Posted:
#1
Jeff's gone, but his system continues on.
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Jeffs Holy Grail
Posted:
#2
quoted from last thread
Ok guys I'm sure there will be plenty of disbelievers but it took me about 4 days to research and filter it to perfection!
Rules are as follows:
1) Starts on April 15 and series chase must end by Sept 1
2) 5 game chase but only 3.2% went to that point (10 of 305)
3) Wait for a team to lose 4 in a row before starting chase
4) Win % for team after the 4 losses must be above .517
5) If the team being chased lost first 4 on the road you must look at the next series team and see if they had a losing record coming into to the series being played. Seems hard to follow but happens only about 15% of the time or less.
6) Cash your ticket
I believe I remembered all the rules if not will post later.
Now this system only produces about 18 plays a year but if your patient it will not lose!
I will post plays when they happen!
There has been 12-0 plays this year already which is good!
Any questions feel free to ask
Good luck if you play and let's get the
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Posted:
#13
5) If the team being chased lost first 4 on
the road you must look at the next series team and see if they had a
losing record coming into to the series being played. Seems hard to
follow but happens only about 15% of the time or less.
question when u look at next series what are u looking for what qualify a play says see if "(THEY?)had a losing record" ....... see if team chasing has losing record versus next tm there playing next or see if the next tm there playing has a losin record and if they do or dont then what ? and losing record as in 3 in row ?4 in row? below .517?
step 5 says see if they have a losing record but doesnt say what to do if htey do or dont have a losing record
question when u look at next series what are u looking for what qualify a play says see if "(THEY?)had a losing record" ....... see if team chasing has losing record versus next tm there playing next or see if the next tm there playing has a losin record and if they do or dont then what ? and losing record as in 3 in row ?4 in row? below .517?
step 5 says see if they have a losing record but doesnt say what to do if htey do or dont have a losing record
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Posted:
#20
i didn't use rule 5 in my backtest. i seem to remember the rule meaning that the opponent had won their previous series, not that their overall win percentage was over 50%, but i could definitely be wrong.
i applied rule 5 (using overall win percentage and previous series record) to only the series that won on game 6, and it would have eliminated it.
here are the numbers for previous years
here are the numbers for previous years
2013
A 16-12
B 7-5
C 4-1
D 1-0
2012
A 15-12
B 8-4
C 2-2
D 1-1
E 1-0
2011
A 8-12
B 5-7
C 4-3
D 1-2
E 2-0
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Posted:
#21
Quote Originally Posted by Ordinaryday6:
i didn't use rule 5 in my backtest. i seem to remember the rule meaning that the opponent had won their previous series, not that their overall win percentage was over 50%, but i could definitely be wrong.
i didn't use rule 5 in my backtest. i seem to remember the rule meaning that the opponent had won their previous series, not that their overall win percentage was over 50%, but i could definitely be wrong.
i applied rule 5 (using overall win percentage and previous series record) to only the series that won on game 6, and it would have eliminated it.
here are the numbers for previous years
here are the numbers for previous years
2013
A 16-12
B 7-5
C 4-1
D 1-0
2012
A 15-12
B 8-4
C 2-2
D 1-1
E 1-0
2011
A 8-12
B 5-7
C 4-3
D 1-2
E 2-0
Looks decent, average odds?
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Posted:
#22
about a third of the plays are dogs. average odds are pretty consistent:
2014: -108
2013: -111
2012: -115
2011: -105
41 out of a total of 189 plays (21.7%) are -150 or worse.
i'm going to go through and add in rule 5, if i can do it easy enough. i'll do it both ways (total WP and previous series WP).
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Posted:
#23
i went back and looked at it. i think it's designed to take out the pick in which the opponent won (had greater than 50% of) their previous series, but i did it both ways. it’s pretty clear that it needs Rule 5, but i’m not sure which is the better way to go, overall WP or series. i hope this formatting comes out okay, this was the best way to compare the 2. they both have pros and cons. what do you think?
number of series in which the team lost all 4 of its games on the road:
2014: 10
2013: 9
2012: 7
2011: 9
plays removed:
based on series overall WP
2014: 4 (B, D, E, F) 2014: 7 (3A, 2B, 1D, 1F)
2013: 4 (A, 2B, C) 2013: 7 (3A, 2B, 1C, 1D)
2012: 6 (3A, 2B, 1E) 2012: 5 (1A, 2B, 1D, 1E)
2011: 7 (3A, 2B, 1C, 1D) 2011: 4 (1A, 1B, 2C)
total 21 (7A, 7B, 2C, 2D, 2E, 1F) total: 23 (8A, 7B, 3C, 3D, 1E, 1F)
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Posted:
#25
2012 2012
A 12-9 (57.1% - 55.5% w/o Rule 5) A 14-8 (64%)
B 6-3 B 6-2
C 2-1 C 2-0
D 1-0
2011 2011
A 5-8 (38.4% - 40% w/o Rule 5) A 7-9 (44%)
B 3-5 B 4-5
C 3-2 C 2-3
D 0-2 D 1-2
E 2-0 E 2-0
average odds with those series removed:
series: overall
2014: -116 2014: -112
2013: -111 2013: -120
2012: -114 2012: -119
2011: -101 2011: -109
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