Posted:
#51
No plays tonight!!!
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NHL B2B Fade
Posted:
#57
Still trying to make this better. I went thru the list and added in RPI, so we would only fade the road team if the home team had a higher RPI. It took off alot of plays and only left 20. Of the 20 the record was 14-6 so 70% Up 5% from the original way. So do we want more plays at 65% or less plays but better at 70%? Tell me what you think? I won't say which way I'm leaning yet.
This will also decide on tonights play. NJ is at BUF. If we play the original way then we will fade NJ tonight, however if we play the RPI way there will be no play because NJ has a higher RPI then BUF.
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Posted:
#58
Right. I think filters are a good idea. I think what I will use is a graded unit scale. If the home team has a lower RPI, and less than a .500 home win record, I will bet 1 unit. If they have a lower RPI, but have at least a .500 home record, 2 units. Also 2 units if the home team has a higher RPI, but less than a .500 home record. 3 units if the home team has a higher RPI and at least a .500 record, and 4 units if the home team has all that, and the visiting team has less than a .500 road record. Then I will throw this filter in. No play on the 5 worst home record teams as of game time.
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Posted:
#60
Oh. Money management. Although the graded unit betting would be a bit tedious to Labouchere, it can be done. Just have separate lines for the 1-unit bets, 2unit bets, and so on.
I haven't decided which way I'm going to go yet; flat betting would also work well here if the high win% holds up....that way you wouldn't get hit so hard if you lost 4 or 5 in a row.
I haven't decided which way I'm going to go yet; flat betting would also work well here if the high win% holds up....that way you wouldn't get hit so hard if you lost 4 or 5 in a row.
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Posted:
#64
RC, choosing which method to play has to depend on the average odds that each method provides. I'd rather play the 65% method at -110 average than the 70% at -140 average. Does the original average payout make up for the decreased accuracy? If they're basically the same then by all means filter out as many as possible.
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Posted:
#67
Quote Originally Posted by RealityCheck1:
For the losing home plays I calculated the average line. For the original 15 losses, 3 were dogs and the average for the other 12 home losses is -148.
For the RPI 6 home losses the average is -155
Seems that it would be better to use the filter since the chalk is basically the same, huh?
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