   // $0.00 //    0 - 0   // $0.00 

GSGA2 //    0 - 0   // $0.00 //    0 - 0   // $0.00 

Fd Low 3 //    9 - 10   // ($3.40) //    6 - 13   // ($2.90)

Chase RL //    4 - 9   // ($6.02) //    2 - 11   // ($6.45)

 

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