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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    MLB Underdog double up system

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    STEVEPERRY
    BigA524
    coolfront
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    STEVEPERRY
    STEVEPERRY
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    Posted: Oct. 22, 2008 - 12:07 AM ET #76

    Next year
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    Next year
     
    BigA524
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    Posted: Jan. 21, 2009 - 7:30 PM ET #77

    Well Here it is. I did this on wordpad so it wont let me copy/paste the wins/losses i used bold for. If someone has an idea on how to post it here or wants to try I'll send you the file. Overall the record wasnt good but it was in the plus. There was some tinkering with the system but I think its posted in this thread when I did it cause I didnt write in my wordpad part.

    Just another note these records are not doubling up after losses. I wanted to see what happpened just straight up first. Next update not sure when will be using the double up way. Stay tuned!

    If someone wants to try to figure out first let me know and I'll email you the file.

    Week1 - 12-8 (+5.85)
    Week2 - 8-10 (+.00) Overall- 20-18 +5.85
    Week3 - 9-7 (+3.92) Overall 29-25 +9.77
    Week4 - 18-13 (+8.23) Overall 47-38 +18.00
    Week5 - 13-8 (+6.93) Overall 60-46 +24.93
    Week6 - 14-17  (-.46) Overall 74-63 +24.47
    Week7 - 14-17 (-.39) Overall 88-80 +24.08
    Week8 - 7-9 (-.66) Overall 95-89 +23.42
    Week9 - 9-16 (-4.82) Overall 104-105 +18.60
    Week10 - 13-9 (+5.30) Overall 117-114 +23.90
    Week11 - 8-17 (-7.12) Overall 125-131 +16.78
    Week12 - 10-13 (-1.46) Overall 135-144 +15.32
    Week13 - 10-6 (+7.02) Overall 145-150 +22.34
    Week14 - 6-19 (-11.40) Overall 151-169 +10.94
    Week15 - 7-5 (+3.49) Overall 158-174 +14.43
    Week16 - 1-2 (-.68) Overall 159-176 +13.75 *AllStar Week
    Week17 - 8-7 (+1.95) Overall 167-183 +15.70
    Week18 - 7-6 (+1.73) Overall 174-189 +17.43
    Week19 - 6-13 (-5.55) Overall 180-202 +11.88
    Week20 - 8-7 (+3.04) Overall 188-209 +14.92
    Week21 - 5-6 (-.49) Overall 193-215 +14.43
    Week22 - 5-7 (-1.02) Overall 198-222 +13.41
    Week23 - 11-7 (+6.20) Overall 209-229 +19.61
    Week24 - 9-9 (+1.23) Overall 218-238 +20.84
    Week25 - 3-9 (-5.64) Overall 221-247 +15.20
    Week26 - 10-9 (+2.73) Overall 231-256 +17.93


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    Well Here it is. I did this on wordpad so it wont let me copy/paste the wins/losses i used bold for. If someone has an idea on how to post it here or wants to try I'll send you the file. Overall the record wasnt good but it was in the plus. There was some tinkering with the system but I think its posted in this thread when I did it cause I didnt write in my wordpad part.

    Just another note these records are not doubling up after losses. I wanted to see what happpened just straight up first. Next update not sure when will be using the double up way. Stay tuned!

    If someone wants to try to figure out first let me know and I'll email you the file.

    Week1 - 12-8 (+5.85)
    Week2 - 8-10 (+.00) Overall- 20-18 +5.85
    Week3 - 9-7 (+3.92) Overall 29-25 +9.77
    Week4 - 18-13 (+8.23) Overall 47-38 +18.00
    Week5 - 13-8 (+6.93) Overall 60-46 +24.93
    Week6 - 14-17  (-.46) Overall 74-63 +24.47
    Week7 - 14-17 (-.39) Overall 88-80 +24.08
    Week8 - 7-9 (-.66) Overall 95-89 +23.42
    Week9 - 9-16 (-4.82) Overall 104-105 +18.60
    Week10 - 13-9 (+5.30) Overall 117-114 +23.90
    Week11 - 8-17 (-7.12) Overall 125-131 +16.78
    Week12 - 10-13 (-1.46) Overall 135-144 +15.32
    Week13 - 10-6 (+7.02) Overall 145-150 +22.34
    Week14 - 6-19 (-11.40) Overall 151-169 +10.94
    Week15 - 7-5 (+3.49) Overall 158-174 +14.43
    Week16 - 1-2 (-.68) Overall 159-176 +13.75 *AllStar Week
    Week17 - 8-7 (+1.95) Overall 167-183 +15.70
    Week18 - 7-6 (+1.73) Overall 174-189 +17.43
    Week19 - 6-13 (-5.55) Overall 180-202 +11.88
    Week20 - 8-7 (+3.04) Overall 188-209 +14.92
    Week21 - 5-6 (-.49) Overall 193-215 +14.43
    Week22 - 5-7 (-1.02) Overall 198-222 +13.41
    Week23 - 11-7 (+6.20) Overall 209-229 +19.61
    Week24 - 9-9 (+1.23) Overall 218-238 +20.84
    Week25 - 3-9 (-5.64) Overall 221-247 +15.20
    Week26 - 10-9 (+2.73) Overall 231-256 +17.93


     
    BigA524
    BigA524
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    Posted: Mar. 19, 2009 - 7:59 PM ET #78

    another update. I was doing the numbers with the double up theory and it was up 40 units after week 8. It failed with week 9 and it actually went into the red. gotta figure out on how to minimize losses.
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    another update. I was doing the numbers with the double up theory and it was up 40 units after week 8. It failed with week 9 and it actually went into the red. gotta figure out on how to minimize losses.
     
    coolfront
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    Posted: Mar. 19, 2009 - 10:11 PM ET #79

    Hey BigA, interesting strategy. I was just wondering what ranking you used to find the top 20 pitchers?
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    Hey BigA, interesting strategy. I was just wondering what ranking you used to find the top 20 pitchers?
     
    BigA524
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    Posted: Mar. 20, 2009 - 6:06 PM ET #80

    Sagarins Top 20 pitchers from usatoday
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    Sagarins Top 20 pitchers from usatoday
     
    PuckHog
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    Posted: Mar. 22, 2009 - 11:18 PM ET #81

    BigA...are you going to post some plays when the season starts?
     
    much appreciated 
     
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    BigA...are you going to post some plays when the season starts?
     
    much appreciated 
     
     
    coolfront
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    Posted: Apr. 5, 2009 - 7:25 PM ET #82

    Do the Braves fit the system tonight?
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    Do the Braves fit the system tonight?
     
    bl0wnaway
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    Posted: Apr. 8, 2009 - 3:44 PM ET #83

    I'm gonna help try and revive this thread.  The system sounds pretty no-brainer and a + units every week is encouraging from 2008.  Just for clarification, there was no chase strategy used here, just play dogs between +120 and +150 with the pitching, win/loss streak stipulations attached right?

    I'm anti-chase systems for personal reasons

    I'm going to just play all of the dogs between +120 and +150 until we get the 2009 season's feet under us and start 'capping.

    Tonight:  (home team bold)  Risking 3 to win 4.413

    Orioles +143
    Rays +135
    Pirates +146

    I'll do my best to keep track and post both Home and Away records!
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    I'm gonna help try and revive this thread.  The system sounds pretty no-brainer and a + units every week is encouraging from 2008.  Just for clarification, there was no chase strategy used here, just play dogs between +120 and +150 with the pitching, win/loss streak stipulations attached right?

    I'm anti-chase systems for personal reasons

    I'm going to just play all of the dogs between +120 and +150 until we get the 2009 season's feet under us and start 'capping.

    Tonight:  (home team bold)  Risking 3 to win 4.413

    Orioles +143
    Rays +135
    Pirates +146

    I'll do my best to keep track and post both Home and Away records!
     
    bl0wnaway
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    Posted: Apr. 8, 2009 - 3:46 PM ET #84

    These links should help further down the road.

    https://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/alp08.htm

    https://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nlp08.htm
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    These links should help further down the road.

    https://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/alp08.htm

    https://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nlp08.htm
     
    elithepunk
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    Posted: Apr. 8, 2009 - 3:54 PM ET #85

    Sounds good. BOL .
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    Sounds good. BOL .
     
    bl0wnaway
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    Posted: Apr. 8, 2009 - 4:09 PM ET #86

      Thanks Eli.

    I just reread and I found out when you have a losing day you should double up all of your plays the next day until you have a + day.  I'm willing to give it a shot anyways after last year's record.

    Here are the guidelines for BigA from last year.

    1)  Play all dogs between +120 and +150
    2)  Eliminate dogs on a 3 game losing streak and/or favorite on 3 game winning streak.
    3)  Eliminate dog when facing favorite starting pitcher in Top 30.
    4)  Play dog below +120 If dogs Starter is in Top 20.
    5)  Play dog below +120 if dog starter rated higher the fav when rules 3-4 dont apply.
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      Thanks Eli.

    I just reread and I found out when you have a losing day you should double up all of your plays the next day until you have a + day.  I'm willing to give it a shot anyways after last year's record.

    Here are the guidelines for BigA from last year.

    1)  Play all dogs between +120 and +150
    2)  Eliminate dogs on a 3 game losing streak and/or favorite on 3 game winning streak.
    3)  Eliminate dog when facing favorite starting pitcher in Top 30.
    4)  Play dog below +120 If dogs Starter is in Top 20.
    5)  Play dog below +120 if dog starter rated higher the fav when rules 3-4 dont apply.
     
    bl0wnaway
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    Posted: Apr. 8, 2009 - 4:22 PM ET #87

    Adding:
    Giants +102 (R. Johnson)
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    Adding:
    Giants +102 (R. Johnson)
     
    Stake24
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    Posted: Apr. 8, 2009 - 8:45 PM ET #88

    looking good so far.
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    looking good so far.
     
    bl0wnaway
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2009 - 9:20 AM ET #89

    3-1 last night +4.24 units

    Yanks and Red Sox opponents would be plays tonight but Burnett and Matsuzaka on the mound so I'm expecting the Orioles and Rays to be in trouble tonight! 

    Plays:
    Kansas City +135
    San Diego +130
    Cleveland +105 (Pavano)

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    3-1 last night +4.24 units

    Yanks and Red Sox opponents would be plays tonight but Burnett and Matsuzaka on the mound so I'm expecting the Orioles and Rays to be in trouble tonight! 

    Plays:
    Kansas City +135
    San Diego +130
    Cleveland +105 (Pavano)

     
    powerade
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2009 - 11:01 AM ET #90

    yeah don't chase it....just play them straight....you will make tons of cash
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    yeah don't chase it....just play them straight....you will make tons of cash
     
    powerade
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2009 - 11:04 AM ET #91

    BLOWNAWAY.....
       no....count those 2 games and play them.....
     
    if your going to follow a system you can't single games out just cuz what you think.....when they both win you won't be happy you didn't play them
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    BLOWNAWAY.....
       no....count those 2 games and play them.....
     
    if your going to follow a system you can't single games out just cuz what you think.....when they both win you won't be happy you didn't play them
     
    bl0wnaway
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2009 - 12:15 PM ET #92

    Quote Originally Posted by powerade:

    BLOWNAWAY.....
       no....count those 2 games and play them.....
     
    if your going to follow a system you can't single games out just cuz what you think.....when they both win you won't be happy you didn't play them




    Appreciate the advice my man.  I will do this for the first month or so of the season.  I was thinking about adding in another rule.

    6)  Only play teams with records of .400 or better

    This has saved me lots of agony with other systems...any thoughts from Baseball gurus?

    Powerade - No chase?  I wish BigA had stats from the previous seasons where the double up strategy wasn't used.  Thanks for the advice!
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    Quote Originally Posted by powerade:

    BLOWNAWAY.....
       no....count those 2 games and play them.....
     
    if your going to follow a system you can't single games out just cuz what you think.....when they both win you won't be happy you didn't play them




    Appreciate the advice my man.  I will do this for the first month or so of the season.  I was thinking about adding in another rule.

    6)  Only play teams with records of .400 or better

    This has saved me lots of agony with other systems...any thoughts from Baseball gurus?

    Powerade - No chase?  I wish BigA had stats from the previous seasons where the double up strategy wasn't used.  Thanks for the advice!
     
    elithepunk
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2009 - 12:22 PM ET #93

    bl0wnaway - If you don't feel comfortable with some of the plays that fit your system, just add a quick little note but I have to agree with powerade, all plays should be counted and also, rules should be kept at a strict minimum. Try to maximize your chances right now instead of adding a new rule every week.

    If you have the numbers to back it, no chasing would be great but if you are not sure , keep track of both and analyzing both strategies throughout your plays should provide enough info as to what is the most effective.

    BOL
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    bl0wnaway - If you don't feel comfortable with some of the plays that fit your system, just add a quick little note but I have to agree with powerade, all plays should be counted and also, rules should be kept at a strict minimum. Try to maximize your chances right now instead of adding a new rule every week.

    If you have the numbers to back it, no chasing would be great but if you are not sure , keep track of both and analyzing both strategies throughout your plays should provide enough info as to what is the most effective.

    BOL
     
    bl0wnaway
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2009 - 12:25 PM ET #94

    Thanks fellas.  I'm adding:

    Rays +137

    Yanks line has gone WAYYYY up on sportsbook.com so I missed out and it doesn't qualify for the system now.
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    Thanks fellas.  I'm adding:

    Rays +137

    Yanks line has gone WAYYYY up on sportsbook.com so I missed out and it doesn't qualify for the system now.
     
    Lippsman
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2009 - 12:36 PM ET #95

    You have to stick with your filters. When you start adding filters you will find out you are filtering out more wins than losses.
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    You have to stick with your filters. When you start adding filters you will find out you are filtering out more wins than losses.
     
    Lippsman
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2009 - 12:39 PM ET #96

    Also you gotta get an account at matchbook.  It will save you a good bit of money.
     
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    Also you gotta get an account at matchbook.  It will save you a good bit of money.
     
     
    bl0wnaway
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2009 - 12:46 PM ET #97

    Quote Originally Posted by Lippsman:

    Also you gotta get an account at matchbook.  It will save you a good bit of money.
     


      Thanks for the heads up!  Better dog odds?  You aware of any deposit bonus's there?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lippsman:

    Also you gotta get an account at matchbook.  It will save you a good bit of money.
     


      Thanks for the heads up!  Better dog odds?  You aware of any deposit bonus's there?
     
    Lippsman
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2009 - 12:54 PM ET #98

    Quote Originally Posted by bl0wnaway:



      Thanks for the heads up!  Better dog odds?  You aware of any deposit bonus's there?

    Right now you can get TB at +141.  Don't worry about bouns'.  Your better books don't give out bonus most of the time. Or very small ones.  The reason you get these huge bouns' at most books is that it will take a very long time to ever get any money out of there.

    Matchbook is not really a book, it's a betting exchange.  Low commissions.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bl0wnaway:



      Thanks for the heads up!  Better dog odds?  You aware of any deposit bonus's there?

    Right now you can get TB at +141.  Don't worry about bouns'.  Your better books don't give out bonus most of the time. Or very small ones.  The reason you get these huge bouns' at most books is that it will take a very long time to ever get any money out of there.

    Matchbook is not really a book, it's a betting exchange.  Low commissions.

     
    powerade
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2009 - 12:59 PM ET #99

    Agreed with Lipps.....
     
     
    Blown.....I wouldn't chase.....chasing always equals bad things....
      look at BigA's stats above.....for the season without chasing the system won about +18 units.....he said with chasing it was killing it but went into the negative during week 9
     
    not sure where it went from there but profiting 18 units on the season is pretty nice....
     
    I would turn around and bet like 3 units a game.....
      18 x 3 = 54 units on the season.....mmmm sounds sexy
     
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    Agreed with Lipps.....
     
     
    Blown.....I wouldn't chase.....chasing always equals bad things....
      look at BigA's stats above.....for the season without chasing the system won about +18 units.....he said with chasing it was killing it but went into the negative during week 9
     
    not sure where it went from there but profiting 18 units on the season is pretty nice....
     
    I would turn around and bet like 3 units a game.....
      18 x 3 = 54 units on the season.....mmmm sounds sexy
     
     
     
    bl0wnaway
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2009 - 1:09 PM ET #100

    Quote Originally Posted by powerade:

    Agreed with Lipps.....
     
     
    Blown.....I wouldn't chase.....chasing always equals bad things....
      look at BigA's stats above.....for the season without chasing the system won about +18 units.....he said with chasing it was killing it but went into the negative during week 9
     
    not sure where it went from there but profiting 18 units on the season is pretty nice....
     
    I would turn around and bet like 3 units a game.....
      18 x 3 = 54 units on the season.....mmmm sounds sexy
     


    Yeah at first that's what I thought he did (no chase).  Upon 2nd glance he doubled his bets when he had a losing day...which sounds like a chase to me!  If there are equal number of wins and losses, then the system is profitable so the chase isn't necessary and I agree with you Powerade!

    Signing up at Matchbook now and good luck with MLB '09 guys!
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    Quote Originally Posted by powerade:

    Agreed with Lipps.....
     
     
    Blown.....I wouldn't chase.....chasing always equals bad things....
      look at BigA's stats above.....for the season without chasing the system won about +18 units.....he said with chasing it was killing it but went into the negative during week 9
     
    not sure where it went from there but profiting 18 units on the season is pretty nice....
     
    I would turn around and bet like 3 units a game.....
      18 x 3 = 54 units on the season.....mmmm sounds sexy
     


    Yeah at first that's what I thought he did (no chase).  Upon 2nd glance he doubled his bets when he had a losing day...which sounds like a chase to me!  If there are equal number of wins and losses, then the system is profitable so the chase isn't necessary and I agree with you Powerade!

    Signing up at Matchbook now and good luck with MLB '09 guys!
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