Hello everyone! I am new to sports betting. I have a decent knowledge of basketball and football and I'm trying to get a head start on baseball this year by reading anything I can get my hands on.
I have made some picks and reasons behind them and want to share them with everyone so that I can get some feedback as to where my logic might be off in some (or all) of my picks. I do not currently have a mathmatical formula to create my own lines as of yet, that is something I am studying as well.
Cincinnati at Miami: Miami +3
I think they can win against a mediocre Cincinnati team at home. Palmer mentioned in a recent interview that he was "just trying to find a way to win". Doesn't sound very confident to me. I know Miami is lousy but I feel they will win this game or at least play hard just for the sake of what little pride they have left. I'm sure getting Parcells has eased the minds of team as a whole, giving them some hope for next season. The more I think about it though, I think this was a dumb, feel, "want the Dolphins to win" play.
Dallas at Washington: Dallas +9
The first quarter with most of the starters should give them enough. They don't want Washington to be in the playoffs I'm sure but I also don't think they will play starters all that much. Terry Glenn might see a few plays and if he's even at 80% I like it. Again I dunno if they will win but I'm pretty sure they won't lose by 10.
New England at New York: over 47.5 (won)
I was surprised this game went pretty much excatly as I thought it would, guns blazing the whole way. I figured New England would score their 30ish on drives and Eli would throw a lot resulting in either scores, or INT's. Both teams played their hearts out.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore: Pittsburgh +3
Don't have any thoughts here really, I used a simply past 6 game performance power ranking on these two teams to see what happens.
Ohio St. vs LSU: LSU +4
I don't think this game will be anywhere even close. Does anyone remember last year? SEC is so dominate and Ohio St. fans are delusional imho. I think LSU will win by 2 TD's or more.
Hawaii vs Georgia: Hawaii +7.5
I first saw this game at +9 and wish I got it then. I am excited about this game. Hawaii has skill and plays with a ferocious intensity. I know they didn't have the tough scheduele that Georgia did but they can put some points up in a hurry. Georgia is again a tough SEC team and probably better than Hawaii, but I don't think anyone's told Hawaii that. Plus they are reeling off an undefeated season. Yeah they will be ready to play, and I love that Samoan dance. . .
Michigan at Florida: Florida -10
App State, Tebow, SEC, ect. Blowout right?
Oregon vs South Florida: South Florida -6.5
Basically this pick comes down to Matt Grothe. I don't think they were really the #2 team in the nation when they were ranked it, but still an exceptional one. Oregon has a tough defense but I think Grothe will give them a lot of trouble as he'll just go off and run the ball whenever he wants. If USF starts scoring I don't think Orgeon will be able to catch up.
Central Florida vs Mississippi St.: UCF -3 (loss)
It hurts my heart. I went to UCF. I basically thought that if Smith could run on them, they should win the game. Mississippi St. did a good job limiting him eary on I thought. In hindsight I should have placed more emphasis on Kyle Israel sucking hard and apparantly our kicker likes to miss field goals. I should have also placed more emphasis on Mississippi St's scheduele. I also thought that it would be a much higher scoring game.
There they are. My first sports bets. Maybe because I am from Florida I am betting on those teams. I also like the SEC. Perhaps I am betting on bias alone. I really tried to take my emotions out of the equation and those are still the picks I came up with. Any and all comments are welcomed and appreciated greatly!
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Hello everyone! I am new to sports betting. I have a decent knowledge of basketball and football and I'm trying to get a head start on baseball this year by reading anything I can get my hands on.
I have made some picks and reasons behind them and want to share them with everyone so that I can get some feedback as to where my logic might be off in some (or all) of my picks. I do not currently have a mathmatical formula to create my own lines as of yet, that is something I am studying as well.
Cincinnati at Miami: Miami +3
I think they can win against a mediocre Cincinnati team at home. Palmer mentioned in a recent interview that he was "just trying to find a way to win". Doesn't sound very confident to me. I know Miami is lousy but I feel they will win this game or at least play hard just for the sake of what little pride they have left. I'm sure getting Parcells has eased the minds of team as a whole, giving them some hope for next season. The more I think about it though, I think this was a dumb, feel, "want the Dolphins to win" play.
Dallas at Washington: Dallas +9
The first quarter with most of the starters should give them enough. They don't want Washington to be in the playoffs I'm sure but I also don't think they will play starters all that much. Terry Glenn might see a few plays and if he's even at 80% I like it. Again I dunno if they will win but I'm pretty sure they won't lose by 10.
New England at New York: over 47.5 (won)
I was surprised this game went pretty much excatly as I thought it would, guns blazing the whole way. I figured New England would score their 30ish on drives and Eli would throw a lot resulting in either scores, or INT's. Both teams played their hearts out.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore: Pittsburgh +3
Don't have any thoughts here really, I used a simply past 6 game performance power ranking on these two teams to see what happens.
Ohio St. vs LSU: LSU +4
I don't think this game will be anywhere even close. Does anyone remember last year? SEC is so dominate and Ohio St. fans are delusional imho. I think LSU will win by 2 TD's or more.
Hawaii vs Georgia: Hawaii +7.5
I first saw this game at +9 and wish I got it then. I am excited about this game. Hawaii has skill and plays with a ferocious intensity. I know they didn't have the tough scheduele that Georgia did but they can put some points up in a hurry. Georgia is again a tough SEC team and probably better than Hawaii, but I don't think anyone's told Hawaii that. Plus they are reeling off an undefeated season. Yeah they will be ready to play, and I love that Samoan dance. . .
Michigan at Florida: Florida -10
App State, Tebow, SEC, ect. Blowout right?
Oregon vs South Florida: South Florida -6.5
Basically this pick comes down to Matt Grothe. I don't think they were really the #2 team in the nation when they were ranked it, but still an exceptional one. Oregon has a tough defense but I think Grothe will give them a lot of trouble as he'll just go off and run the ball whenever he wants. If USF starts scoring I don't think Orgeon will be able to catch up.
Central Florida vs Mississippi St.: UCF -3 (loss)
It hurts my heart. I went to UCF. I basically thought that if Smith could run on them, they should win the game. Mississippi St. did a good job limiting him eary on I thought. In hindsight I should have placed more emphasis on Kyle Israel sucking hard and apparantly our kicker likes to miss field goals. I should have also placed more emphasis on Mississippi St's scheduele. I also thought that it would be a much higher scoring game.
There they are. My first sports bets. Maybe because I am from Florida I am betting on those teams. I also like the SEC. Perhaps I am betting on bias alone. I really tried to take my emotions out of the equation and those are still the picks I came up with. Any and all comments are welcomed and appreciated greatly!
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