Can somebody remind me the details behind the system where you fade underdogs that won SU in their previous game?
Does it matter if they are at home the next game? on the road? favorite? or underdog again? Or any combination of the above?
If you have the ATS records for this year that would be great too.
Thanks in advance for the input!
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Can somebody remind me the details behind the system where you fade underdogs that won SU in their previous game?
Does it matter if they are at home the next game? on the road? favorite? or underdog again? Or any combination of the above?
If you have the ATS records for this year that would be great too.
Thanks in advance for the input!
20 years results show that a any team that wins as dog when favored in next game in NFL games are a poor bet at 35%
i only have tracked 11 years of this stat and have same % take the DOG
BUT not blindly remember some DOGS are bad Road teams and Bad at HOME too
it's the margin of victory from last game that gives you the Bounce factor
IF the DOG is heading up from a baad loss and the fav exploded from a bad loss expect that DOG to Cover or WIN S/U
the breaking point for NFL teams is a WIN by two TD's or more
RESULTS from this year
JAGS WIN 41 -0 vs Jets Bye Week next
Texans at Home got smoked by Cowboys before this matchup
JAGS as an 8 pt fav LOST by 20 points 27-7
NEXt Game Jags as a 7.5 dog at Philly WON 13-6
Now expect Jags to reverse Bounce at Home as BIG Chalk
JETS after that loss came home favored by 2 to Phins won the game by 3 points
Dallas has been bouncing wildly past 4 games
I expect them not to COVER at Skins this week
Ravens WON as DOG but wasnt from a BIG minus
THEY will avenge two losses to Cincy from last year THEY are one of FEW teams that can WIN as a DOG then COVER next game as Chalk
Cincy is headed down from fav loss To falcons at home they are -6 points
besides that i have mR fade himself Vegas VIC on Cincy as a 3 dog
PATRIOTS won as DOG but was up at +16 ats
they want revenge from Colts thrashing last year
when you add revenge in forget about it
They win by 10 or more simply RUNNING the ball more with 3 backs yes 3 backs
Dillion Maroney and Kevin Faulk
Keep manning on the Bench He Caant Beat YOU
COLTS get 1st loss of Year UP at FOXBORO again
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20 years results show that a any team that wins as dog when favored in next game in NFL games are a poor bet at 35%
i only have tracked 11 years of this stat and have same % take the DOG
BUT not blindly remember some DOGS are bad Road teams and Bad at HOME too
it's the margin of victory from last game that gives you the Bounce factor
IF the DOG is heading up from a baad loss and the fav exploded from a bad loss expect that DOG to Cover or WIN S/U
the breaking point for NFL teams is a WIN by two TD's or more
RESULTS from this year
JAGS WIN 41 -0 vs Jets Bye Week next
Texans at Home got smoked by Cowboys before this matchup
JAGS as an 8 pt fav LOST by 20 points 27-7
NEXt Game Jags as a 7.5 dog at Philly WON 13-6
Now expect Jags to reverse Bounce at Home as BIG Chalk
JETS after that loss came home favored by 2 to Phins won the game by 3 points
Dallas has been bouncing wildly past 4 games
I expect them not to COVER at Skins this week
Ravens WON as DOG but wasnt from a BIG minus
THEY will avenge two losses to Cincy from last year THEY are one of FEW teams that can WIN as a DOG then COVER next game as Chalk
Cincy is headed down from fav loss To falcons at home they are -6 points
besides that i have mR fade himself Vegas VIC on Cincy as a 3 dog
PATRIOTS won as DOG but was up at +16 ats
they want revenge from Colts thrashing last year
when you add revenge in forget about it
They win by 10 or more simply RUNNING the ball more with 3 backs yes 3 backs
Dillion Maroney and Kevin Faulk
Keep manning on the Bench He Caant Beat YOU
COLTS get 1st loss of Year UP at FOXBORO again
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