Posted:
#1
So while waiting for every team to get at least 5 games played (uhmmm...Carolina and a few others), I have been looking at different systems out there and how to implement them onto my spreadsheet.
(Speaking of, NHL just jumped to 31 teams which meant I had to go and search all my formulas that I had set for 30 teams MLB and adjust accordingly...big pain in the rear)
The system in the title caught my eye as it's goal based. If you google the title, you will find the whole page (hint...insiders).
Here's a bit from what the web site says:
"You have to find the league averages for goals scored and goals allowed for home and road teams to get you started, and that is why this theory works much better when you have a larger sample size; ..... It should come as no surprise that the home team scores more goals than the away team, but it isn’t by as much as you would think.
Then you would check out the two teams in the matchup for which you are looking to bet on, and starting with the home team, you would take the number of goals they average on their own ice and divide it into the league average to figure out their percentage compared to the rest of the NHL. You do this for both the goals scored and against, for both the home and away teams.
Once you have the numbers for both teams, you can figure out the number of predicted goals."
I have done this. I'm going to post the team with the better average, and the Dif between the two stats. Let's see how this goes. Hopefully, my copy/paste from my spreadsheet works well.
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