Posted:
#26
OK, I lost my "official pick" this week -- NO/Car over 52, but did anyone notice that this system's s/u picks went 8 wins and 3 losses
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NFL Def. vs. Off as predictor of score
Posted:
#28
Yep, my slightly modified version (w/ strength of schedule adj.) went 8-5 SU and 7-6 ATS.
It's consistently going 55-60% ATS this season. But, the only way to really hit those win %s would be to bet ALL the games the way the system recommends. A tough requirement.
I may try it this week with small plays just for kicks.
It's consistently going 55-60% ATS this season. But, the only way to really hit those win %s would be to bet ALL the games the way the system recommends. A tough requirement.
I may try it this week with small plays just for kicks.
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Posted:
#30
Week 10 
Projected Score San Francisco 26 Chicago 23
SF is a -2 ½ point favorite and the o/u is 43
small bet on the over
Projected Score Denver 21 Washington 20
Denver is a -4 ½ point favorite and the o/u is 36 ½
Denver has had to tough opponents with tough defenses back to back—Baltimore and Pittsburgh—and I don't think Washington has the same defense as though two teams. This looks closer on paper than it will be. Again, the system will pick the winner, Denver, but it is too close to call. No bet.
Projected Score Buffalo 24 Tennessee 20
Tennessee is a -6 point favorite and the o/u is 41
This is one that the system is NOT projecting correctly. I think Tennessee wins the game. No bet.
Projected Score is New Orleans 31 St Louis 21
New Orleans is a -14 point favorite and the o/u is 50
No bet.
Projected Score Pittsburgh 21 Cincinnati 20
Pittsburgh is a -7 point favorite and the o/u is 40 ½
Pittsburgh wins the game but doesn't cover. If you have to bet the game take the Bengals and the points. The o/u is way too close to call.
Projected score NY Jets 25 Jacksonville 18
The Jets are a 6 ½ point favorite and the o/u is 39
The Jets are at home and they will cover. The o/u is a small bet. Take the Jets and lay the 6 ½
Projected score Minnesota 27 Detroit 19
The Vikings are a -16 ½ point favorite and the o/u is 49
Of course the Vikings win but I am not going to lay that many points. The under may warrant a small wager. No bets for me.
Projected score Miami 29 Tampa Bay 25
Miami is a 10 ½ point favorite and the o/u is 43
The projected o/u is 54 which is a whopping 11 over the books' o/u. THE OVER IS A STRONG PLAY. This could be the best pick this system makes this year. Money in the bank.
Projected score Atlanta 25 Carolina 25
Atlanta is a 2 ½ point favorite and the o/u is 44
The projected over is 6 points more than the book. Consider a small play on the over.
Projected score Kansas City 19 Oakland 16
Oakland is a -1 ½ point favorite and the o/u is 36 ½
no bets.
Projected score is San Diego 23 Philadelphia 21
San Diego is a 2 ½ point favorite and the o/u is 49
consider a small wager on the under.
Projected score is Dallas 29 Green Bay 23
Green Bay is a -1 point favorite and the o/u is 49
Oh, my! Dallas is a dog while being the projected favorite. Looks like a good bet. Take Dallas.
Projected score Arizona 28 Seattle 21
Arizona is a 9 ½ point favorite and the o/u is 47
No bets.
Projected score New England 26 Indianapolis 17
Indianapolis is a -2 ½ point favorite and the o/u is 50
I think the 1972 Miami Dolphins will have one less team to worry about ruining their undefeated record after this week. Indianapolis will lose its first game this week. New England wins on the road. The under is 7 less than the books. Consider a small wager on the under.
Projected score Baltimore 23 Cleveland 13
Baltimore is a -10 point favorite and the o/u is 40 ½
No bet.
Bottom line play the OVER in the Miami/Tampa Bay game and take Dallas and the points to beat Green Bay. You may thank me later.
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Posted:
#31
Hold the presses!!! Correction. I looked at my numbers incorrectly on the Miami v Tampa Bay game. The projected score is Tampa Bay 27 Miami 19. That makes the projected total 46 and the o/u is 43. The over is only a lean. You may want to take Tampa Bay and the points since TB is the projected winner and Miami is such a big favorite. Dallas is still money.
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Posted:
#33
I don't know. You see my record on this thread with respect to this system's picks. I think I'm 2-2. I personally bet on Dallas this week and gave up the -3 points. That means it's probably a loser. 
I think my favorite pick regarding this system this week is take the points and New England. Indy hasn't covered in weeks and they are laying a ton of points against a really good New England team that has a legitimate shot at winning the game straight up.
Good luck
I think my favorite pick regarding this system this week is take the points and New England. Indy hasn't covered in weeks and they are laying a ton of points against a really good New England team that has a legitimate shot at winning the game straight up.
Good luck
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