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NCAA Basketball System

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Posted: #1
I searched around and didn't see this one posted.  If it is, my apologies.  

*Conference play only; Home team has to be the dog getting between 1-5.5 pts* --- Take the Home team and the pts.

I don't have the exact percentages, but since 1986, I believe this is right at 72-73%.  I got a hold of this system late last year (very late) and tested it out -- went 6-0-1.   Any number crunchers out there want to run the numbers and get an exact percentage? 


 
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Posted: #2
What you mean by conference play only?
 
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Posted: #3
Conference play -- for example,
 
If Georgia is at home against LSU, and they are underdogs getting between +1 & +5.5 pts, take UGA since this is an SEC Conference Game.
 
If Georgia is at home against Georgia Tech and getting pts, system won't work here as GT is an ACC team and not part of the conference play.
 
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Posted: #4
Are those stats ATS or SU? Either way thats pretty crazy
 
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Posted: #5
Oh nevermind, you said take the points lol
 
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Posted: #6
I can check the numbers but I don't have a data base to check with lines, covers doesn't have the lines for all the teams.
If any can post a link to a good data base I can run the numbers
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by novato:

I can check the numbers but I don't have a data base to check with lines, covers doesn't have the lines for all the teams.
If any can post a link to a good data base I can run the numbers

Just use -110 as the lines since it's average for spread betting
 
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Posted: #8
But how would you know if its a dog play betwen 1 and 5.5??
 
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Posted: #9
I don't mind running the numbers.  I would just need the database to do it, which I can't seem to find
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by whitakp:

I don't mind running the numbers.  I would just need the database to do it, which I can't seem to find

https://www.goldsheet.com/historic.php

Those are the lines for the last 15 years
 
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Posted: #11
In that link doesn't have all the teams
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by novato:

In that link doesn't have all the teams

Lines aren't made for every team and every game.
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Tomspeople:


Lines aren't made for every team and every game.

This answer my question. Thanks!
 
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Posted: #14

 Article I ran across on Statfox today..............


https://www.statfox.com/statfoxnews/news~articleid~4588.htm

I just summed it up basically


looks like someone has already been looking at these types of stats


Since 2004…..

Conference Play in College Basketball:

 

Big 12: Home Team

Favs        30-13 (69.8%) when laying between a pick & 2.5 points;

68-86 (44.2%) when laying between 7-17 pts

Dogs       40-29 (58%) when getting 3-10 pts

 


 
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Posted: #15

Big 10: Home Teams

Favs        99-69 (58.9%) when single digit

43.7% when laying 10+ pts at home,

Totals favor the UNDER at 61-36 – 62.9% when double digit home favs

When Spread is 14+ pts ----- totals cash on the under at 68.2%

 

 

Big East: Home Teams

Dogs of any pt spread – 43.7% ATS; Single Digit – 43.2%

Over wins 54.2% of the time

 

 


 
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Posted: #16

Sun Belt:

Home Dogs ATS 43-34 (59%)

When home team getting 3-6.5 pts, 22-9 (71%)

 

WAC:
42.8% home dogs covering; When home team laying 1-7 pts, Road team (dog) wins 68.4% of time at 26-12 ATS

Road Favs – 39-51 (43.3%) ---- **road teams giving less than 7 pts, 68.4%

 

SEC: Home Teams

22-12 (64.7%) – When Home dog is getting between a pick and 2.5 pts; SU is 19-15

21-21 (40.40%) When Home team getting between 3-7 pts as home dog – 18-34 SU record (34.6%)

 

 

MAC:

Home Favs ATS -- 157-111 (58.6%)

Teams that are pick to 2.5 pts favs – 28-30 ATS

Home Dogs – 47.6% ATS

 

 
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Posted: #17

Hawaii is 500 ATS at home since 2004

 

Side Notes of Teams that play very well at home since 2004:

Denver is 29-13 against the point spread at home the past four seasons, a 69% success rate. 

Weber State, 29-13

Southern Miss, 25-13, 65.8%,

Mississippi State, 35-20, 63.6%


 
 
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Posted: #18

Bradley, Tennessee, Wright State, and New Mexico, all above 60%. 

North Carolina, 39-18, 68.4%,

Duke, 35-23, 60.3%

Wisconsin is only 28-29 ATS in home lined games. .

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