Posted:
#26
Monday loss
Current bankroll: $1,327.10
Starting bankroll: $1,250
Tuesday Game 2: Miami (+118) and Arizona (-102); $20 to win $66.30
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MLB 2-team underdog parlay system
Posted:
#28
Tuesday loss
Current bankroll: $1,307.10
Starting bankroll: $1,250
Wednesday Game 3: Milwaukee (+106) and Oakland (+123); $30 to win $107.80
Bit longer odds, but this will be a nice win if we can pull it off. I'm considering adding a Game 9 to the system since our betting progression is more conservative and with slightly longer odds than say, two -110 teams. Haven't gotten that deep in a chase yet but I'm sure we will.
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Posted:
#30
jaker,
Good luck with this idea this year. Hope it works out for all of us.
If you or any others like to use excel as a tool, i built a simple sheet that will identify qualifying dog picks (FIP filter difference from Stoffo), and allow you to choose the 2 games for the Parlay. You can add bets to tracker and follow or bet the singles as well as parlays. I find it a good way to keep archives etc. Pretty simple, click today and click update each morning....add bets to tracker enters game in tracking sheets. You can manually enter games in tracking as well if a slight difference from your picks you post. Figured a few could use as a tool if they like or want to build off it for their own.
Link:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/10uoh8BScZljcJnQRIIcuvu_dPI4TIsno/view?usp=sharing
1
Posted:
#34
The thread states: 2 team underdog parlay system
But yet you chose to insert Boston -120 ML favorite as your pick, over Oakland a 'true' dog at +105 ML, (who by chance, happened to WIN the game, on an underdog format)
other top of the line dog's that qualified, and won last night, but for reasons unknown, were by-passed by the OP.....for know particular reason..
Washington +120 WIN 
Texas +150 WIN
Pittsburgh -102 WIN
a side note: the bookmaker sets the early line to contain the balance of the set favorite, and the value that the dog brings to the table, it's the game at hand that you cap, not the ML price,
borderline dogs, such as PIT -102 are not true dogs per say, games of minus denomination shrink value, and shouldn't be considered to qualify....
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Posted:
#35
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:
The thread states: 2 team underdog parlay systemBut yet you chose to insert Boston -120 ML favorite as your pick, over Oakland a 'true' dog at +105 ML, (who by chance, happened to WIN the game, on an underdog format)other top of the line dog's that qualified, and won last night, but for reasons unknown, were by-passed by the OP.....for know particular reason..Washington +120 WIN Texas +150 WINPittsburgh -102 WINa side note: the bookmaker sets the early line to contain the balance of the set favorite, and the value that the dog brings to the table, it's the game at hand that you cap, not the ML price, borderline dogs, such as PIT -102 are not true dogs per say, games of minus denomination shrink value, and shouldn't be considered to qualify....
The thread states: 2 team underdog parlay systemBut yet you chose to insert Boston -120 ML favorite as your pick, over Oakland a 'true' dog at +105 ML, (who by chance, happened to WIN the game, on an underdog format)other top of the line dog's that qualified, and won last night, but for reasons unknown, were by-passed by the OP.....for know particular reason..Washington +120 WIN Texas +150 WINPittsburgh -102 WINa side note: the bookmaker sets the early line to contain the balance of the set favorite, and the value that the dog brings to the table, it's the game at hand that you cap, not the ML price, borderline dogs, such as PIT -102 are not true dogs per say, games of minus denomination shrink value, and shouldn't be considered to qualify....
Boston was -102 at the time of selection, not -120. As I had mentioned in an earlier post, I'm willing to take teams up to -102, because even if I grab a team at those odds the payout for the parlay will still be around 3-to-1 for our betting progression. I usually post plays in the morning because that's what's convenient for me, and because pretty much all of these early season slates include at least a couple of early games. It's not always going to be possible for me to monitor lines up to the first pitch of every game. If anything we got some value on the Sox despite the eventual loss.
Sure, we would have done well to pick Texas at +150, but that's not the system and the whole point of this thread. The idea is to take stronger dogs who are fairly close to even money, avoid streaky teams and avoid opponents with top pitchers.
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Posted:
#40
With all due respect to everyone who has been a massive hit on these forums, its super frustrating to be participating in a chase and then the morning after you miss a game you find out it was a hit. Sports you are a treasure and I am thankful your posting the results on behalf of Jaker. But for those of us who were not clear on what should have been chosen to maintain the chase, could you throw out those picks before game time? instead of congratulating the win after?
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Posted:
#41
Our play actually would have been Detroit and Arizona (the Dbacks lost on the back end). Seattle wouldn't have qualified under our system as a dog.
I'm actually pulling the plug on this system before losing any more money. It's just been way too difficult to hit on these parlays. I believe that's one hit on 11 attempts. Would rather put my money toward more time-tested systems. Also not sure I can commit to posting these every day of the season. Sorry for the disappointment, everyone!
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Posted:
#44
Quote Originally Posted by jaker122:
Grettings everyone,
Apologies for the delay in getting this thread off the ground. I had mentioned in another thread how I'm interested in running a 2-team MLB parlay system that would involve betting on the two best underdogs each day. We will use a combination of Tony Stoffos' system for determining the two best underdogs and his 2-team parlay progression money management system.
1. Eliminate any games in which the moneyline odds are 'greater' than +150 ML
1u, 2u, 3u, 5u, 8u, 12u, 18u, 25u (total 74 unit risk for each chase)
I welcome any feedback. This is a completely untested system, but I wanted to give something a try this season. We'll look to get started with Thursday's slate of Opening Day games.
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Posted:
#47
Quote Originally Posted by therealdutch:
the only feedback i'd have, would be to consider a slower, more gradual and longer chase since the lowest a 2-team dog payout could be is on two teams that are +105 each.
a $20 bet would yield $64.05
a $25 bet on the b game would yield, again w/ both at +105, would pay $80.06, net of the 'a' game loss of $20, that's $60.06 which is still a 3 unit win.
$30 on the 'c' game would yield $96.07, minus $45 for a & b losses, is a $51.07 win on the chase. or roughly 2.5units
$40 on the 'd' game would yield $128.10, minus $75 for prior 3 losses is still a $53.10 win on the chase. still, roughly 2.5 units
point is, i played 4 games to get to "2x" whereas your progression jumped there fast, and still yielded over 2.5 units.
*all above assume +105 on both teams. payouts could be hire depending on odds.
i'll try to quickly run it to pay approx 2.5 on the chase:
$55 would pay $176.14 minus $115 = $61.14 (over 3 units)
$70 would pay $224.18 minus $170 = $54.18 (roughly 2.5 units)
$95 would pay $304.24 minus $240 = $64.24 (over 3 units)
"so continuing my above point, i've gotten to play 7 games and i'm not even at "5x" where you are with your progression on game 4, all while still yielding between 2.5 and 3 units. and again, that's using the lowest possible "dog" number of +105 on both teams"
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