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NCAA Spread Mathematical and Statistical System

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
Guys, I have been messing around with a system the past couple days that I think is absolutely amazing. I am not here to just bullshit you, if you think I am then leave right now. 

If you stayed, thank you, I promise you will reap the benefits from me. I call my system STIKHED (its an acronym for some of the data that goes into it)

I won't give away how I come up with my plays, or what goes into it but I will say this :

1. Seven sets of data go into every single game 
2. The games have to meet two parameters I have created

The past three days the games that have met these parameters have gone

25-10
71.4%


 
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Posted: #2
I only advise playing these games for right now, but I have also created a fade alert system from STIKHED as well and these games have gone in the last 3 days...

57-24-3
70.4%

Yeah my system is different than most. I don't believe in playing only one or two games a night. Personally I think it's bull. You have to play as many games as you are confident in winning over a certain percentage. If it means only playing a standard 3% on each game, then so be it, but this is how you will make money in the long run boys. 

I'll post my plays in here for the near future. Tail at your own rate, but those numbers are 100% true. 
 
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Posted: #3
i'm interested, post your plays when you get a chance
 
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Posted: #4
Monday

UAB -11
Georgia Southern +6.5
Pittsburgh -8
 
Prospect
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Posted: #5
BOL
 
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Posted: #6
Tonight Record   2-1

UAB -14 
Pitt -8 
Ga. Southern +6.5 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #7
Freaky, does your system only work on NCAA or can it be used for the NBA as well?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #8
Hmm.. its should work just as well in the NBA, it might take me a day or two to write the program for the NBA, but it would involve the same information that goes into the NBA so yeah it should work too.
 
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Posted: #9
Tuesday's StikHed Plays

South Florida -6 (vs.DePaul)
Toledo -4 (vs. Central Michigan)
Vanderbilt pk (vs. Tennessee)
Ball St. +2.5 (vs. Western Michigan)
Evansville +2 (Creighton)

Leans On
Duke -19.5 (vs. NC State)
Air Force +5.5 (@Colorado St.
 
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Posted: #10
Lock2gteven, My system will work for the NBA matter of fact, but I need approxiatmely one weeks data before I make any plays. If I can find data from the past week that goes into the system, maybe I can have the plays up for tomorrow, if not then sometime next week I'll start posting the NBA as well.
 
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Posted: #11
Do you have a software or a spreadsheet for this? what data do you use? Would you mind sharing the information with us.
 
Thanks in advanced!
 
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Posted: #12
I use a few different spreadsheets.. I would rather not give away my system, but Ill see if I can upload anything that would prove some stuff..
 
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Posted: #13
I smell a tout freakyfresh, don't share your stuff in here if you want to keep from everyone theres another section in here called lets pay for all the information.
GET A LIFE

           use a few different spreadsheets.. I would rather not give away my system, but Ill see if I can upload anything that would prove some stuff..

Anyone smell a rat?
I do
 
Prospect
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Posted: #14
Go ahead dude, think what you want, sorry for trying to help out. I have no intentions of tout whatsoever. Why would anyone give up something they have developed on their own that is known to work? That sounds stupid to me. Someone takes, it starts their own touting with it then you look like an idiot. Nothing you can do though. If you want to bash me, go ahead, I'll keep posting, keep giving what I think will work.
 
Sorry I do realize that this is a systems and strategies board, but I didn't know that you meant you had to share it or you get critized. But if that's what it is meant for then I'll respect it and just post my plays in College Basketball Formus and NBA Forums in the future.
 
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Posted: #15

Freaky

  It's true CB and NBA Forums are the place for posts without info but don't overlook the value of giving something away that you have developed. Systems  & Strategies is like Wiki-economics or Linux, you spend a lot of brainpower and time on your idea and then you publish it here where someone else can take it and develop it further and then brings it back where it can be used and further improved. You gain by having your idea developed to its ultimate. If you keep it close to you it will never see its full capabilities. We all gain by adding to it.    

 Yes, this is radical thinking for an information site, but it helps to weed out the touts and helps to optimise the proposed systems. We would like it if you contributed but this unique site is defended by calling to attention potential touts, frauds and bullshit artists. That defense will be severe but it does effectively keep it valuable to those that see its value. Think like a scientist: the data have to be known, the formulae short, clean and sweet like a good computer program, and the results repeatable. Once the system has been tested to your satisfaction, go forward, take a chance, and use your superior money management skills to make your first mil.

Good luck to you.

 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by dabar:

Freaky

  It's true CB and NBA Forums are the place for posts without info but don't overlook the value of giving something away that you have developed. Systems  & Strategies is like Wiki-economics or Linux, you spend a lot of brainpower and time on your idea and then you publish it here where someone else can take it and develop it further and then brings it back where it can be used and further improved. You gain by having your idea developed to its ultimate. If you keep it close to you it will never see its full capabilities. We all gain by adding to it.    

 Yes, this is radical thinking for an information site, but it helps to weed out the touts and helps to optimise the proposed systems. We would like it if you contributed but this unique site is defended by calling to attention potential touts, frauds and bullshit artists. That defense will be severe but it does effectively keep it valuable to those that see its value. Think like a scientist: the data have to be known, the formulae short, clean and sweet like a good computer program, and the results repeatable. Once the system has been tested to your satisfaction, go forward, take a chance, and use your superior money management skills to make your first mil.

Good luck to you.

 
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Posted: #17
then don't even post shut up and stay out or get out. Oh thats right you graduated from Yale my fault.


 
Prospect
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Posted: #18
Dude your getting to mad over this. It's all cool no need for that.

Here it is then...

1. Take eight different scores predictions for each game including Vegas's Line.
2. Run a normal distribution confidence interval for each of the predictions with the mean as the line for the game. (Vegas's confidence will always be 50%.)
3. Take a weighted mean average of those confidence intervals based on how accurate each prediction indicator has been over the past month. 12.5% would be the average weight for each score indicator, but I adjusted my weights on standard deviations. 
4. Set parameters by the final confidence level once all finished and the standard deviation of all the predictions.

Happy?



 
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Posted: #19
When taking the intervals you must use a standard deviation, you could take the average deviation based on the history of the predictor but I use a about 11.5
 
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Posted: #20
Yeah that sounds like a lot of work. I like the idea of tailing or following for now. Maybe a download later on. Just keep up the tracking to see how you do all season. I am interested to see how you do 

BOL!
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by FreakyFresh:

Tuesday's StikHed Plays

South Florida -6 (vs.DePaul)
Toledo -4 (vs. Central Michigan)
Vanderbilt pk (vs. Tennessee)
Ball St. +2.5 (vs. Western Michigan)
Evansville +2 (Creighton)

Leans On
Duke -19.5 (vs. NC State)
Air Force +5.5 (@Colorado St.

 

2-1 with 2 to play....

 

I really like it so far...

 
Prospect
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Posted: #22
Excellent Freak
 
1-Using eight predictors is optimal. Others have tried with 3 ( not enough ) and with 90 to 100 ( redundant, misleading, reverse indicators etc..)
 
2-Your accuracy may be excellent at first then it could fall off. Deviations will increase, not for all eight but enough to lower your confidence level.
 
3-For 2 to 6 weeks you may be fortunate enough to catch a trend and post an excellent record. Then the weighting of some other predictors will become paramount and some of the ones you have will be so lightly weighted as to be meaningless. You will go through a period where we will fade you. Why? Because the games are being constantly adjusted and the predictors cannot incorporate all the subjective and objective data nor can you properly ( accurately ) account for the changes in weighting. For example: predictors from Dec and Jan. will not indicate when a losing ( bottom of standings) team decides to give up in Feb. Therefore all predictors having to do with dog bets and home  advantages mean nothing to them. This means you have to be a little bit of a handicapper and add it to your formula. And handicapping is more art than math.
 I hope this adds to your success. Some guys play another's posts for a short happy period and then fade them to make money. Some formulas are so bad that fading them from day one makes you money.
Best of luck. We appreciate your hard work.
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by expertcapper:

I smell a tout freakyfresh, don't share your stuff in here if you want to keep from everyone theres another section in here called lets pay for all the information.
GET A LIFE

           use a few different spreadsheets.. I would rather not give away my system, but Ill see if I can upload anything that would prove some stuff..

Anyone smell a rat?
I do

 

am I sensing expert getting a little jealous on the New freakyfresh........

 

let the man show us his plays in his own thread...

 

you, expert, go post in yours....

....leave him alone....

 
Prospect
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Posted: #24
Damn, that Drexel line dropped from 7.5 when I posted to 6.5 at game time, which would have made it a play. I just didn't have time to get another look at the lines.

Unless Vandy makes a miracle comeback 3-2 for the night. I'll take it. 60% is darn good. Just have to keep it up now. 

dabar. Your insight is excellent. Thanks very much for it. Your right on when you say it is an art more than math. But I don't have enough data to make it an art. I'll have to pick up on some tendencies if I catch any. 

Really ticked I didn't post Drexel, but whatev. So far since posting 5-3  62.5%
 
 
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Posted: #25
I also want to say that I am really not trying to tout. That was outrageous, all I want to do is test. Best place to do so. Figure I would make it public. If it starts to do mediocre then whatever, you can forget about it. If it starts to do well, then tail or fade em don't care, just trying to help us all out. Thanks guys.
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