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I guess about 14 years on and off since working in Vegas, I've been capping the sports.

I'm sure you all have at least twice that much experience and would like your advice on an issue of murphys law.

I have just had probably the most profitable weekend in the past 5 years. My bankroll has swollen tenfold.

I know that handicapping (at least my handicapping) is streaky by nature but I am killing my book on NFL, NBA, and CB. Mostly basketball parlays.

Is it just luck or should I self-analyze how I arrive at these picks and create some sort of statistical system out of it.

Should I sit a few days out and observe, or keep doing what I'm doing until I start losing or losing badly?

kayamoses · Answer

I guess about 14 years on and off since working in Vegas, I've been capping the sports.

I'm sure you all have at least twice that much experience and would like your advice on an issue of murphys law.

I have just had probably the most profitable weekend in the past 5 years. My bankroll has swollen tenfold.

I know that handicapping (at least my handicapping) is streaky by nature but I am killing my book on NFL, NBA, and CB. Mostly basketball parlays.

Is it just luck or should I self-analyze how I arrive at these picks and create some sort of statistical system out of it.

Should I sit a few days out and observe, or keep doing what I'm doing until I start losing or losing badly?

lanastasis · Answer

More details would help.What kind of winnings have you been getting historically compared to what you got over the weekend?How do you cap? Gut instinct? system? stats? spreadsheet?Bottom line, if you&#x27;ve historically lost money or about broke even, then this weekend is a major aberration and I would just cash out. If you tend to make profits long term, no matter how small they might be, I would keep going.

kayamoses · Answer

I tend to break even over a season plus about 1000.

Usually start 3rd week of NFL and until Nba playoffs start.

I can't cap baseball.

This weekend made about a 5000 profit.

I'm small time, usually 25 wagers, parlays for fun, teasers when thats all there is.

I don't have a system but I try to pull all the stats I have time to, keeping an eye on injuries and trends. Watch a lot of games, study team chemistry and situational coaching tendencies.

Have been thinking of breaking down my own successes this season and "creating" a system.

We'll see how this week goes. Trying not to be superstitious because cash is not.

lanastasis · Answer

Well, it sounds like you have some clue of what you are doing.

I mean, it might go the other way if you keep betting, but as long as you know your limits and stay true to yourself, I don't see a need to bail out. GL to you.

kayamoses · Answer

thanks.No I&#x27;m not bailing out. &#xA0;This is one of my favorite hobbies and every year I&#x27;ve learned and improved. &#xA0;I was just thinking about chillin for a little while but then whatever mental edge that I have been playing with this season will be lost.If I do manage to statisticalize why I&#x27;ve been more successful this season, and make a formula of it somehow, I&#x27;ll be sure to post it to this forum category., just for fun.

lanastasis · Answer

Good luck, man.

Keep rolling or take a break.

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