NBA Predictive Box Score System (Ratings, S.O.S., PPG)

As per request, I've built an NBA workbook that uses each teams Ratings, Schedule Strength, and Points Per Game in a formula to predict outcomes for each individual matchup.

The sheet is in BETA testing, but should serve as an excellent resource to handicap your games. The sample game on the Matchup Page is from Chicago @ Atlanta, December 9th, 2009.

Statistics are taken from basketball-reference, and you can easily copy and paste these statistics into the sheet for basically plug and play results.

Shameless plug:
I run actionreverse.com, and most of my work involves the NFL and NCAAF using the YPPT & HFA formula and system filters, which is the basis behind the NBA sheet. I have NFL and NCAAF matchup sheets available for free download, and will only be putting this NBA sheet up on Covers for the time being, until it is back tested with some solid proven advantages. Let me know how you guys use it, and use this thread to track how you're playing it also if you choose.

The sheet is available here: NBA Matchup Analysis Workbook

Looks great, Can't find about S.O.S and Ratings on basketball-reference, i guess S.O.S in your spreadsheet won't change but where should i look for Ratings? Thanks

S.O.S. and Ratings can be found here:
https://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin.htm
Not sure how often the NBA is updated (probably everyday) but that's where they're available.

using stats to pick winners is something always wanted to do but what's your goal of running your website. not sure what your intend is.

I gave it a try to confirm 3 leans that i had

Predicitve score : ATL 106,88 TOR 100,78       Pick : ATL -3,5
                           
                         GSW 105,23  CHI 102,98      Pick : GSW +5
                       
                         OKC 102,07  MEM 97,9        Pick : OKC + 2

I sent you a friend request and signed up to your site

 

gltu

Friend reques sent again

thanks

 

Hey Action

Thanks for sharing your work.  One quick question, underneath the home and awat team input fields there are two grey line next to each other.  You example has inputs for atlanta and chicago two times but with different inputs.  What values go into these fields?

thanks again

I've actually updated the sheet, this one just using the team statistics. (The player statistics in the first sheet were not fully implemented and it was just extra work)

The new sheet you simply update the Team Statistics page like the first sheet, get the Ratings and S.O.S. from the link provided above, and as far as the Matchup Page goes you only have to copy & paste stats for the Home Team & Away Team, and then insert the ratings in the boxes. Try the new sheet as I'm not exactly sure about the old sheet.

Matchup Sheet Download

Thanks Action!

quick stupid question - in the input fields for defense - do you use the data from the team opponents statistics?

I capped the LA game tonight at 102-92 is that correct?

thanks

Yep, "Team Statistics" for Offense, "Opponent Statistics" for Defense.

Let me know how you make out w/ the sheet as right now I will not be tracking it, but it would be nice for someone to post their sheet results and compare them to the final results like how I started.

Ok Action - these are the predictions for today 12/15

Suns105- SAS101

Cats 101 NYK 96

Cavs 105 Nets87

Port 103 Sac 96

LA 102 Bulls 92

Hou 101 Pistons 94

Miami 104 Raptors 100

 

Awesome work Action, yeah i was thinking the same thing about the player stats..that would be really a lot of work...i just about have the TAR system done on a sheet and also sergios ppg also on a sheet...just cleaning it up...its not as professional as your sheet...i can send you the systems if you want, as another tool for your arsenal...lmk...thanks again for your hard work...

hey i cannot open this in Microsoft Excel...is there anything that i am doing wrong? I would like to see how this work

results yesterday ATS   3 wins - 2 losses and 2 pushes

SU - 7-0

12/16 predictions - so far

Nets 92 Jazz 103

Wolves 96 Clipps 98

Hornets 98 Pistons 97

 

and the rest for 12/16

Grizz 96 Hawks 109

Cats 96 Pacers 95

Raptors 97 Magic109

Cavs 101 Sixers 95

Lakers 101 Bucks 97

Mavs 97 Thunder 98

Rockets 100 Nuggets 105

Spurs 107 Warriors 102

Wizards 99 Kings 105

Hey Action, got a question, how much of an impact does team rating and sos play into the predictive score...can you explain the factors of what they play into the predictive outcome.  thanks in advanced..

Tnx, AR, for this tool, and tnx, pdg893, for posting calculations - for some reason, I can't get it to work at my place.

So, for 16.12. it went 10-2 SU, with a few scores predicted almost to the point! I guess you got a pretty good starting point here, AR, when you find the time perhaps you could work on this some more.

Until then, good job!


P.S. Pdg893, I hope you continue posting these calculations.

results for 12/16

10-2 SU and 6-5-1 ATS

since starting on 12/15

17-2 SU 89.5% and 9-7-3 ATS 43.7%  I have not been tracking the total results but have noticed that the prediction is usually very close to the line for the total.  Action, did you say you have another spreadsheet for these calculations? I am wondering how to factor in travel, B2b games (with travel) and fatigue from long road trips into the prediction. 

  

Predictions for 12/17

Knicks 99 Chicago 100  line chicago -3 203

Magic 101 Miami 97 line magic -4 200

Phoenix 94 Portland 95 line portland -2 202.5

I have PHO 100 POR 101 for this game ... same results for first 2 games, i dont know whats wrong ... but thought it could be useful to know if plan going for the under ....

I already went OVER for 4 units, so I'm kinda hoping you'll be closer to the actual scoreline.

Either way, thanks you both for sharing the predictions with us, guys. However, all of these games appear to close to call. Even SU.