New System on CBB

This is just the beginning of a system I want to track and see how it does. The idea behind the system is to wager on those teams where the line was off by more than 10 in their previous game. If they covered by more than 10 they are a bet as long as they are not against another team that also covered in last game by more than 10. Also those teams playing a team that failed to cover by more than 10 would be play against teams. If a team that covered by nore than 10 is playing a team that did not cover by more than ten than these would be the special plays used for larger bets.

 

Using this criteria, the plays for Wednesday, Feb 4th are as follows.

 Wichita St

Georgoa St

Villanova

UCLA

Northeastern

St Louis

Bowling Green

UMass

Miami of Florida

Evansville

Tenn

Ok St

 

The bigger wagers for tomorrow, again involving a team that coverd by more than 10 in last game against a team that failed to cover by more than 10.

 

Creighton

Missouri

Mississippi

Minnesota

 

I chose these for my picks tomorrow in the NCAABB contest, so will be able to track there starting tomorrow how they do. My theory is that the books may not adjust the lines so quickly on these teams after their last game and their will be value in wagering on them. Curious to see if any merit to my theory.

 

GL all.

thanks for sharing 

 

best of luck

Early selections for tomorrow:

 

Top Pick                       Record 3-1

Elon

 

Regular Picks               Record  7-4-1

Appalachian St

Temple

Georgia Tech

Valparaiso

Western Carolina

Penn St

Vanderbilt

Elon

Florida Atlantic

Detroit

Morehead St

St Johns

Tenn Martin

Pacific

Long Beach St

Washington

Oregon

Wash St

Portland

San Francisco

 

First trial night results were good. Hope continues...gl all...JJ

Patrick, thanks for interest. My reasoning is that the bookmakers fail to adjust their lines until they have seen a few games that have high variance with their lines. So we take advantage of this by wagering on these teams in their very next game. My theory includes playing against teams that fail to cover by 10 or more. I just started testing this theory last night so will wait and see how it does over the next month or so and if success plan to use next year for CBB. I do not know if of any value for other sports or if it would even maje sense.

 

GL...JJ

The trial went down in flames last night. The regular plays went 5-14. The special plays went 1-0 for a 5-1 record on special plays. There are no selections for Friday games. I will post only the special plays for Saturday if I find them. I look at the final scores on Covers and the point spread for the game posted there to determine if a play. The game used for selection purposes is the last game played by each team. So will look for the special plays which means one team has to have covered the spread by more than 10 and the opponent must have lost their last game or not covered the spread by more than 10. Gl to all.....JJ

Ok..only special plays for Sarurday, Feb 7th. Record 5-1.

 

NC-Wilmington  +20

Miami Florida    +14

Kansas             -12

Ohio                 -16

Manhattan        +4.5

William & Mary +15.5

Ohio St             -5

Texas Tech       +4.5

 

GL...JJ

How do you determine your special plays??

Top plays are not based on line. They are selected based on their last game and their ability to cover the spread by more than 10 and must be against a team that failed to cover the spread in their last game by more than 10. Naturally if you have time to wait for the best possible line on the play that will improve your record especially when public is pushing line in our favor as was the case with Kansas vs Oklahoma State today.  Wish I had waited on Kansas because my book had it at 10.5 closer to the game. Oh well...you always can learn from experience..sigh!!

Any special plays today? thanks and BOL 

Early special play for Monday....

 

Boise St

 

Will check tomorrow if any more games have a line.

 

GL ALL....

Locked on Boise State +1...omly special for today

 GL all

 

Ok. No plays yesterday but there are two special plays for today. Keep in mind this has not been back tested so is only a test system based on betting the team that covered by more than 10 in their last game against a team that failed to cover by more than 10 in their last game. Only rules so far are as above. The plays for today would be:

 

Western Carolina at Charleston bet on Charleston

Southern Mississippi at Rice  bet on Rice

 

Started testing Feb 7th and record to date is 15-5.

 

GL to all....JJ

oops correction record is 10-5...sorry.

Both selections are covering at this point...will post results when games are final...gl all.

 

JJ

Charleston covers by 3.5...

 

Rice is covering big so far,,,

 

gl all!!

We have four selections under the special plays today:

 

Loisiana Monroe -2

 

North Texas -10.5

 

Tenn Martin  -10.5

 

Trow  -1.5

 

GL all.......JJ