Once again another baseball season is upon us - looking forward to it. The system I use has done quite well for me. It takes work but you will find it pays off as I have made money using it for the last several years.
1. One year they dropped that to 90% and they got killed. That being said……imo….the starting pitcher is the key factor when deciding who to bet on – this allows a focus on who is pitching vice looking at hitters.
1. Baseball is the best sport to bet on IMO because one position basically determines who wins or loses - the pitcher. I read a book from a long while ago where a sportsbook manager indicated that 95% of the opening line on a baseball game was based on the starting pitcher - one year they dropped it to 90% and they got killed. I focus my attention on pitchers vice hitters.
2. Recognize each team plays 162 games - the worst teams typically win close to 60 games. Therefore, there are opportunities to earn more by taking advantage of the odds.
3. Pitchers are human - they average roughly 162/5 - 32 starts if they can stay healthy. Recognize they are human and imperfections exist and there are opportunities to take advantage of if you know what your doing. That's the purpose of the rest of this post.
4. In order to be successful at handicapping baseball you need to do several things on a daily basis:
A. Go to donbest.com and print out the opening lines. For evaluation purposes always use the opening lines - everything is bastardized and sometimes it can affect your handicapping.
B. Go to sagarin.com and evaluate each starting pitcher for that particular game your interested in. You are giving each pitcher a numerical rating. The formula I use works like this:
( sagarin rank + (MOB - Ricky) )
For example, if you looked at Baltimore's Chris Tillman's numbers for 2014 - it would look like this (18 + (11.24 - 4.27) ) = 25
Let's say another pitcher had a rank of 48.Let's say the away pitcher was 48 and the home team 25 (lower the better). On paper - Tillman would be considered better however, you can't stop here - you gotta go further.
C. My system works in tandem with the opening line. Let's say the home team is a 130 favorite. I consider baseball lines to be either small favorites (sf - 110- 120); moderate favorites (mf-125-140); Solid Favorites (sof - 145-160); Big favorites (BF - 165-195) ; Huge Fav. (HF-200-over)
So if you had two pitchers with the following numbers:
48 -18
? - 130
I have a spreadsheet where I record the results of every game. I would go to it and search for games that have the numerical ratings as close to or exact as 48-18 along with being a MF (moderate favorite) and I would bet accordingly. Assume the way team won - I would record the results in the data base line this:
48-18
W-MF
As you record more and more data - you are able to pinpoint teams with similar numbers and lines and follow the percentages. So if you had several games that were close 48-17, 47-15, 46-19, something close or exact is ideal. You will find patterns as well as win loss percentages that you can follow. Maybe the away team typically wins - take them in this scenario. Keep recording your results. It's an apple to apples comparison.
You must record each game in the data base so you can track trends and find those special patterns that prove themselves - take notes as well.
5. I have 3 spreadsheets and record data accordingly - Before the trade deadline , after it and post season. You will find after the trade deadline - the teams are more about the haves and the have nots and following what you do before trade deadline doesn't work the way it did before it.
6. I use to look up a variety of data such as left vs right, etc etc. I realized the oddsmakers consider that information when they make up the line so I don't look at it any more.
7. The other thing you wanna be careful of are streaks of 4 - 7 - 10 - teams often have their streaks end on these numbers ( I don't have the exact numerical data to support this but it seems to occur via observation)
8. Also, if a team wins or loses all games in a series (3 or 4 games) - often that ends in the first game of the next series (once again observation vice numerical support)
9. I don't play over unders often - however, if you have two pitchers who pitched great that happen to get no decisions in their previous game pitched - they often will give up a bunch of runs (another thing I have observed and won money on )
Baseball is a grind but can be profitable if you have faith in the system and record the results and bet only on games where you have historical data to refer to.
Good luck all this season.
Mike - np. - I travel a lot for work - but I will when I can.
Degen - Since apple highlighted I did not respond thoroughly and since I have no life - Just to clarify your questions - This is the system I have used since 2009 - this has proven well - it's not a new system thus no back testing needed - however, i'm always doing process improvement. Regarding records - baseball is not about records but profit - I've done well using it and have had positive results for the last several years. I don't keep an ongoing records and can't say it's 343-154 - however, based on a particular scenario - If team A had a rating of 72 and team B 15 - and the line was considered a SOF for Team B - I can pinpoint and say the records for teams with those scenarios along with that line were 1 and 4 for the home team - in that scenario. I keep track of run lines as well. So It's really about percentages and finding patterns. Basically I follow the basics for statistics - have a theory - then collect, organize and analyze.
Degen, Mike - have a good season
Established in 1995,
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