Jonnymega's NBA Predicts for 2008

Hey all -

 

After about a year of lurking and only a few posts I thought I would share a spreadsheet I put together that helps me predict outcomes of NBA games. It gives me a predicted O/U as well as a prediction of the score.

 

It takes into account various stats including teams’ points scored and points allowed, days of rest, home and away stats, etc. I then take the top 4 or 5 biggest discrepancies between my picks and the books and play those games.

 

You may probably note the similarities to other strategies in this topic and it should be noted that this is just my own strat that I use. I thought I would post it here and track it as a way of sort of reciprocating and showing my appreciation to others who have posted their strategies for all to see (including myself).

 

Best of luck to all.

 

The top plays follow:

 

NY +8.5

CHA +12.5

ATL +7

PHX +12.5

GS -2.5

 

MEM / OK  under

NY / NJ   under

MIN / DEN   under

MIL / GS   under

CLE / PHI  over

gasman33 -

 

This is my first attempt at tracking this system and it is an extension of a system I used last year for the first time using just PA and PS. It did pretty well for me then, so I'm anxious to see how this more elaborate model performs.

 

Cheers!

 

6-4 last night. Not bad I guess.

 

Just one play, tonight.

 

WAS  +9.5

 

 

Cheers!

YTD 6-5    54%

 

 

Ok,

 

So, last night 0-1. Whatever.

 

Top plays tonight follow:

 

TOR / NJ   under 207

SAC / LAL   under 215

HOU / GS under 217

SA / MIN over 190.5

PHI / CLE   over 190.5

ORL / PHO  under 211

 

 

IND +7

GS +2.5

 

 

Cheers!

2-6 Friday

 

YTD 7-11   38%

 

 

Black Friday killed, but I will continue with the current system so it can play itself out a while. 

 

Top Plays:

 

DEN / DAL   over 209.5

CHA / ATL   over 183

MIN / SAC   over 203

IND / WAS   under 211

NY / PHO   under 223

 

 

 

Will play through, Streamline -

 

If I can continue to lose consistantly then I will simply fade the spreadsheet.

 

I'm going to post all picks according to the spreadsheet today. However, I am only playing the Lakers tonight.

 

CHI / CHA   over 187.5

NO / MEM   under 192.5

LAC / OKL   under 199.5

DEN / HOU   under 199.5

SAC / POR   under 200

NY / LAC   under 222.5

 

cheers.

13-16 YTD  45%

 

4-2 last night.

 

I simplified the system to just include PS and PA for both teams. The spreadsheet seems to pick unders most of the time when I incorporate rest days into the formula. Not sure how to overcome the under bias. Perhaps a weight on teams with bad defenses. Will work on that. But, for now, I'm posting all games with the top 3 discrepancies in bold. Discrepancy differences are in parenthesis.

 

 

SA / NO   over 185.5 (4.6)

LAC / CHI   under 198.5 (1.7)

WAS / DET   under 199 (1.6)

MIL / PHI   under 193.5 (1.4)

DAL / TOR   over 198 (.2)

UT / NJ   over 1995 (.1)

 

 

cheers!

 

 

 

 

15-23 YTD   39%

 

2-7 last night.

 

I think it's almost time to fade the spreadsheet. I'll track for another week and see if the consistancy maintains. No plays tonight, only two games so pfffft.