All Forums | Systems & Strategies

MLB April Chase

Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 2436
Posts: 25
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2015
Posts: 432
Posted: #1
Going to be running a short chase in April based on the first system in the article below:

https://www.boydsbets.com/betting-underdogs-in-baseball/

The article outlines the flat betting results but the results broken down by year are not consistently profitable as I've broken out below:

Profit/Loss on $100 flat bets ~20 bets per season (only April)
2013: 39
2014: 1514
2015: -194
2016: -743
2018: 103

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2015
Posts: 432
Posted: #2

I'm going to lower the stakes a bit and make a chase that is consistently profitable.

Profit/Loss on $10 Game 1 Chase:
201354.8
2014152.4
201530.2
201686.2
201765.25

Small profit it is only for 1 month and overall 24% return on risk across those 5 years.

The highest chase was in 2016 (makes sense given it was the largest loss flat betting) that went to a game 5. The game betting amounts will vary depending on how many bets there are per day (2-3 is common), but they will range as follows:
Game 1 - $10
Game 2 - $15-20
Game 3 - $25-40
Game 4 - $50-80
Game 5 - $100-160

As mentioned the largest bet was in 2016 at $160 and it won. Keep that in mind if you are increasing the starting bet size above $10. Overall 2016 was the only year with consistently deep chases.

The picks will come thru the following SDQL:

https://killersports.com/mlb/query?su=1&ou=1&sdql=P%3AL+and+PP%3AL+and+SG%3D3+and+month%3D4+and+line%3E%3D105+and+P%3AD&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

If I have more time I am going to look at some of the other systems in that article linked at the top.

Open to criticism and suggestions
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2015
Posts: 432
Posted: #3
201354.8
2014152.4
201530.2
201686.2
201765.25
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2015
Posts: 432
Posted: #4
2013 - 54.8
2014 - 152.4
2015 - 30.2
2016 - 86.2
2017 - 65.25

paste was giving me issues
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2016
Posts: 1199
Posted: #5

Quote Originally Posted by smurph_daddy:

I'm going to lower the stakes a bit and make a chase that is consistently profitable.Profit/Loss on $10 Game 1 Chase:201354.82014152.4201530.2201686.2201765.25Small profit it is only for 1 month and overall 24% return on risk across those 5 years.The highest chase was in 2016 (makes sense given it was the largest loss flat betting) that went to a game 5. The game betting amounts will vary depending on how many bets there are per day (2-3 is common), but they will range as follows:Game 1 - $10Game 2 - $15-20Game 3 - $25-40Game 4 - $50-80Game 5 - $100-160As mentioned the largest bet was in 2016 at $160 and it won. Keep that in mind if you are increasing the starting bet size above $10. Overall 2016 was the only year with consistently deep chases.The picks will come thru the following SDQL:https://killersports.com/mlb/query?su=1&ou=1&sdql=P%3AL+and+PP%3AL+and+SG%3D3+and+month%3D4+and+line%3E%3D105+and+P%3AD&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++If I have more time I am going to look at some of the other systems in that article linked at the top.Open to criticism and suggestions

 

this is basically avoid the sweep as a underdog but you chasing it from one series to next. longest chase last year would've been 6 gamer :/

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2016
Posts: 1199
Posted: #6
the only 1 out of all those systems that looks promising believe it or not is the Home dog off of game with 10 or more runs. easy, lots of games to play and no lenghty chases.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2017
Posts: 747
Posted: #7
this arcticle is good! Good luck! 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2017
Posts: 498
Posted: #8

Estremist, i tried sending you a DM, but says we have to be 'friends'.  so i'll just ask here.  do you have any good resources online you could direct someone to, i.e. me, who wants to learn to use SDLQ?  tutorials, etc?

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2015
Posts: 432
Posted: #9
First play of the season:

Reds ML +114 - $10 to win $11.4

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2015
Posts: 432
Posted: #10
Two plays tomorrow:

Orioles +175 - $10 to win $17.5
White Sox +170 - $10 to win $17

YTD: 0-1 -$10
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2017
Posts: 498
Posted: #11

Quote Originally Posted by The_Extremist:

Posted: Mar. 9, 2018 - 12:42 PM ET "Quote" the only 1 out of all those systems that looks promising believe it or not is the Home dog off of game with 10 or more runs. easy, lots of games to play and no lenghty chases.

Three games fit that today= ATL, TOR, LAA

if you're keeping track.

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2015
Posts: 432
Posted: #12
only keeping track of the original one I posted

Yesterday: 1-1 +$7

YTD: 1-2 -$3

no play today
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2015
Posts: 432
Posted: #13
4 Games today

Braves +115
Reds +108
Marlins +130
Tigers +230

All $10
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2015
Posts: 432
Posted: #14
1-3 -18.5

YTD: 2-5 -$21.5
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2015
Posts: 432
Posted: #15

Reds +115 $20

 

royals later

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2015
Posts: 432
Posted: #16
Royals +150 $40
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2015
Posts: 432
Posted: #17

Orioles +180 $55 to win $99

 

 

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2015
Posts: 432
Posted: #18
Royals +170 $30
Whitesox +170 $30

Gotta win at least one of these otherwise this is gonna get ugly quick

Padres tonight also
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2015
Posts: 432
Posted: #19
Sorry those two bets should be $40 each
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2015
Posts: 432
Posted: #20
Odds at +175 for each also.. sorry very disorganized this morning. Will update YTD totals tonight
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2015
Posts: 432
Posted: #21
Cool 14th inning loss...
Padres +145 $120
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2015
Posts: 432
Posted: #22
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2015
Posts: 432
Posted: #23
these bets historically cash in at 46%... sitting at 20% right now
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2015
Posts: 432
Posted: #24
lets see if it can start to regress to the mean... probably my last go at it if these lose

Marlins +150 
Pirates +155

$120 each

current YTD is around -$300
 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2015
Posts: 432
Posted: #25
Welp that wasn’t fun while it lasted...im done throwing money at this. win percent at 17%.. let’s watch it climb back up now that’s ive finished betting
All Forums | Systems & Strategies
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gambling
Betting Sites
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
810,221
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
21+
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Help Privacy Terms of Service Cookies Sitemap Forum
Covers is verified safe by:
Evalon Logo Logo GPWA Logo GDPR logo Logo GeoTrust logo Logo PCI DSS logo Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2026 CS Media Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.