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NHL logical chase

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Posted: #1
The success of TheRizz's Opening Game Favorite chase gave me the inspiration to start this before the all-star break.  Since then it has worked extremely well for my bankroll (especially using this along with TheRizz's system).

I will never chase more than 3 games and will always start by playing on or fading a home stand or road trip.  I look at every 3+ game home stand or road trip and cap accordingly. 

2/17
Game 1 play tonight: FADE Montreal (play on EDMONTON +114)

Montreal starts a Western Canada road trip tonight (Edmonton, Calgary, and Vancouver). 

The Canadiens have not swept a Western Canada road trip since January of 1998 (13 years ago).  I don't look for them to win the next 3 games in a row.  Granted its never easy laying money on Edmonton (although it worked out fading the Stars the other night on their similar road trip), but I'm confident the Canadiens will fall in Western Canada, at least once! 



Another chase I'm wanting to pull the trigger on is fading the hot NY Islanders on their 3 game home stand (Boston, LA, and Florida).  You could make an argument to play on or fade the Islanders this chase and will probably win either way, but I'm leaning towards the fade.  Thoughts? 

Thanks!
 
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Posted: #2
2-0 last night thanks to Edmonton & Boston.  Game 1 winners are always nice. 

Tonight game 1 play is fading Carolina (they are starting a 4-game home stand tonight). 

Minnesota starts a 3-game home stand tonight as well (Anaheim, Detroit, and Edmonton).  I am chasing them to win a game, too. 

Philadelphia -130 game 1
Minnesota -114 game 1

Good luck to you all.  This may very well crash and burn, but I've been riding high on this for quite a while now. 
 
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Posted: #3
Minnesota won last night to close the game 1 chase out on them.  Carolina also won though, so its on to game 2 of the Hurrcanes fade.

Tonight's plays:
New Jersey +115 (game 2 of the Carolina home stand fade)
Anaheim +118 (game 1 of the St. Louis home stand fade)
Phoenix +129 (game 1 of the Phoenix road chase)
Dallas +180 (game 1 of the Vancouver fade - team is a mess right now with injuries and this chase will be cheap since they'll be heavily favored).

Overall posted picks:
Game 1 = 3-1
Game 2 = 0-0
Game 3 = 0-0

 
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Posted: #4
Adding...

Tampa Bay -182 (game 1 of the Florida road fade - they haven't swept a road trip this season). 
 
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Posted: #5

Quote Originally Posted by seahawksanders:

Minnesota won last night to close the game 1 chase out on them.  Carolina also won though, so its on to game 2 of the Hurrcanes fade.

Tonight's plays:
New Jersey +115 (game 2 of the Carolina home stand fade)
Anaheim +118 (game 1 of the St. Louis home stand fade)
Phoenix +129 (game 1 of the Phoenix road chase)
Dallas +180 (game 1 of the Vancouver fade - team is a mess right now with injuries and this chase will be cheap since they'll be heavily favored).

Overall posted picks:
Game 1 = 3-1
Game 2 = 0-0
Game 3 = 0-0

 

Hi seahawk,

This look to be interesting, all those games won.

Will you continue to post the plays?

Thanks and GL

 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by grecycle99:

Hi seahawk,

This look to be interesting, all those games won.

Will you continue to post the plays?

Thanks and GL



Thanks, grecycle,

I was out of state on a ski trip (Utah), but still continued to do very well.  I didn't see much interest here, but since you asked I will definitely post. 

You are correct, all plays cleared and won (as have all my others since my last post).  My new chase for today is:

Detroit Red Wings -123 - Detroit starts a road trip tonight which should give us a cheap chase (@ Buffalo, @ LA, and @ Anaheim).  I feel confident they will win one of these first 3 games of the 5 game road trip. 

Overall system posted picks:
Game 1 = 4-4
Game 2 = 4-0
Game 3 = 0-0
TOTAL SYSTEM PICKS = 8-0

Thanks again, grecycle!


 
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Posted: #7
sound good.  Det is the play. Thanks
 
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Posted: #8
Hey, Seahawk, hats off to you, sir
This is definitely one of the best systems I have encountered this season and would be very grateful if you continued to post.
Also, if you have some time and inclination, a bit more regarding your filters and basic logic behind choosing the teams would be highly appreciated.
Thanks once more and BOL!
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by seahawksanders:



Detroit Red Wings -123 - Detroit starts a road trip tonight which should give us a cheap chase (@ Buffalo, @ LA, and @ Anaheim).  I feel confident they will win one of these first 3 games of the 5 game road trip. 



Red Wings finish it in the shoot-out!  Love those game 1 winners!

Overall system posted picks:
Game 1 = 5-4
Game 2 = 4-0
Game 3 = 0-0
TOTAL SYSTEM PICKS = 9-0
 
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Posted: #10
Today's play is a fade.

Fade the Blue Jackets on their 5-game road trip.  They start in Nashville today before heading to Western Canada.  I doubt they'll win all of these games.  I am betting they will lose 1 of their first 3 games.

Play on NASHVILLE PREDATORS -133

Overall system posted picks:
Game 1 = 5-4
Game 2 = 4-0
Game 3 = 0-0
TOTAL SYSTEM PICKS = 9-0
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by seahawksanders:


Fade the Blue Jackets on their 5-game road trip.  They start in Nashville today before heading to Western Canada.  I doubt they'll win all of these games.  I am betting they will lose 1 of their first 3 games.

Play on NASHVILLE PREDATORS -133


Another game 1 winner thanks to Nashville! 

Overall system posted picks:
Game 1 = 6-4
Game 2 = 4-0
Game 3 = 0-0
TOTAL SYSTEM PICKS = 10-0
 
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Posted: #12
A few chases starting for me tonight:

MONTREAL -111 - The Canadiens start a 3 game Southeastern road trip tonight (Atlanta, Florida, and TB).  I'm betting they will win one of their first two games.  If it goes to game 3 I may jump ship and add my losses to another chase. 

NY RANGERS -123 (this is a Buffalo FADE play) - The Sabres start a 7-game road trip tonight at MSG.  The Rangers are on game 2 of a home stand (they lost game 1).  I like the spot we are in here, but I really like fading Buffalo.  They have @ NYR, @ Carolina, and @ Philadelphia in their next 3.  I'm betting they won't win all 3. 

PHOENIX -138 (this is a Dallas FADE play) - The Stars have won their last two games, but are 2-5 in their last 7 and 1-4 in their last 5 road games.  They start a 4-game Western road trip tonight.  I'm betting they will lose one of their first 3 games (@ PHX, @ ANA, @ SJ).

If you are wanting one more play (won't count this play win or lose), try fading Nashville on their Western Canada road trip.  They start tonight in Edmonton. 

Good luck, everyone! 

Overall system posted picks:
Game 1 = 6-4
Game 2 = 4-0
Game 3 = 0-0
TOTAL SYSTEM PICKS = 10-0

 
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Posted: #13

Carolina & Anaheim helped me close out the last block of games!  Still no game 3s, which is great and 13-0 overall.

5 more starting tonight:

Vancouver +104 - The Canucks start a road trip tonight.  We get them cheap here.  I expect them to win one of the first 3 (@ LA, @ ANA, @ PHX).

Tampa Bay -134 - TB starts a home stand tonight vs. Montreal, Washington, and Chicago.  I think they get one of these and it shouldn't be too pricey.  TB has lost 2 straight, but are 3-2 in their last 5. 

Detroit -130 (PHOENIX fade play) - Phoenix starts a 3-game home stand vs Detroit, Vancouver, and Calgary.  I doubt they win all 3 of those. 

Colorado -139 (EDMONTON fade play) - Edmonton is 6-4 in their last 10, but they just lost their young star Taylor Hall for the season.  They start a road trip against Colorado, Philadelphia, and Washington. They will likely lose one of these.

St. Louis +105 (NY Islanders fade play) - The Islanders are 3-2 in their last 5 home games.  I think they drop one of these next 3 home games (STL, NJ, TOR), and it won't be too expensive to chase. 

Overall system posted picks:
Game 1 = 7-6
Game 2 = 6-0
Game 3 = 0-0
TOTAL SYSTEM PICKS = 13-0

 
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Posted: #14
 
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Posted: #15
Wow!  TB comes through in the shootout of my 1st game 3.  I sweated that one out...thank you St. Louis (the player not the city)!!!

That closes out the last set of 5 games to barely keep the system undefeated. 

Overall system posted picks:
Game 1 = 8-10
Game 2 = 9-1
Game 3 = 1-0
TOTAL SYSTEM PICKS = 18-0

I hope some of you have profited from this!  
 
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Posted: #16
seahawk=am brand new member but i have been following your stategy=am very impressed=I have been watching forums for about a year now and a lot of people put in quite an effort=congrats to all=will you be using your style for the upcoming baseball season?=Thanks=Jim {a young 74]
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by pinch:

seahawk=am brand new member but i have been following your stategy=am very impressed=I have been watching forums for about a year now and a lot of people put in quite an effort=congrats to all=will you be using your style for the upcoming baseball season?=Thanks=Jim {a young 74]


Thanks, Jim.  I will certainly be using a similar method for baseball.  Baseball chasing has been very good to me the last 4 seasons.  I seem to give a lot of it back during football season, though! 

Toronto +134 - Toronto starts a 3-game home stand tonight (vs. Philadelphia, Buffalo, and Tampa Bay).  Toronto is just 15-19 at home, but they are 5-1-4 in their last 10 and are trying to push toward locking up a playoff spot.  I struggled with which way to go here (a fade will probably win, too), but I think they are able to grab one of these 3 at home.  If they lose the first 2, the 3rd game shouldn't be too pricey. 
 
Nashville -153 - Nashville begins a 5-game home stand tonight.  In their first 3 games they will face Minnesota, Colorado, and Los Angeles.  Minnesota scares me, but I'm hopeful they can win one of these 3. 

Florida -130 (Ottawa fade) - Ottawa is on game 2 of a 4-game road trip.  They won the first one, but I highly doubt they win all 4 (@ Florida, @ TB, @ Buffalo). 



Overall system posted picks:
Game 1 = 8-10
Game 2 = 9-1
Game 3 = 1-0
TOTAL SYSTEM PICKS = 18-0
 
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Posted: #18
Hello seahawk=thanks for the answer to my question about baseball=good luck and will be following you
 
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Posted: #19
Toronto closes out another chase last night.  Today we have a game 3, Ottawa.  I am not personally playing this game 3, though.  I've lost 5.1 units on Ottawa and will split that over the two future chases.  I will continue to track it here though (in case anyone plays it). 

Phoenix +120 - Phoenix starts a 4-game road trip today.  They are 18-17 on the road and are currently in the 7th spot in the Western, which means every single game is huge for them. I think they will win one of their first 3 (@ Anaheim, @ Calgary, @ Edmonton).

Overall system posted picks:
Game 1 = 9-12
Game 2 = 10-2
Game 3 = 1-0
TOTAL SYSTEM PICKS = 20-0
(Ottawa game 3 pending)

 
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Posted: #20
Buffalo closes out game 3 of the Ottawa fade with the win today.  I didn't benefit from it, but hopefully someone else did. 

Overall system posted picks:
Game 1 = 9-12
Game 2 = 10-2
Game 3 = 2-0
TOTAL SYSTEM PICKS = 21-0
 
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Posted: #21
congrats seahawk==unbelievable
 
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Posted: #22
Phoenix won yesterday so 22-0.

Nice

Do you have something for this week?
Do you have a system like that in mlb, nba or cbb?
Thanks
GL
 
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Posted: #23
Thanks, Pinch & Grecycle.

And yes, Phoenix takes it to 22-0 with the game 1 win last night! 

Two potential chases start tonight.  Vancouver starts a 3-game home stand tonight and TB is on a 4-game road trip (they lost game 1).   I'm a little leary of chasing either of these (don't want to blow my baseball money), but I will tread lightly on Vancouver. 

Yes, I do baseball chases the same way and have had great success the last 4 years (last year was my best season yet - had help from a guy on another board). 

Vancouver -1 (-130) - The best team in the NHL is coming off a 5-game road trip where they won all 5 games.  They start a 3-game home stand tonight vs. Minnesota, Colorado, and Phoenix.  I think they win one of these, but it's too juicy for me to play straight ML.  If they win by 1 tonight I will end the chase and not lose any money.  If they lose tonight I will play the ML in game 2. 

Overall system posted picks:
Game 1 = 10-12
Game 2 = 10-2
Game 3 = 2-0
TOTAL SYSTEM PICKS = 22-0
 
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Posted: #24
amazing stuff Seahawk!
even TB notched up a huge win
just hope you keep on going
best of luck
 
 
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Posted: #25
Thanks, vinolio! 

Vancouver is a game 1 winner last night, awesome.  I ended up playing TB (small), but won't count it since I didn't officially post it.

Tonight there are 6 potential chases (Capitals road chase, Boston road chase, Phily road chase, Ottawa home fade, Nashville home fade, and Calgary home chase).  These are a mine field.  One of them is bound to go off, but hopefully I don't step on the wrong one.  Here's what I'm going with:

Boston -133 - Boston is on a 4-game road trip.  They lost the 1st game, but still go to Columbus, Nashville, and Toronto.  They are 22-13 on the road this season and will likely grab one of these next 3. 

Pittsburgh -123 (Ottawa fade) - The Senators are 6-4 in their last 10 games, but have nothing to play for this season.  The 3 teams they are facing on this home stand all are either trying to better their playoff position or fighting to make the playoffs.  Ottawa hosts Pittsburgh, New Jersey, and Tampa Bay. I can't see them sweeping this home stand. 

Los Angeles +103 (Nashville fade)  - The Predators are on a 5-game home stand.  They won the first 2 games, but still have LA, Boston, and Detroit left.  They are fighting for a playoff spot, but winning all 3 of these games seems like a really big mountain to climb.  I'm betting they drop one of these.  Nashville is 4-6 in their last 10 and 17-14 at home this season. 



Talked myself out of this one as I was writing.  This will not be a counted play, but I may play it small or -1. 

Philadelphia -154 - The Flyers head to Florida, Dallas, and Atlanta on their road trip that begins tonight.  Even though they are 4-6 in their last 10 overall games, they are 21-12 on the road and will hopefully win one of these 3.

Overall system posted picks:
Game 1 = 11-12
Game 2 = 10-2
Game 3 = 2-0
TOTAL SYSTEM PICKS = 23-0
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