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New Strategy based on Matchbook

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Posted: #1
This is a strategy have seen work for some players and want to track it here to see how strong the strategy will be. All plays posted will be based on Matchbook lines and the selection will be from all major sports where there is a difference of 10 or more between the juice on the posted lines. The time in some players selections is very important but due to my schedule this will not be a factor in my selections. Whenever I have the time to track the differences and post will vary so the record may be better or worse depending on when you track the differences. What you are looking for is the side where Matchbook has the highest juice or vigorish and the difference is 10 or greater than the juice on the opposite side. The reasoning is that they are looking for money to be played on the wrong side so offer lower vigorish. Any questions feel free to ask.

Here are the selections for NFL, NBA, CBB and CFB:

NFL

Jaguars +1.5
Bears -3
Patriots +9
Falcons -1.5
Chiefs +13
Ravens -10
Redskins +4

NBA

Detroit  -4
San Antonio  -7.5
OKC  -2.5
76'rs  -12.5

CBB

Michigan  -4.5
South Alabama  -3.5
Memphis  -1
Arizona St -1
Montana -1
San Diego +8.5
South Dakota St  +3

CFB

Iowa State  +2.5
Tenn  +5.5

This is a test, not a proven strategy, bet at your own risk. Lets see how they do over a period of time before investing. Good luck in all your wagers.


 
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Posted: #2
Quote Originally Posted by JimmyJet:

This is a strategy have seen work for some players and want to track it here to see how strong the strategy will be. All plays posted will be based on Matchbook lines and the selection will be from all major sports where there is a difference of 10 or more between the juice on the posted lines. The time in some players selections is very important but due to my schedule this will not be a factor in my selections. Whenever I have the time to track the differences and post will vary so the record may be better or worse depending on when you track the differences. What you are looking for is the side where Matchbook has the highest juice or vigorish and the difference is 10 or greater than the juice on the opposite side. The reasoning is that they are looking for money to be played on the wrong side so offer lower vigorish. Any questions feel free to ask.

Here are the selections for NFL, NBA, CBB and CFB:

NFL

Jaguars +1.5
Bears -3
Patriots +9
Falcons -1.5
Chiefs +13
Ravens -10
Redskins +4

NBA

Detroit  -4   Loss
San Antonio  -7.5    Win
OKC  -2.5    Loss
76'rs  -12.5   Loss

CBB

Michigan  -4.5   Loss
South Alabama  -3.5   Win
Memphis  -1   Loss
Arizona St -1   Loss
Montana -1   Loss
San Diego +8.5   Loss
South Dakota St  +3   Win

CFB

Iowa State  +2.5   Win
Tenn  +5.5   Loss

This is a test, not a proven strategy, bet at your own risk. Lets see how they do over a period of time before investing. Good luck in all your wagers.




Interesting result with small sample. The results are just the opposite of what I assumed they would be. The lines with the lower vigorish turned out to be the better plays. This may have to do with timing so lets study some more. I will try to post my observations about the same time each day. Of course no results for NFL as they are pending..
 
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Posted: #3
Please keep in mind this is research and a very small sample. To restate the parameters we are looking at sides that show 10 or more difference in vigorish or juice at Bookmaker. We are listing those that are the most vigorish assuming that they do not want these bets. So far our assumption has shown to be wrong.

CFB

West Virgina  -2.5
LSU  +1

CBB

Indiana St +1
So Ill  +3
Missouri  -5.5
Wichita St  -14
Northern Iowa  -16
New Mexico  -7.5

NBA

Knicks   + 11.5


 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by JimmyJet:

Please keep in mind this is research and a very small sample. To restate the parameters we are looking at sides that show 10 or more difference in vigorish or juice at Bookmaker. We are listing those that are the most vigorish assuming that they do not want these bets. So far our assumption has shown to be wrong.

CFB

West Virgina  -2.5  Loss
LSU  +1   Loss

CBB

Indiana St +1   Win
So Ill  +3  Win
Missouri St -5.5   Loss
Wichita St  -14  Win
Northern Iowa  -16   Win
New Mexico  -7.5   Loss

NBA

Knicks   + 11.5   Win


 
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Posted: #5
Saturday....lots of games!!

NCAAB

Ill   -2.5
UCLA  -5
Rider  +6
St Bona  +7.5
Delaware  +5
St Joes  -7
Butler  -14
Niagra  -6
Auburn  -16
Tulsa  -8.5
Kentucky  -7.5
Marquette  +1
Hofstra  -1.5
Northeastern  -9.5
Wright St  -7.5
Fairfield  -1.5
Washington  -11.5
Kansas  -6
Northwestern  +5
St Louis  +2
South Alabama  +2.5
Wash St  -7.5
Youngstown St  -1
Marist  +5.5
Middle Tenn St  -5.5
Nevada  +3.5
UWGB  +3
North Texas  +1
Virginia Tech  +5
Denver  +5
Northern Az  +5
Tenn Tech  -2
Austin Peay  +5.5
Weber St  -4
Pacific  -10.5
Cal St Fullerton  +1.5
Cal Riverside  +2.5
UC Irvine  -1
Utah St  -5.5
Hawaii  +1

NBA

Nets  +10.5
Hornets  -2.5
Portland  -4

NCAAF

N Ill  +7
Miss  -3
Eastern Carolina  +7.5
Mich St  +7.5




 
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Posted: #6
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by JimmyJet:

Saturday....lots of games!!

NCAAB

Ill   -2.5   Loss
UCLA  -5   Loss
Rider  +6   Win
St Bona  +7.5   Loss
Delaware  +5   Win
St Joes  -7   Loss
Butler  -14   Loss
Niagra  -6   Loss
Auburn  -16   Win
Tulsa  -8.5   Win
Kentucky  -7.5   Win
Marquette  +1   Loss
Hofstra  -1.5   Loss
Northeastern  -9.5   Win
Wright St  -7.5   Win
Fairfield  -1.5   Win
Washington  -11.5   Loss
Kansas  -6   Win
Northwestern  +5   Loss
St Louis  +2   Loss
South Alabama  +2.5   Win
Wash St  -7.5   Loss
Youngstown St  -1   Loss
Marist  +5.5   Loss
Middle Tenn St  -5.5   Win
Nevada  +3.5   Loss
UWGB  +3   Win
North Texas  +1   Loss
Virginia Tech  +5   Win
Denver  +5   Loss
Northern Az  +5   Loss
Tenn Tech  -2   Win
Austin Peay  +5.5   Win
Weber St  -4   Win
Pacific  -10.5   Loss
Cal St Fullerton  +1.5   Loss
Cal Riverside  +2.5   Win
UC Irvine  -1   Win
Utah St  -5.5   Loss
Hawaii  +1   Loss

NBA

Nets  +10.5   Win
Hornets  -2.5   Win
Portland  -4   Win

NCAAF

N Ill  +7   Loss
Miss  -3   Win
Eastern Carolina  +7.5   Win
Mich St  +7.5   Loss




 
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Posted: #8
Sunday games that qualify. After one week will do a tally of the wins and losses by sport.

NBA

Charlotte  +11
Dallas  +6.5

NCAAB

Wisconsin  -4.5
Iowa St  -5.5
N Iowa  -6.5
NC ST  +1
Bradley  +10.5
Evansville  +5
Mich  -1
Pepperdine  +13
Duke  -9.5
Ill St  -4.5

 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by JimmyJet:

This is a strategy have seen work for some players and want to track it here to see how strong the strategy will be. All plays posted will be based on Matchbook lines and the selection will be from all major sports where there is a difference of 10 or more between the juice on the posted lines. The time in some players selections is very important but due to my schedule this will not be a factor in my selections. Whenever I have the time to track the differences and post will vary so the record may be better or worse depending on when you track the differences. What you are looking for is the side where Matchbook has the highest juice or vigorish and the difference is 10 or greater than the juice on the opposite side. The reasoning is that they are looking for money to be played on the wrong side so offer lower vigorish. Any questions feel free to ask.

Here are the selections for NFL, NBA, CBB and CFB:

NFL

Jaguars +1.5   Loss
Bears -3   Win
Patriots +9   Win
Falcons -1.5   Win
Chiefs +13   Win
Ravens -10   Loss
Redskins +4   Win

NBA

Detroit  -4
San Antonio  -7.5
OKC  -2.5
76'rs  -12.5

CBB

Michigan  -4.5
South Alabama  -3.5
Memphis  -1
Arizona St -1
Montana -1
San Diego +8.5
South Dakota St  +3

CFB

Iowa State  +2.5
Tenn  +5.5

This is a test, not a proven strategy, bet at your own risk. Lets see how they do over a period of time before investing. Good luck in all your wagers.


 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by JimmyJet:

Sunday games that qualify. After one week will do a tally of the wins and losses by sport.

NBA

Charlotte  +11   Win
Dallas  +6.5   Loss

NCAAB

Wisconsin  -4.5   Win
Iowa St  -5.5   Win
N Iowa  -6.5   Win
NC ST  +1   Loss
Bradley  +10.5   Loss
Evansville  +5   Loss
Mich  -1   Win
Pepperdine  +13   Loss
Duke  -9.5   Win
Ill St  -4.5   Win



Interesting observation...the favorites all covered and the dogs all lost in NCABB
 
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Posted: #11
Monday Jan 4th, 2010

NCAAB

Cinn   -4
Drexel   +2.5
ODU   -12
Fairfield   +7
Loy Md   +6
Rider   +2.5
Davidson   -10.5
Morehead St   -13
Utah St   +2
Murray St   -20.5
Middle Tenn St   +18.5
Santa Clara   +6
Cal Poly SLO   +8
New Mexico St   +4

NBA

Miami   +1.5
Bulls   -2
Hornets   +8.5

NCAAF

Boise St   +7.5


 
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Posted: #12
great idea jimmy gonna follow and see whats going on
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by JimmyJet:

Monday Jan 4th, 2010

NCAAB

Cinn   -4   Loss
Drexel   +2.5   Win
ODU   -12   Win
Fairfield   +7   Loss
Loy Md   +6   Loss
Rider   +2.5   Win
Davidson   -10.5   Win
Morehead St   -13   Loss
Utah St   +2   Loss
Murray St   -20.5   Win
Middle Tenn St   +18.5   Loss
Santa Clara   +6   Loss
Cal Poly SLO   +8   Win
New Mexico St   +4   Loss

NBA

Miami   +1.5   Win
Bulls   -2   Loss
Hornets   +8.5   Win

NCAAF

Boise St   +7.5   Win


 
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Posted: #14
Results to date show little advantage for this strategy

NFL   5-2
NBA  8-5
NCAAF  4-5
NCAAB  35-41

Observations....sample too small to be significant
Pro sports seem to be better place to use this strategy as tool in your handicapping.
 
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Posted: #15
But they do that just to balance the books, they don't know who is going to win the game.  Don't they try to get each game as close to 50/50 so they don't lose their shirts and still collect the vig?  It's basically teams that are opposite of public faves will get this low vig.  So your just fading the public faves. Only problem is sometimes the public faves are right.  So even if you pay less vig you still lost your bet.
 
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Posted: #16

Matchbook doesn't charge vigorish.  It only charges a small commission.  They don't care who wins because their own money is never at stake.  I guess when you are talking about Matchbook you are talking about the consensus odds that are represented by the current offers.

I'm trying to understand the strategy.  In this week's playoff game, Cincinnati -2.5 is offered at -106.  NY +2.5 is offered at +105. 

The strategy is that based on this Cincinnati -2.5 is the better bet....

Is that correct?

 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by tallguyindc:

Matchbook doesn't charge vigorish.  It only charges a small commission.  They don't care who wins because their own money is never at stake.  I guess when you are talking about Matchbook you are talking about the consensus odds that are represented by the current offers.

I'm trying to understand the strategy.  In this week's playoff game, Cincinnati -2.5 is offered at -106.  NY +2.5 is offered at +105. 

The strategy is that based on this Cincinnati -2.5 is the better bet....

Is that correct?



Yes, that is the assumption. I would say though that this test of that strategy shows little value in betting based on this factor. The lines are changing frequently and the juice is also changing so this snapshot of when I monitor the lines seems to have little relevance to the actual results.

In my own betting, where I use Bodog, have noticed but not tracked that the right side is often the side with the highest juice. The side that you would have to pay -115 to -135 to bet. I hesitate to place a bet where am getting +105 because seems those bets always lose. I find myself checking the juice before placing my bets and sometimes just passing when it seems they want my bet too much by offering +105....does that make sense to anyone else? Has anyone tracked this on a consistent basis?
 
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Posted: #18
Timing may be the key. When do the majority of the public place their bets and would the public, casual bettors be swayed by lower juice to choose the wrong side? Or is as Hectar notes is this the bookmakers just trying to even their books to make their profit on the juice? Interesting topic for discussion. Have read threads where they watch this factor very closely but have not seen a solid record that shows which way to use this consistently for porfit.
 
 
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