for the last month of nhl, if you would have placed $100 single bets on just favorites, you would be up $2200 right now. If this pattern continues or is anywhere close, this means by end of next month, it should go up to $4 thousand something. Ive been keeping a record of all the favorites, underdogs, home favorites etc.. And this is what my conclusion was. The only thing is you need patience and discipline. Let me know what you guys think?
Here are tonights picks for NHL
Washington Capitols
New York Rangers
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
for the last month of nhl, if you would have placed $100 single bets on just favorites, you would be up $2200 right now. If this pattern continues or is anywhere close, this means by end of next month, it should go up to $4 thousand something. Ive been keeping a record of all the favorites, underdogs, home favorites etc.. And this is what my conclusion was. The only thing is you need patience and discipline. Let me know what you guys think?
It doesn't work. Last month was good for favs, that's all. You'll lose alot by the end of the year if you keep this up. Trust me. Last year was good for dogs.
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It doesn't work. Last month was good for favs, that's all. You'll lose alot by the end of the year if you keep this up. Trust me. Last year was good for dogs.
you guys might be right, but lets see what happens this year. So far im up $2200. But im keeping track of all the favs and underdogs. Also chanceP im not blindly betting on these games, i have a whole spreadsheet of records since day 1. Keep the comments coming, were here to help each other succeed. Thanks guys.
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you guys might be right, but lets see what happens this year. So far im up $2200. But im keeping track of all the favs and underdogs. Also chanceP im not blindly betting on these games, i have a whole spreadsheet of records since day 1. Keep the comments coming, were here to help each other succeed. Thanks guys.
The 10 year stats on bet the favorites is negative, something like a 10 to 20 % loss of your bankroll per season. This information is the same in football, hockey, basketball and baseball. I bet on horses for 10 years before starting on other sports this year. I have found that some of the horse information, which is extensive, applies accurately for our purposes in the NHL. The bet-on-the-favorite is historically a losing proposition with lenthly stats to prove it.
There is nothing wrong with making money on your current excellent observation, which you deserve for taking the risk. Our thoughts are that this trend might change in another direction:
- the juice will be increased until you get 0 or negative returns
- the trend reverses itself
- rule changes that affect you negatively
But the bottom line is that you are making money. Congratulations.
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The 10 year stats on bet the favorites is negative, something like a 10 to 20 % loss of your bankroll per season. This information is the same in football, hockey, basketball and baseball. I bet on horses for 10 years before starting on other sports this year. I have found that some of the horse information, which is extensive, applies accurately for our purposes in the NHL. The bet-on-the-favorite is historically a losing proposition with lenthly stats to prove it.
There is nothing wrong with making money on your current excellent observation, which you deserve for taking the risk. Our thoughts are that this trend might change in another direction:
- the juice will be increased until you get 0 or negative returns
- the trend reverses itself
- rule changes that affect you negatively
But the bottom line is that you are making money. Congratulations.
One thing to remember is that the public always likes to bet on the favourite, so logically the bookmakers are gonna skew the odds to give higher juice then they should, ultimately the main reason why there's almost always value in the dog.
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One thing to remember is that the public always likes to bet on the favourite, so logically the bookmakers are gonna skew the odds to give higher juice then they should, ultimately the main reason why there's almost always value in the dog.
One thing to remember is that the public always likes to bet on the favourite, so logically the bookmakers are gonna skew the odds to give higher juice then they should, ultimately the main reason why there's almost always value in the dog.
did u get my money order yet?
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Quote Originally Posted by Tomspeople:
One thing to remember is that the public always likes to bet on the favourite, so logically the bookmakers are gonna skew the odds to give higher juice then they should, ultimately the main reason why there's almost always value in the dog.
ok thanks to everyone making comments to my gameplan on betting just favorites. I dont know about the 10 year stretch dabar cause im going off of what the numbers tell me for this season. So what im going to do is kind of give an update of what the numbers are for each category, also remember the results are strictly based on $100 single bets on each game. Nothing less, nothing more. Heres the results for NHL from 10/4 - 11/9
Favorites money line Only: + $ 2616
Dogs money line Only : - $ 2865
Numbers dont lie, so im going to keep betting on favorites and hope to win shit load of money at the end of the season. Any comments? What do you guys think? Thank you for the inputs, keep it coming.
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ok thanks to everyone making comments to my gameplan on betting just favorites. I dont know about the 10 year stretch dabar cause im going off of what the numbers tell me for this season. So what im going to do is kind of give an update of what the numbers are for each category, also remember the results are strictly based on $100 single bets on each game. Nothing less, nothing more. Heres the results for NHL from 10/4 - 11/9
Favorites money line Only: + $ 2616
Dogs money line Only : - $ 2865
Numbers dont lie, so im going to keep betting on favorites and hope to win shit load of money at the end of the season. Any comments? What do you guys think? Thank you for the inputs, keep it coming.
are there any stats where it shows that betting on favs in NHL will make you loose money? I mean everybodys arguments do make sense but im a statistical person and unless I dont see some numbers then these arguments are just fallacies. What do you guys think? Thanks.
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are there any stats where it shows that betting on favs in NHL will make you loose money? I mean everybodys arguments do make sense but im a statistical person and unless I dont see some numbers then these arguments are just fallacies. What do you guys think? Thanks.
are there any stats where it shows that betting on favs in NHL will make you loose money? I mean everybodys arguments do make sense but im a statistical person and unless I dont see some numbers then these arguments are just fallacies. What do you guys think? Thanks.
I can try to get you the stats. I think betting $100 a game you would have lost about $30,000 last season.
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Quote Originally Posted by mubasher:
are there any stats where it shows that betting on favs in NHL will make you loose money? I mean everybodys arguments do make sense but im a statistical person and unless I dont see some numbers then these arguments are just fallacies. What do you guys think? Thanks.
I can try to get you the stats. I think betting $100 a game you would have lost about $30,000 last season.
are there any stats where it shows that betting on favs in NHL will make you loose money? I mean everybodys arguments do make sense but im a statistical person and unless I dont see some numbers then these arguments are just fallacies. What do you guys think? Thanks.
Extact of Woodland and Woodland's stidy of Market efficience and the NHL
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Quote Originally Posted by mubasher:
are there any stats where it shows that betting on favs in NHL will make you loose money? I mean everybodys arguments do make sense but im a statistical person and unless I dont see some numbers then these arguments are just fallacies. What do you guys think? Thanks.
Extact of Woodland and Woodland's stidy of Market efficience and the NHL
thanks second again for that article, helped me get educated alot. Well im up for now, but i was thinking why not set a certain amount of money you want to make, soon as you hit that then just back off. For example if you want to make $30,000 you have to bet around $300 a game but also know that it will reach its peak somewhere in the season, just like stocks. Get out once it starts going down. Any suggestions?
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thanks second again for that article, helped me get educated alot. Well im up for now, but i was thinking why not set a certain amount of money you want to make, soon as you hit that then just back off. For example if you want to make $30,000 you have to bet around $300 a game but also know that it will reach its peak somewhere in the season, just like stocks. Get out once it starts going down. Any suggestions?
ok check this out guys, im firm believer of patterns. And the favorites have lost the last three days, according to my records, the 4th time loosing is around 20%. And if it does happen today then fuck no way its gonna happen 5 days in a row. Bet all your favs tonight, if you dont want to take the risk then bet a light amount. Here are tonights fav picks:
Buffalo
New York Rangers
Carolina
Columbus
Florida
Chicago
Vancouver
Bet equal amounts on each. This will cash you in, I promise!!!
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ok check this out guys, im firm believer of patterns. And the favorites have lost the last three days, according to my records, the 4th time loosing is around 20%. And if it does happen today then fuck no way its gonna happen 5 days in a row. Bet all your favs tonight, if you dont want to take the risk then bet a light amount. Here are tonights fav picks:
Buffalo
New York Rangers
Carolina
Columbus
Florida
Chicago
Vancouver
Bet equal amounts on each. This will cash you in, I promise!!!
MU Basher...no offense but post like these are Silly. Maybe betting Favorites early in year works but all you need to do to check this is go back and look at each teams early plays for first 30 days over 5 years lets say?? But a system where you bet all favorites puts you with the Public most of the time and we all know what that means.
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MU Basher...no offense but post like these are Silly. Maybe betting Favorites early in year works but all you need to do to check this is go back and look at each teams early plays for first 30 days over 5 years lets say?? But a system where you bet all favorites puts you with the Public most of the time and we all know what that means.
Consider that since late last friday's Nashville game that:
Favorites won = 22
Dogs won =16
Total games played = 38
Favs ave. profit = .69
Dogs ave profit = 1.35
Favs return for 38 equal bets = 37.18
Dogs return for 38 equal bets =37.60
Either way = negative money.
Consider that
1. The lines are exactly where they are supposed to be ( the market has adjusted) and that there is no advantage to be gained by betting a single-factor system.
2. If the 38 bets would have had just a little less vig, then the profits would have been positive; therefore search for the best posible lines with low vigorish.
Good Luck to all who dare.
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Consider that since late last friday's Nashville game that:
Favorites won = 22
Dogs won =16
Total games played = 38
Favs ave. profit = .69
Dogs ave profit = 1.35
Favs return for 38 equal bets = 37.18
Dogs return for 38 equal bets =37.60
Either way = negative money.
Consider that
1. The lines are exactly where they are supposed to be ( the market has adjusted) and that there is no advantage to be gained by betting a single-factor system.
2. If the 38 bets would have had just a little less vig, then the profits would have been positive; therefore search for the best posible lines with low vigorish.
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