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Let's talk math!! (not a system just an open discussion)

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I was just thinking of something this morning and I thought I'd bring it up here for discussion.  I am not really a baseball handicapper although I am interested and have been doing research.  This has not been tested and I'm not claiming this to be a winning system or anything. 
 
Basically I was thinking of the comparison of a teams winning percentage against the ML percentage break even point.  It's based on what percent of the time you need to win that bet at a certain money line.  This may not be a good example but hopefully it gets the point across. 
 
Let's say both teams have a .600 record 60%  and the money line is as follows:
 
team B -155 60% @ team A +135 60%
 
Now we take the percentage you need to win based on the money line.  for esample if the ML was -110 you would have to win that bet 53% of the time to break even. 
 
here is what these 2 teams would be (with ML%):
team A -155 60%                    team B   +135 57%
 
Team A would be right on but wouldn't it be right to bet on team B?  if team B wins 60% of there games the ML in this game means they would have to win 57% to break even.  So you would be getting a 3% advantage on betting team B. 
 
thoughts, sugestions, input? 
 
 
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Posted: #2
****crickets****
 
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This is really interesting, but I'd be lying if I said I weren't skeptical.

The break even point is crucial to day to day handicapping and calls I make, but I factor it in after I've already specifically handicapped every game. The reason I don't think your proposition would work is this:
Since every game is it's own animal, I'm assuming there is no rhyme or reason to Team A doing better at -150 than Team B at +145. I could be wrong, but this is my initial impression. Maybe some research could prove otherwise....
 
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Quote Originally Posted by lanastasis:

This is really interesting, but I'd be lying if I said I weren't skeptical.

The break even point is crucial to day to day handicapping and calls I make, but I factor it in after I've already specifically handicapped every game. The reason I don't think your proposition would work is this:
Since every game is it's own animal, I'm assuming there is no rhyme or reason to Team A doing better at -150 than Team B at +145. I could be wrong, but this is my initial impression. Maybe some research could prove otherwise....

Ditto, but interesting thought.

 
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by lanastasis:

This is really interesting, but I'd be lying if I said I weren't skeptical.

The break even point is crucial to day to day handicapping and calls I make, but I factor it in after I've already specifically handicapped every game. The reason I don't think your proposition would work is this:
Since every game is it's own animal, I'm assuming there is no rhyme or reason to Team A doing better at -150 than Team B at +145. I could be wrong, but this is my initial impression. Maybe some research could prove otherwise....

I agree and I have thought about that, I guess you would really need to be consistent in all matchups to find a true break even point.  I was also thinking of statshark matchups, instead of using a teams winning percentage. 

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