Posted:
#51
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Leprechaun's 2011 MLB System
Posted:
#52
Saturday, July 9 MLB Series System Picks
1. Wash (+100) risk 1.2 units
2. Pit (-110) to win 0.5 units
3. Hou (+155) risk 0.5 units
4. Special parlay CHW RL (+140)/SF (-175): 0.5 units to win 1.39 units
***Results from July 8***
1. CHW (-155) to win 1 unit.................................lose 1.55 units
2. Pit (-120) to win 0.75 units...........................win 0.75 units
3. Wash (-130) to win 1.3 units..............................lose 1.69 units
4. SF (-135) to win 0.75 units.............................lose 1.01 units
Total for July 8: 1-3, -3.50 units
Overall SU System Record: 64-61, -4.63 units
***Notes***
Rough day. Should have lost them all. Doesn't look like we'll be in the black after this weekend. Forgot to mention I'm on the road this weekend. Gonna be tough to post...especially tomorrow, but I'll do my best. Hope today goes better!
Good luck,
Leprechaun
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Posted:
#54
**Results from July 9***
1. Wash (+100) risk 1.2 units..........................lose 1.2 units
2. Pit (-110) to win 0.5 units........................lose 0.55 units
3. Hou (+155) risk 0.5 units.........................lose 0.5 units
4. Special parlay CHW RL (+140)/SF (-175): 0.5 units to win 1.39 units.......................lose 0.5 units
**Results from July 10***
1. Wash (-130) to win 2.5 units........................win 2.5 units
Total for July 9: 0-4, -2.75 units
Total For July 10: 1-0, +2.5 units
Overall SU System Record: 65-65, -4.88 units
***Notes***
Had a losing weekend and had the first losing week in a month, dropping about 2 units. I'll be posting a 1st half summary sometime today or tomorrow.
Good luck,
Leprechaun
0
Posted:
#55
Week by Week Breakdown of System Units:
| -19.4 |
-4.88 |
Thoughts on this data 7/13: After a rough start, the system got right on track with 4 straight winning weeks. Looking back at that first week, I made a few mistakes with the new implementation of the system. Since so much of the selection process is automated, I forgot to pay attention to factors that would have helped us avoid some losses. The system in general is still underperforming expectations by quite a bit. Since we aren't playing series this season, I expected our straight up win/loss record to approve and pave the way to more units. It's clear that this system will likely hit around 50% if we continue as such, which is fine as long as we are managing our units correctly.
If we remove our first week of play, this system would be an extremely respectable 61-52 and +14.5 units. That means we made some good adjustments, but in this game, you don't get the luxury of ignoring bets that were placed. I stated at the beginning of the year, that the main goal was to keep volatility low for this season. It seems that goal has been achieved well, again with the exception of the first week. We also had some medium sized fluctuation this past week which I didn't like. Overall, I'd say it's worth it to try and maintain our slow but sure forward progress. I'll keep running the system for at least 3 more weeks and then reevaluate at that point. I plan to use some of this information for next year, so while we are falling FAR short of expectations, the learning process does not end. Let's see if this system can push forward into the positive and stay there. Good luck to all as we start the second half.
Leprechaun
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Posted:
#56
Sorry...my table didn't post right. I forgot about that. Here is the table that should appear in the above post:
Week Ending-----------Units Won
6/5/11.......................(-19.4)
6/12/11.....................(+8.64)
6/19/11.....................(+2.83)
6/26/11.....................(+4.29)
7/3/11.......................(+1.16)
7/10/11.....................(-2.04)
Total: -4.88 units
Week Ending-----------Units Won
6/5/11.......................(-19.4)
6/12/11.....................(+8.64)
6/19/11.....................(+2.83)
6/26/11.....................(+4.29)
7/3/11.......................(+1.16)
7/10/11.....................(-2.04)
Total: -4.88 units
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Posted:
#57
Thursday, July 14 MLB Series System Picks
1. Yanks (-140) to win 1 unit
2. Min (-150) to 1.2 units
3. Fla (+100) risk 0.75 units
***Results from July 13***
none
Total for July 13: 0-0, +0.00 units
Overall SU System Record: 65-65, -4.88 units
***Notes***
Here we go! It was nice to have a few days off. A few plays today
to get things started, including a Marlins-Cubs battle of the inept! I
won't be watching any of these games tonight, that's for sure.
Hopefully we can start off on the right foot after last week's small
stumble.
Good luck,
Leprechaun
0
Posted:
#58
Friday, July 15 MLB Series System Picks
1. Yanks (+100) risk 1 unit
2. Bos (+140) risk 0.75 units
3a. Atl (-175) to win 0.5 units
3b. Atl RL (+120) risk 0.75 units
4. Pitt (+100) risk 1.5 units
5. Ari (+120) risk 0.75 units
***Results from July 14***
1. Yanks (-140) to win 1 unit................lose 1.4 units
2. Min (-150) to 1.2 units.....................win 1.2 units
3. Fla (+100) risk 0.75 units...................win 0.75 units
Total for July 14: 2-1, +0.55 units
Overall SU System Record: 65-65, -4.33 units
***Notes***
Always nice to have a winning day, no matter how small. Not sure how
the Yanks got shelled in the 1st, but ouch. Hopefully they show up
today. Let's hope the dogs are barking today. Not too much on the line today but potential for a nice step forward.
Good luck,
Leprechaun
0
Posted:
#59
Saturday, July 16 MLB Series System Picks
1. Bos (+130) risk 0.75 units
2. Min (-130) to win 0.75 units
***Results from July 15***
1. Yanks (+100) risk 1 unit.....................lose 1 unit
2. Bos (+140) risk 0.75 units...................lose 0.75 units
3a. Atl (-175) to win 0.5 units.................win 0.5 units
3b. Atl RL (+120) risk 0.75 units...............win 0.9 units
4. Pitt (+100) risk 1.5 units...................win 1.5 units
5. Ari (+120) risk 0.75 units..................lose 0.75 units
Total for July 15: 2-3, +0.40 units
Overall SU System Record: 69-69, -3.93 units
***Notes***
One of those rare days where we lost the ones I thought we might lose
and won the ones I thought we'd win. Had a nice side non system parlay
that hit, but that's not so relevant here. We had another positive
day, but will never get anywhere winning a half unit everyday. Seems
like we are always one win away from making a bigger step forward. The
Yanks were terribly disappointing the last 2 days, taking away 2.5 units
from us and now they've fallen out of the system. Even worse, the Red
Sox have Lackey on the mound which stops us from pushing hard on them
today. The system just isn't giving us any plays today and we can't
force it. Looks like these first 4 post all star days will be a wash or
a very small gain at best. With very little on the line, looks like a
good day for fun in the sun:)
Good luck,
Leprechaun
0
Posted:
#60
Sunday, July 17 MLB Series System Picks
There are no plays for Sunday
***Results from July 16***
1. Bos (+130) risk 0.75 units........................win 0.98 units
2. Min (-130) to win 0.75 units.....................win 0.75 units
Total for July 16: 2-0, +1.73 units
Overall SU System Record: 71-69, -2.20 units
***Notes***
We finish the short week nicely up a couple units. Too bad we didn't
have the Yanks one more time...would have got us out of the negative.
Oh well, we follow the system and that's that. No plays for today so
relax and enjoy a nice Sunday. I'll be watching the US ladies and
cheering them on strong this afternoon. Let's go USA!!
Good luck,
Leprechaun
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Posted:
#61
Monday, July 18 MLB Series System Picks
1. Min gm1 (-135) to win 1.5 units
2. Bos (-125) to win 1.5 units
3. Pit (-110) to win 1 unit
4. Philly RL (-125) to win 1.2 units
5. Wash (-110) to win 1 unit
6. Atl (+120) risk 1 unit
7. Ari (-125) to win 1 unit
8. SF (-130) to win 1.5 units
9. Conditional play. IF Min lose gm 1: Min (+100) risk 2 units
***Results from July 17***
There were no plays yesterday
Total for July 17: 0-0, +0.00 units
Overall SU System Record: 71-69, -2.20 units
***Notes***
Alright gang, today is one of the biggest days for this system this
season. We have a lot of plays today so it's a good time to take a stab
at making a slightly aggressive move on a few plays. Many of these
plays show great value. Hoping for 5 wins here, but we'll take 4 if
they are the bigger plays. Also, note the last play listed here is
CONDITIONAL. It only goes if Minny loses the day game. Have to post it
now because I won't be able to later. Let's get this damn system going
today!!!
Good luck,
Leprechaun
0
Posted:
#62
Tuesday, July 19 MLB Series System Picks
1. Bos (-115) to win 0.5 units
2. Det (-140) to win 1.2 units
3. Phi (-150) to win 2 units (I don't care if it's hot...it's the freakin' Cubs!)
4. SF (-140) to win 0.5 units
***Results from July 18***
1. Min gm1 (-135) to win 1.5 units....................lose 2.03 units
2. Bos (-125) to win 1.5 units..........................win 1.5 units
3. Pit (-110) to win 1 unit...............................win 1 unit
4. Philly RL (-125) to win 1.2 units.....................lose 1.5 units
5. Wash (-110) to win 1 unit..........................win 1 unit
6. Atl (+120) risk 1 unit..................................win 1.2 units
7. Ari (-125) to win 1 unit...............................win 1 unit
8. SF (-130) to win 1.5 units...........................win 1.5 units
9. Min gm2 (+100) risk 2 units...........................lose 2 units
Total for July 18: 6-3, +1.67 units
Overall SU System Record: 77-72, -0.53 units
***Notes***
Arrrrgh. Cleveland is single-handedly crushing this system. Can't
win when we're on them, can't beat them when we are against them.
Ruined what would have been a monster day for this system costing us 4
units. They are probably responsible for close to 15 lost units at this
point. That's as much venting as I'll allow myself on a day that we
won units. Minnesota has fallen out of the system after those two
losses, so we take our lumps. Hard to stay disciplined but it's what
has kept us from any real big hits since week one and allowed us to
grind forward. Still need to find the right balance so we can start
profiting more, but it's always a work in progress. A Philly win today
puts this system in the black finally so let's hope we can get it done.
Good luck,
Leprechaun
0
Posted:
#63
Wednesday, July 20 MLB Series System Picks
1. Bos (-125) to win 0.75 units
2. Atl (+100) risk 0.5 units
3. Det (-130) to win 0.5 units
***Results from July 19***
1. Bos (-115) to win 0.5 units.....................lose 0.58 units
2. Det (-140) to win 1.2 units....................win 1.2 units
3. Phi (-150) to win 2 units.......................win 2 units
4. SF (-140) to win 0.5 units.....................win 0.5 units
Total for July 19: 3-1, +2.12 units
Overall SU System Record: 80-73, +1.59 units
***Notes***
Boom...we continue a great roll and we can celebrate being officially
in the black for the first time this season! It's been a long road but
it's a good lesson that the season is a grind. We are teetering on the
edge right now so we need a little more of a cushion still before we
can truly get aggressive with this system. I'm happy with the past 5
weeks for sure, but being up just a unit or two is obviously not
acceptable for the season. Looking at the Minnesota series and the
Yanks series from last week, I hate that we left all those units just
sitting out there. I need to focus on a way to get the most units with
the least risk from this system. Risk part is looking good, but there
is still some work to do. Just some teeny plays today as we are up
units on all three of these series already.
Good luck,
Leprechaun
0
Posted:
#65
Thursday, July 21 MLB Series System Picks
There are no plays for Thursday
***Results from July 20***
1. Bos (-125) to win 0.75 units..........................win 0.75 units
2. Atl (+100) risk 0.5 units........................lose 0.5 units
3. Det (-130) to win 0.5 units....................lose 0.65 units
Total for July 20: 1-2, -0.40 units
Overall SU System Record: 81-75, +1.19 units
***Notes***
A small loss today...looked good after the Boston win but didn't pan
out. Still, we did great on the early series this week. If the weekend
goes as well, we should keep ourselves in the black for the rest of the
way. Long way to go before we can say that. Nothing on the board for
the system today. Back on Friday.
Good luck,
Leprechaun
0
Posted:
#66
Friday, July 22 MLB Series System Picks
1. Yanks (-160) to win 1.2 units
2. TB (+100) risk 1.5 units
3. Phi RL (+115) risk 1.5 units
4a. Ari (-170) to win 0.5 units
4b. Ari RL (+120) risk 0.75 units
5. SF (-130) to win 2 units
***Results from July 21***
There were no plays on Thursday
Total for July 21: 0-0, +0.00 units
Overall SU System Record: 81-75, +1.19 units
***Notes***
Not that many plays but we'll try to get a little aggressive here on the first games of these series. Not much else to say today. Lock and Load.
Good luck,
Leprechaun
0
Posted:
#67
Saturday, July 23 MLB Series System Picks
1. TB (-120) to win 2 units
2. Ari (-140) to win 1.5 units
3. SF (-135) to win 2.5 units
***Results from July 22***
1. Yanks (-160) to win 1.2 units......................win 1.2 units
2. TB (+100) risk 1.5 units............................lose 1.5 units
3. Phi RL (+115) risk 1.5 units.......................win 1.73
4a. Ari (-170) to win 0.5 units...................lose 0.85 units
4b. Ari RL (+120) risk 0.75 units..............lose 0.75 units
5. SF (-130) to win 2 units...................lose 2.6 units
Total for July 22: 2-3, -2.77 units
Overall SU System Record: 83-78, -1.58 units
***Notes***
Damn...really needed the Giants to step up yesterday and they blew
it. Gonna need them to win today to get back on the right side of the
fence. Good value on our plays today so hopefully we can sweep the
board!
Good luck,
Leprechaun
0
Posted:
#68
Sunday, July 24 MLB Series System Picks
1. Yanks RL (+115) risk 0.5 units
2. TB (-105) to win 2.5 units
3. SF (-110) to win 1 unit
***Results from July 23***
1. TB (-120) to win 2 units...................lose 2.4 units
2. Ari (-140) to win 1.5 units.................win 1.5 units
3. SF (-135) to win 2.5 units..................win 2.5 units
Total for July 23: 2-1, +1.60 units
Overall SU System Record: 85-79, +0.02 units
***Notes***
VERY painful loss in TB...give up the tying run in the bottom of the
9th, then get bases loaded, no outs in the 10th and fail to get a run!
Brutal. That's a 4.5 units swing! This system, once again, teeters on
the edge of a monster day but doesn't get there. That's the way it goes
sometimes. We were up for the day, but today will tell if we end the
week that way. I'll definitely be catching any games I can today.
Good luck,
Leprechaun
0
Posted:
#70
Monday, July 25 MLB Series System Picks
1a. Tex (-175) to win 0.5 units
1b. Tex RL (+110) risk 0.5 units
2. Philly RL (-115) to win 0.75 units
***Results from July 24***
1. Yanks RL (+115) risk 0.5 units...............win 0.58 units
2. TB (-105) to win 2.5 units...................win 2.5 units
3. SF (-110) to win 1 unit.....................win 1 unit
Total for July 24: 3-0, +4.08 units
Overall SU System Record: 88-79, +4.10 units
***Notes***
That's a solid way to end the week! I think that's just the second
sweep this year. We end the week up a respectable 6.3 units. That's 6
out of 8 weeks of this system in the positive. As we go forward, that
first week seems like it was more and more of an anomaly...but anomalies
count in this game. Let's keep stringing these positive weeks
together. It feels like our unit management is getting better as the
season goes on. Not much out there today with a lot of super high
lines. We'll play what we can and sit back and wait for another spot to
get aggressive when value is on our side.
Good luck,
Leprechaun
0
Posted:
#71
Tuesday, July 26 MLB Series System Picks
1a. Bos (-170) to win 0.5 units
1b. Bos RL (+100) risk 0.75 units
2. Philly (-110) to win 1 unit
3. Mil (-140) to win 1.6 units
***Results from July 25***
1a. Tex (-175) to win 0.5 units.................win 0.5 units
1b. Tex RL (+110) risk 0.5 units.................win 0.55 units
2. Philly RL (-115) to win 0.75 units............lose 0.86 units
Total for July 25: 1-1, +0.19 units
Overall SU System Record: 89-80, +4.29 units
***Notes***
A negligible profit but I'll take it. I actually made a mistake on
the Philly play...was not for the system but was a personal play (I
pretty much play Cliff Lee no matter what). Oh well, didn't cost us too
much...although it seems like every time I've made a mistake with
posting this year it's worked against us:) Today we don't have too much
out there once again. Hopefully we can pick ourselves up another unit
or so.
Good luck,
Leprechaun
0
Posted:
#73
Cisco...anytime we're on the same side, I'm happy to see it. There was a pitching change in Philly...maybe your loss got cancelled if you didn't see it in time. I love when that happens, although I feel like I'm always on the losing side when that happens. Yesterday was a good example. Oh well, we won the other two!!
Leprechaun
Leprechaun
0
Posted:
#74
Cisco...anytime we're on the same side, I'm happy to see it. There was a pitching change in Philly...maybe your loss got cancelled if you didn't see it in time. I love when that happens, although I feel like I'm always on the losing side when that happens. Yesterday was a good example. Oh well, we won the other two!!
Leprechaun
Leprechaun
0
Posted:
#75
Wednesday, July 27 MLB Series System Picks
1. Mil (-150) to win 0.5 units
2. Tex RL (+105) to win 0.75 units
***Results from July 26***
1a. Bos (-170) to win 0.5 units.....................win 0.5 units
1b. Bos RL (+100) risk 0.75 units..................win 0.75 units
2. Philly (-110) to win 1 unit..........................cancelled (see note below)
3. Mil (-140) to win 1.6 units........................win 1.6 units
Total for July 26: 2-0, +2.85 units
Overall SU System Record: 91-80, +7.14 units
***Notes***
The Philly game had a pitching change that I did not notice until after the start. I don't post these plays with listed pitchers, but I usually bet them that way. This time, because the line changed so much (went from -110 to -155) I can't count that win in good faith, even though the play would have been the same. From this point forward, all plays are listed as "action". If there is a pitching change, we accept the line move. Usually, I will come back and post the play again. I almost always check this in the late afternoon but I was in meetings yesterday and didn't have a chance.
Despite that, we still had a great day and the system has been on fire the last week. Let's hope it continues. More small plays today, but they have been moving us forward. You can tell we are getting close to August as the average lines are starting to inch way up. Looks like everyday has 4 or 5 games at -175 or higher. Might just be the matchups. Still, we stay patient and don't force anything.
Good luck,
Leprechaun
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