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MLB Prediction Formula 2.0

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Prospect
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Joined: Jan, 2012
Posts: 120
Posted: #1
This is the original attempt at designing a formula to predict winners:


It ended up having really good days and really bad days. It ended up hitting around 50%.

After a few weeks of tracking and adjusting the formulas a bit, I think I found a promising system.

This is the results from Saturday (first day of this new system) until yesterday.

Saturday: 5-2 +2.54u
Sunday: 4-1 +3.0u
Monday: 4-2 +1.86u    
Tuesday: 7-2 +3.65u
Wednesday: 6-3 +2.15u

Total: 26-10 +13.2u


Seems like everytime I started posting the picks on here after what seemed like a promising system it ended up bombing...but hopefully that was just some bad luck lol.

I'll start fresh with the tracking and unit gains/losses.

I'll be posting the plays in the next hour or so. 

BOL everyone.
 
Prospect
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Posts: 120
Posted: #2
I'm really not liking today's games. The estimated runs seem to be really close and some games could be a toss up.

Today's Plays:

Tigers
Twins
Reds
Nationals

Note: there should be more plays with the late games tonight. I'll post them once I get the prediction. 


**I will not be putting money on these games as of this moment. I want to track it until Saturday to see a full week's results.



 
Prospect
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Posted: #3
Adding: 

Mariners
 
Prospect
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Posted: #4
Adding:

Marlins
 
Prospect
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Posted: #5
Adding:

Red Sox
 
Prospect
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Posted: #6
Adding:

Padres
 
Prospect
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Posted: #7
Summary of Today's Games:

Tigers +100
Twins -100
Reds +100
Nationals -134
Mariners  +100
Marlins -119
Red Sox
Padres


-0.53u so far today. 2 plays still pending.

Like I said, I didn't feel too confident about today's plays. The estimated runs were pretty close and it was 50/50. Hopefully Sox and Padres win to end the night with a profit. 
 
Prospect
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Posts: 120
Posted: #8
Today has a rough start but it ended up a positive night. I'm going to continue tracking the results here and I will start putting money on the games most likely on Saturday or Sunday.

Today's Results:

Tigers +100
Twins-100
Reds+100
Nationals -134
Mariners +100
Marlins -119
Red Sox +100
Padres +100

5-3   +1.47u


31-13     70.45%      +14.67u 
 
Veteran
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Posts: 1150
Posted: #9
Good work Marko!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #10
Thanks Degen

Today's Plays:

Tigers 
Red Sox
Pirates 

This system requires lineups in order to do its calculations so I can't post plays until the lineups are submitted. There will probably be a lot more plays than this. 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #11
Adding:

Nationals
Rays
 
Veteran
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Posts: 2179
Posted: #12
 
Prospect
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Posted: #13
Adding:

Royals
 
Prospect
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Posts: 253
Posted: #14
Good luck Marko
 
Prospect
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Posts: 120
Posted: #15
Thanks for the support everyone.

Adding:

Cardinals 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #16
Today's Games so far:

D'Backs
Red Sox
Rays
Tigers
Royals
Cardinals
Nationals
Reds
Pirates 


I still need 2 more lineups for the late games tonight so there could possibly be 2 more plays tonight. 
 
Rookie
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Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 833
Posted: #17
GL
 
Prospect
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Posts: 120
Posted: #18
Adding last play:

Yankees
 
Prospect
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Posted: #19
Not happy with yesterday's results. The record was 6-4 but the gain was only 0.07u with the high juice. 

Yesterday's results:

D'Backs +100
Red Sox -177
Rays +100
Tigers +100
Royals -143
Cardinals +100
Nationals -145
Reds +100
Pirates +100
Yankees -128

6-4 +0.07u

Since yesterday: 11-7 +1.54u

Since the start of the system:

37-17   68.50%  +14.74

I'll post today's plays hopefully by 1 pm.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #20
Today's first play:

Dodgers
 
Veteran
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Posted: #21
Marko - can you make sure to post the plays today - I'm not by my PC so I can't run the numbers myself
 
Prospect
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Posted: #22
Adding:

Rangers
White Sox
 
Prospect
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Posted: #23
Degen, I'll be posting them everyday. You don't have to worry about running it yourself. 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #24
Adding:

Reds


Picks so far today:

Dodgers
Rangers
White Sox
Reds
 
 
Prospect
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Posts: 120
Posted: #25
Adding:

Red Sox
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