I was just looking at the bounceback theory just this afternoon as a matter of fact, I played it last year with great results.
I fine tuned it with three additional criteria:
1. Do NOT play on a qualifying team who underperformed the week prior if that team has yet to win a game ATS. (this eliminated the poor teams at the beginning of last year like the Saints and Rams, who kept qualifying but just could not get out of the starting gate).
2. Do NOT play on a qualifying team who underperformed the week prior if that team has an ATS winning percentage of .375 (this eliminated the bad teams throughout the season).
3. Do not play the system on the last weekend of the season. At this point, the playoff teams are mostly determined and no-one tends to play for anything that last week.
Last year: the record was 27-12 ATS (69%)
Below are the teams and their records ATS following this system using the criteria outlined above.
Buffalo (2-0)
Cincinnati (1-0)
Denver (2-1)
Houston (1-1)
Jacksonville (1-0)
Kansas City (1-0)
New England (0-1)
Oakland (1-0)
San Diego (1-1)
Tennessee (1-1)
Arizona (3-0)
Carolina (4-1)
Dallas (1-1)
Detroit (3-1)
Green Bay (1-0)
Minnesota (1-0)
New Orleans (0-1)
NY Giants (2-0)
Philadelphia (1-0)
San Francisco (0-1)
Seattle (1-1)
Tampa Bay (1-0)
Washington (0-1)
After dissecting this system every way I could think of, I found a subset and additional tightener for this system that really made a profit last year. Granted there aren't many games a year, but you have a higher probability of winning.
Using the system and applying the three criteria above, if the team qualifying the week following their terrible performance played at home, the record last year was 16-3 ATS (84%).
Of those 19 games in this subset, if the qualifying team underperformed on the road the week before, the ATS record is 11-3 (78%). However if the qualifying team underperformed at home the week before and are playing at home again, they perform much better. They were a perfect 5-0 ATS (100%) last season.
To summarize: Play on any team this week that underperformed last week by 14 or more ATS points, if they have already won at least one ATS game and have at least a .375 ATS winning percentage, especially if the qualifying team is playing at home this week.
The system is designed to begin in week 3 of the season. While there were six teams that qualify for week 2, they all fail the first two criteria ;-) The record so far is 2-2 ATS without the criteria, but look who the losers are - the Rams and Lions. And right now, I wouldn't bet a dime on them until they prove to me they can cover.
However, as of this post, looks like the only qualifier so far for next week is Kansas City. The Chiefs won ATS in week 1, but underperformed today against the Raiders. So I will be taking them unless Atlanta lays an egg in the 4th against the Bucs.
I will need to back-test this system prior to last year. I will post my findings once I have the time to do the research.
Happy winning!
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