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MLB April Chase

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
Going to be running a short chase in April based on the first system in the article below:

https://www.boydsbets.com/betting-underdogs-in-baseball/

The article outlines the flat betting results but the results broken down by year are not consistently profitable as I've broken out below:

Profit/Loss on $100 flat bets ~20 bets per season (only April)
2013: 39
2014: 1514
2015: -194
2016: -743
2018: 103

 
Prospect
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Posted: #2

I'm going to lower the stakes a bit and make a chase that is consistently profitable.

Profit/Loss on $10 Game 1 Chase:
201354.8
2014152.4
201530.2
201686.2
201765.25

Small profit it is only for 1 month and overall 24% return on risk across those 5 years.

The highest chase was in 2016 (makes sense given it was the largest loss flat betting) that went to a game 5. The game betting amounts will vary depending on how many bets there are per day (2-3 is common), but they will range as follows:
Game 1 - $10
Game 2 - $15-20
Game 3 - $25-40
Game 4 - $50-80
Game 5 - $100-160

As mentioned the largest bet was in 2016 at $160 and it won. Keep that in mind if you are increasing the starting bet size above $10. Overall 2016 was the only year with consistently deep chases.

The picks will come thru the following SDQL:

https://killersports.com/mlb/query?su=1&ou=1&sdql=P%3AL+and+PP%3AL+and+SG%3D3+and+month%3D4+and+line%3E%3D105+and+P%3AD&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

If I have more time I am going to look at some of the other systems in that article linked at the top.

Open to criticism and suggestions
 
Prospect
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Posted: #3
201354.8
2014152.4
201530.2
201686.2
201765.25
 
Prospect
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Posted: #4
2013 - 54.8
2014 - 152.4
2015 - 30.2
2016 - 86.2
2017 - 65.25

paste was giving me issues
 
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Posted: #5

Quote Originally Posted by smurph_daddy:

I'm going to lower the stakes a bit and make a chase that is consistently profitable.Profit/Loss on $10 Game 1 Chase:201354.82014152.4201530.2201686.2201765.25Small profit it is only for 1 month and overall 24% return on risk across those 5 years.The highest chase was in 2016 (makes sense given it was the largest loss flat betting) that went to a game 5. The game betting amounts will vary depending on how many bets there are per day (2-3 is common), but they will range as follows:Game 1 - $10Game 2 - $15-20Game 3 - $25-40Game 4 - $50-80Game 5 - $100-160As mentioned the largest bet was in 2016 at $160 and it won. Keep that in mind if you are increasing the starting bet size above $10. Overall 2016 was the only year with consistently deep chases.The picks will come thru the following SDQL:https://killersports.com/mlb/query?su=1&ou=1&sdql=P%3AL+and+PP%3AL+and+SG%3D3+and+month%3D4+and+line%3E%3D105+and+P%3AD&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++If I have more time I am going to look at some of the other systems in that article linked at the top.Open to criticism and suggestions

 

this is basically avoid the sweep as a underdog but you chasing it from one series to next. longest chase last year would've been 6 gamer :/

 
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Posted: #6
the only 1 out of all those systems that looks promising believe it or not is the Home dog off of game with 10 or more runs. easy, lots of games to play and no lenghty chases.
 
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Posted: #7
this arcticle is good! Good luck! 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #8

Estremist, i tried sending you a DM, but says we have to be 'friends'.  so i'll just ask here.  do you have any good resources online you could direct someone to, i.e. me, who wants to learn to use SDLQ?  tutorials, etc?

 
Prospect
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Posted: #9
First play of the season:

Reds ML +114 - $10 to win $11.4

 
Prospect
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Posted: #10
Two plays tomorrow:

Orioles +175 - $10 to win $17.5
White Sox +170 - $10 to win $17

YTD: 0-1 -$10
 
Prospect
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Posted: #11

Quote Originally Posted by The_Extremist:

Posted: Mar. 9, 2018 - 12:42 PM ET "Quote" the only 1 out of all those systems that looks promising believe it or not is the Home dog off of game with 10 or more runs. easy, lots of games to play and no lenghty chases.

Three games fit that today= ATL, TOR, LAA

if you're keeping track.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #12
only keeping track of the original one I posted

Yesterday: 1-1 +$7

YTD: 1-2 -$3

no play today
 
Prospect
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Posted: #13
4 Games today

Braves +115
Reds +108
Marlins +130
Tigers +230

All $10
 
Prospect
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Posted: #14
1-3 -18.5

YTD: 2-5 -$21.5
 
Prospect
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Posted: #15

Reds +115 $20

 

royals later

 
Prospect
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Posted: #16
Royals +150 $40
 
Prospect
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Posted: #17

Orioles +180 $55 to win $99

 

 

 
Prospect
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Posted: #18
Royals +170 $30
Whitesox +170 $30

Gotta win at least one of these otherwise this is gonna get ugly quick

Padres tonight also
 
Prospect
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Posted: #19
Sorry those two bets should be $40 each
 
Prospect
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Posted: #20
Odds at +175 for each also.. sorry very disorganized this morning. Will update YTD totals tonight
 
Prospect
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Posted: #21
Cool 14th inning loss...
Padres +145 $120
 
Prospect
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Posted: #22
 
Prospect
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Posted: #23
these bets historically cash in at 46%... sitting at 20% right now
 
Prospect
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Posted: #24
lets see if it can start to regress to the mean... probably my last go at it if these lose

Marlins +150 
Pirates +155

$120 each

current YTD is around -$300
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #25
Welp that wasn’t fun while it lasted...im done throwing money at this. win percent at 17%.. let’s watch it climb back up now that’s ive finished betting
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