Posted:
#26
v2.0 Plays
YTD: 9-4 69% +4.54u
rockies 5.2
phillies 10.9
dodgers 5.6
athletics 3.9
rays 4.0
nationals 5.5
twins 3.5
pirates 7.1
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MLB Prediction Formula
Posted:
#29
Yea I used the closing lines on Covers. If the juice is really high though i usually use RL -1 which I record as -150 with the ML being -180 or greater.
This is all still preliminary and I wouldn't bet on anything yet. Degen and I are still doing a lot of adjusting and calibrating but I see it being up and running by Monday possibly.
I'd rather post all this prelimenary stuff and let everyone see what we are doing rather then set it all up and then start posting plays with no background information.
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Posted:
#31
Degen and I have been working out different subsystems with different adjustments to each of them
version 1.0.1 is what I have been posting each day.
version 1.0.2 uses career and season ERA for pitchers.
version 1.0.3 takes hot and cold pitchers into consideration
version 1.0 are plays that all the above systems agree on
version 1.1 is the same as 1.0 but uses a 1.0 run margin filter
version 1.2 are v1.0 plays with a 2.0 margin, we play RL on these.
All of these subsystems are repeated with v2. v2 takes home and away stats into consideration
v3 are plays that every single subsystem agree on. These will be higher unit plays.
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Posted:
#37
Quote Originally Posted by Stake24:
nice work Marko and Degen keep it up..... I recommend using jeff sagarin's pitcher data as he takes it to another level.... take a look
nice work Marko and Degen keep it up..... I recommend using jeff sagarin's pitcher data as he takes it to another level.... take a look
Thanks Stake - I have seen a bunch of systems that incorporate Jeff Sagarin's pitcher data - i.e. If the pitcher is on the list - scratch the play.
So I am defintely going to take a look and potentially incorporate it.
0
Posted:
#38
Great link Stake!
Alright, so Degen and I have worked out through the kinks and with the new system, it showed a considerable loss on friday which seemed to be a bad day overall but it's done really well on Saturday and Sunday. Playing the ML and RL those two days you'd be up 23 units.
It will continue being a work in progress with small adjustments and the addition of filters but it seems pretty solid at this point.
I know Degen has played the weekend plays and has made a profit. I'm going to start placing money on the picks today. I play ML and RL on each play but play whatever makes you comfortable if you decide to tail.
I'll start the record fresh from today, so YTD: 0-0 +0units
Today's Plays:
DODGERS
YANKEES
PHILLIES
STL
METS
ASTROS
RANGERS
RAYS
WHITE SOX
NATIONALS
There might be changes to the picks if pitchers change and whatnot so check back here later tonight, theyre all night games. I'll post the plays and any changes on my twitter as well.
@MarkoV12345
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Posted:
#39
Well you wouldnt scratch the play if they are on the list. I like his numbers because they incorporate more stats into the ERA, and the rickey and mob give you a more accurate assessment of power. I'm not really using any systems to bet I use his numbers compared to normal ERA to see who is over valued and under valued. But I like what I'm seeing with this prediction model.
On another note I was thinking the other day about maybe categorizing pitchers as knuckleballer, power thrower, 4 pitch, 5 pitch and so on and keeping track of how teams do against the different type of pitchers. But I wouldn't even know where to start there is just too much data for me...maybe you could automate it?
On another note I was thinking the other day about maybe categorizing pitchers as knuckleballer, power thrower, 4 pitch, 5 pitch and so on and keeping track of how teams do against the different type of pitchers. But I wouldn't even know where to start there is just too much data for me...maybe you could automate it?
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Posted:
#40
Quote Originally Posted by marko123:
Great link Stake!
Great link Stake!
Alright, so Degen and I have worked out through the kinks and with the new system, it showed a considerable loss on friday which seemed to be a bad day overall but it's done really well on Saturday and Sunday. Playing the ML and RL those two days you'd be up 23 units.
It will continue being a work in progress with small adjustments and the addition of filters but it seems pretty solid at this point.
I know Degen has played the weekend plays and has made a profit. I'm going to start placing money on the picks today. I play ML and RL on each play but play whatever makes you comfortable if you decide to tail.
I'll start the record fresh from today, so YTD: 0-0 +0units
Today's Plays:
DODGERS
YANKEES
PHILLIES
STL
METS
ASTROS
RANGERS
RAYS
WHITE SOX
NATIONALS
There might be changes to the picks if pitchers change and whatnot so check back here later tonight, theyre all night games. I'll post the plays and any changes on my twitter as well.
@MarkoV12345
MLB RUN ESTIMATOR
This spreadsheet is based off of Marko123 – MLB Prediction Formula thread. As Marko mentions - this is a work in progress in its early stages and still work being done by Marko to fine tune.
Features:
· Today’s matchups are updated from baseballpress.com when you click the “Update Lineup” button
· Pitching and Team stats needed to complete the Run Estimation formula are updated when you click on the “Update Pitching Stats” and “Update team Stats” Button
· NOTE: From time to time a new pitcher (say one called up from AAA) or if a pitcher goes to a different team – an error will occur when updating the pitching stats. You will need to update the Pitcher List with the proper links from baseball reference and re-run the query.
You can download from the link below:
https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B5dydT9Oe6Jbdkd1alJRRENtVnM
Also available in my spreadhseets and more thread.
0
Posted:
#42
Quote Originally Posted by Stake24:
Well you wouldnt scratch the play if they are on the list. I like his numbers because they incorporate more stats into the ERA, and the rickey and mob give you a more accurate assessment of power. I'm not really using any systems to bet I use his numbers compared to normal ERA to see who is over valued and under valued. But I like what I'm seeing with this prediction model.
On another note I was thinking the other day about maybe categorizing pitchers as knuckleballer, power thrower, 4 pitch, 5 pitch and so on and keeping track of how teams do against the different type of pitchers. But I wouldn't even know where to start there is just too much data for me...maybe you could automate it?
Well you wouldnt scratch the play if they are on the list. I like his numbers because they incorporate more stats into the ERA, and the rickey and mob give you a more accurate assessment of power. I'm not really using any systems to bet I use his numbers compared to normal ERA to see who is over valued and under valued. But I like what I'm seeing with this prediction model.
On another note I was thinking the other day about maybe categorizing pitchers as knuckleballer, power thrower, 4 pitch, 5 pitch and so on and keeping track of how teams do against the different type of pitchers. But I wouldn't even know where to start there is just too much data for me...maybe you could automate it?
Interesting Stake - i will have to look at Rickey and MOB in more detail.....thanks
As far as catagorizing pitchers - pretty much anything can be automated - but I'm not sure I see the value in catagorizing the pitchers since a knuckleball pitcher like RA Dickey for example may not perform the same against a specific team as say another knucleball pitcher. I see where you're going though - see if a specific team hits a specific pitcher type better or worse. But there is no way to know if that team doesn't hit that pitcher type well - OR that specific PITCHER well. I think you would be better off looking at past track record of team vs. that pitcher and if no data is available - lay off that game.
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Posted:
#43
Not a good day yesterday. Seems like this system always does horrible on the first game of a new series. This also happened on friday.
YTD: 5-15 (RL and ML plays) -11.25u
Today's Plays
Mariners
Angels
Phillies
Jays
Reds
Cards
Braves
Mets
Astros
Rangers
Rays
White Sox
Nationals
Degen and I are currently working on finding the proper filters for this system and there should be less and less plays as we move through the season, leaving only the most confident plays and getting rid of leans.
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Posted:
#45
Run Estimator MLB Prediction Formula
Looking for some help. I'm trying to update this system. I'm really having a hard time to get the update lineup query to work. I know that baseball press has changed there webpage format from the time this was made 5 years ago. Updating from baseball press is no problem, just getting it to match exsisting layout on the schedule page and query page is killing me. If anyone is still using this any help would be a welcome. Thank youhttps://docs.google.com/open?id=0B5dydT9Oe6Jbdkd1alJRRENtVnM
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