Last year I ran a 2 team DOG parlay system then added a small fave/RL parlay. We profited 206 units on those systems even with suffering a 74 unit loss on an 8 game streak loss. I will do those again but also add a totals parlay and a DOG value play of the day. The parlays will follow the pre set betting amounts set forth by Tony Stoffo (great read for those not familiar with his work). We need to only hit 1 win out of an 8 game progression to profit. I cannot stress enough to only bet what you are comfortable with and make sure your bankroll can absorb a 74 unit loss if we go on an 8 game losing streak.
The idea for this came from an angle on money management and staying away from large favorites. If you like the betting amounts but differ on the plays, then by all means play the games you pick or handicap yourself and only use this thread as a guide. There are a lot of good systems here, I'm simply attempting to offer a money management strategy. I will explain the 4 syatems below.
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Last year I ran a 2 team DOG parlay system then added a small fave/RL parlay. We profited 206 units on those systems even with suffering a 74 unit loss on an 8 game streak loss. I will do those again but also add a totals parlay and a DOG value play of the day. The parlays will follow the pre set betting amounts set forth by Tony Stoffo (great read for those not familiar with his work). We need to only hit 1 win out of an 8 game progression to profit. I cannot stress enough to only bet what you are comfortable with and make sure your bankroll can absorb a 74 unit loss if we go on an 8 game losing streak.
The idea for this came from an angle on money management and staying away from large favorites. If you like the betting amounts but differ on the plays, then by all means play the games you pick or handicap yourself and only use this thread as a guide. There are a lot of good systems here, I'm simply attempting to offer a money management strategy. I will explain the 4 syatems below.
All systems will follow a pre set betting progression of 1x, 2x, 3x, 5x, 8x, 12x, 18x, 25x for a total of 74 units. Plan accordingly with unit size. For posting plays I will use $10 as a standard unit.
System 1, Dog parlay - As the title suggests, I will take 2 underdogs in a parlay each day. When available I will use Degan's underdog spreadsheet to help pinpoint possible plays. This system had one, 74 unit loss but still profited 145.9 units from May 29 to Sept 9.
System 2, Low faves/RL faves - We will take 2 low-mid range faves in a parlay. If a heavy fave looks too good to pass up, we will take the Rl to better our odds. This system profited 60.1 units from when we started on July 29 to Sept 9.
System 3, Totals - We will parlay 2 Over/Unders using the 8 step progression above. This is new this year, not back tested, tread carefully.
System 4, Value Dog - This is one I'm testing and only betting lightly. Will still post using normal unit size and results for ease of comparison with other systems. The best way to explain this is that this is an anti-public pick. For example if the public is 80% on Team A and that drives the price up, Team B would be a value dog play since they are getting a better price than they should be. This will be one play a day in a chase to win 2 or more units.
With all the plays above, I will track the dollar amount and ROI for each seperately and once a week or so update for all the systems together. If you only follow 1 or 2, it should be the first 2 that have at least been tried last year.
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
0
All systems will follow a pre set betting progression of 1x, 2x, 3x, 5x, 8x, 12x, 18x, 25x for a total of 74 units. Plan accordingly with unit size. For posting plays I will use $10 as a standard unit.
System 1, Dog parlay - As the title suggests, I will take 2 underdogs in a parlay each day. When available I will use Degan's underdog spreadsheet to help pinpoint possible plays. This system had one, 74 unit loss but still profited 145.9 units from May 29 to Sept 9.
System 2, Low faves/RL faves - We will take 2 low-mid range faves in a parlay. If a heavy fave looks too good to pass up, we will take the Rl to better our odds. This system profited 60.1 units from when we started on July 29 to Sept 9.
System 3, Totals - We will parlay 2 Over/Unders using the 8 step progression above. This is new this year, not back tested, tread carefully.
System 4, Value Dog - This is one I'm testing and only betting lightly. Will still post using normal unit size and results for ease of comparison with other systems. The best way to explain this is that this is an anti-public pick. For example if the public is 80% on Team A and that drives the price up, Team B would be a value dog play since they are getting a better price than they should be. This will be one play a day in a chase to win 2 or more units.
With all the plays above, I will track the dollar amount and ROI for each seperately and once a week or so update for all the systems together. If you only follow 1 or 2, it should be the first 2 that have at least been tried last year.
hey dan.. is your system 1 like your nhl 2 team road parlay system. except for the fact that its the two strongest dogs in terms of moneylines and not two strongest road teams?
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hey dan.. is your system 1 like your nhl 2 team road parlay system. except for the fact that its the two strongest dogs in terms of moneylines and not two strongest road teams?
hey dan.. is your system 1 like your nhl 2 team road parlay system. except for the fact that its the two strongest dogs in terms of moneylines and not two strongest road teams?
Not exactly, but very close. I will trend toward plays closer to +100, +105, etc and try and stay away from the +190 plays. Once we can use the Dog system spreadsheet there is more data for us to use to target and select plays.
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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Quote Originally Posted by confucius1:
hey dan.. is your system 1 like your nhl 2 team road parlay system. except for the fact that its the two strongest dogs in terms of moneylines and not two strongest road teams?
Not exactly, but very close. I will trend toward plays closer to +100, +105, etc and try and stay away from the +190 plays. Once we can use the Dog system spreadsheet there is more data for us to use to target and select plays.
didnt your system 1 actually go undefeated if played up until the all star break last year? and also you said you had a goal of 500 units, im guessing you are hoping for the 500 units on all 3 of these systems combined?
I have been looking forward to your posting of these systems, so thank you and best of luck this summer!!
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Dan:
didnt your system 1 actually go undefeated if played up until the all star break last year? and also you said you had a goal of 500 units, im guessing you are hoping for the 500 units on all 3 of these systems combined?
I have been looking forward to your posting of these systems, so thank you and best of luck this summer!!
didnt your system 1 actually go undefeated if played up until the all star break last year? and also you said you had a goal of 500 units, im guessing you are hoping for the 500 units on all 3 of these systems combined?
I have been looking forward to your posting of these systems, so thank you and best of luck this summer!!
My goal is 500 combined units, yes. Not sure when the loss was but we didn't start system 1 until May 29. I think the loss was just after the break.
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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Quote Originally Posted by traderjoe13:
Dan:
didnt your system 1 actually go undefeated if played up until the all star break last year? and also you said you had a goal of 500 units, im guessing you are hoping for the 500 units on all 3 of these systems combined?
I have been looking forward to your posting of these systems, so thank you and best of luck this summer!!
My goal is 500 combined units, yes. Not sure when the loss was but we didn't start system 1 until May 29. I think the loss was just after the break.
hey, i know your parlay systems aren't the 2 strongest away teams like you did with nhl, but have you looked into doing that for baseball as well? i just started backtesting, but haven't gotten very far. i didn't know if anyone else had backtested it and it didn't work. but so far (according to killer sports) for 2013 & 2014 through 4/12 (like i said, not far)
A 9
B 3
C 2
F 1
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hey, i know your parlay systems aren't the 2 strongest away teams like you did with nhl, but have you looked into doing that for baseball as well? i just started backtesting, but haven't gotten very far. i didn't know if anyone else had backtested it and it didn't work. but so far (according to killer sports) for 2013 & 2014 through 4/12 (like i said, not far)
hey, i know your parlay systems aren't the 2 strongest away teams like you did with nhl, but have you looked into doing that for baseball as well? i just started backtesting, but haven't gotten very far. i didn't know if anyone else had backtested it and it didn't work. but so far (according to killer sports) for 2013 & 2014 through 4/12 (like i said, not far)
A 9
B 3
C 2
F 1
I started looking at the 2 strongest plays last year and use that as a guide along with the dog spreadsheet. You'll see that my dog parlays will be close to the strongest plays, but not always.
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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Quote Originally Posted by Ordinaryday6:
hey, i know your parlay systems aren't the 2 strongest away teams like you did with nhl, but have you looked into doing that for baseball as well? i just started backtesting, but haven't gotten very far. i didn't know if anyone else had backtested it and it didn't work. but so far (according to killer sports) for 2013 & 2014 through 4/12 (like i said, not far)
A 9
B 3
C 2
F 1
I started looking at the 2 strongest plays last year and use that as a guide along with the dog spreadsheet. You'll see that my dog parlays will be close to the strongest plays, but not always.
ah ok, cool. sorry if i missed something, but which dog spreadsheet?
i'm probably going to run the strongest away team (fave or dog) parlay anyway, along with your parlays, at least for a little while. i know it works for the first 2 weeks, and i'll backtest the rest of it in the next few days. in case anyone is interested, it's CLE & SF today.
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ah ok, cool. sorry if i missed something, but which dog spreadsheet?
i'm probably going to run the strongest away team (fave or dog) parlay anyway, along with your parlays, at least for a little while. i know it works for the first 2 weeks, and i'll backtest the rest of it in the next few days. in case anyone is interested, it's CLE & SF today.
ah ok, cool. sorry if i missed something, but which dog spreadsheet?
i'm probably going to run the strongest away team (fave or dog) parlay anyway, along with your parlays, at least for a little while. i know it works for the first 2 weeks, and i'll backtest the rest of it in the next few days. in case anyone is interested, it's CLE & SF today.
I think I will run the strongest away team parlay with you, O6.
Dan, we really appreciate your hard work and dedication. Good luck to you my friend throughout the MLB season.
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Quote Originally Posted by Ordinaryday6:
ah ok, cool. sorry if i missed something, but which dog spreadsheet?
i'm probably going to run the strongest away team (fave or dog) parlay anyway, along with your parlays, at least for a little while. i know it works for the first 2 weeks, and i'll backtest the rest of it in the next few days. in case anyone is interested, it's CLE & SF today.
I think I will run the strongest away team parlay with you, O6.
Dan, we really appreciate your hard work and dedication. Good luck to you my friend throughout the MLB season.
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