NBA Totals system

I started using this system created by certain stats in the past game. I thought it would only work when both teams had exactly one day off between games, but after more looking, I noticed it works on every game (as long as it meet criteria). I didn't want to just start up a thread just on a small sample sized hot streak so I have waited until the sample size grew. I know earning trust from people to even look at your post you have to prove your picks are good. I have only a 135 game sample size but I am hitting 64%. You can check my totals picks in the contest part of covers. This percentage could even be higher but, after a slow start on my OVERS I had to tweek my OVERS criteria. Now I know this could just be a long hot streak although my wins are not that close and my losses are still a play or two away from a different out come. I just started use the same criteria to pick spread plays. I dont know how that will go. I also dont know how often I can post my picks do to other priorities. Oh well, just check out my contest selection history and keep an eye out for future posts if you are interested.

What is your system? (i.e. How do you pick your games?)

 

I would love to do some back-testing

It is a little hard to explain. It is a combination of fast break pts compared to total pts, Three point attenpts per fga (but only if 3pt % is over 30%), and total of off. reb, steals, and blocks.

Christmas system picks,

Bos

OKC

Por

Unders in OKC and POR games, all picks are subject to reasonable lines. A point or two off is not a no play factor but lets say the OKC total is under 200pts that is a unfair line. But anything over 205 is betable and would like to see it at 215pts. Hoping for GSW to be at least 202 at GSW.

I guess I shouldn't have put this in the systems catagory, because I don't plan on giving strangers my exact combination of what makes up my picks. It is all done without watching a game even though I do enjoy watching games. So it is a system, but if everyone gets a hold of it (IF IT WORKS), they can sell the plays or if enough people understand it books might change those lines to adjust.

I play NBA totals exclusively, it would be interesting to bounce off some ideas.. Base on historical data I try to forcast a fair value for each game and If the spread is way off than I fade it.