IRAGE ODDS BUSTER STRATEGY

typo: killersports WAS +105

Yeah - that's what I was afraid of - and included that comment in my post.  It will defintely affect the results - but theoretically - it may filter out a a play here or there.....but a DOG on killer sports - should remain a DOG on Covers.   Unless there are a lot of instances where a team is a DOG on covers but a favorite on Killersports.

I could be wrong - who knows 

So again - take these results with a grain of salt - and can be used directionally but hyvong is right - killer sports does not have the same odds as covers - therefore will filter out plays that could have been potential wins.

BUT I did find this - according to killer sports the system performs poorly in 4 game series - check it out

NO INTERLEAGUE AND NO 4 GAME SERIES

 

SQDL Query

t:line >=-110 and o:line>=-110 and t:line > o:line and C and SGS <=3 and season = 2009

2009 SU: 82-86 (0.2 rpg) average line: +100 / -110 on / against: -$400 / -$420 ROI: -2.4% / -2.3%
2010 SU: 63-58 (0.2 rpg) average line: +100 / -110 on / against: +$500 / -$1,128 ROI: +4.1% / -8.5%
2011 SU: 76-59 (0.5 rpg) average line: -100 / -109 on / against: +$1,709 / -$2,423 ROI: +12.6% / -16.4%
2012 SU: 49-27 (0.5 rpg) average line: -101 / -109 on / against: +$2,173 / -$2,647 ROI: +28.3% / -31.9%

Also if you only bet the 3rd game OF a 4 game series - it yeilds positive results

 

SQDL Query

t:line >=-110 and o:line>=-110 and t:line > o:line and C and SG =3 and SGS = 4 and season = 2011

2012 SU: 4-1 (0.8 rpg) average line: -100 / -110 on / against: +$300 / -$338 ROI: +59.8% / -61.7%

An extra 3 units in 2010, extra 7 units in 2011 and 3 units in 2012.

 

Irage - is there any way you can backtest interleague and 4 game series results with your database?

I will have to create a field that calculates a 4 game series, but yes, I think I can do that.

We have a couple of potential games today. Slim pick'ins on these Interleague games.

I am all over San Fran tonight. Even if the line shifts to make them a FAV I think Giants have better pitching, deeper bench. As long as they can hit tonight they will be good to go. Angels have better bats, but Cain has been pretty good as of late.

GIANTS GO DOWN LIKE A LEAD BALLON!! Curse of the no-hitter!!   IMO of course

LAA "lesser" pitchers have thrown back to back shutouts!

Milwuakee vs Toronto will be a GO.

San Francisco v Angels will be a GO.

question regarding the filters and the plays today.  the odds for milw closed at -115 and tor closed at -105.

also Sf odds are -130 and LAA are +110.  These are according to Covers MLB Baseball Live odds & betting lines. 

with the exception of some occasions, should the max line for both teams be -110?   these plays passed the filters?

Don't think those odds are right Jake....MIL was a dog at game time - irage uses the odds listed under MLB scores on Covers

That is correct. I the lines exceed -110 on either side we pass on the game.

Milwaukee was -101, good to go.
San Fran +102. good to go.

Becarful where you get the lines. You have to look at the MLB scores to get the correct line. If you look on any on the contest pages you will get different odds.

Cincinnati was not a play tonight. Filters and numbers favored Cleveland.

Just FYI, I am working on RL bets, but there is alot of data to go through. I hammered Yankee RL tonight along with Milwaukee.

Why not tell us b4 the Yankees game started?

thanks for the help on the odds page...sure enough when u compare the live odds page that i listed with the matchup they are different...ok i got it...thanks a ton for the assist. 

Because it really didn't have anything to do with this thread, just a RL I spotted this morning.

Sorry!

Nice call on SF and MIL.

Irage - what are you're feelings on Toronto if they quailify today....I know the covers lines are not out yet - but I think TOR will be the DOG against MIL tonight - considering MIL is putting up a rookie pitcher.

Correction: TOR will be the DOG against MIL tonight - even though MIL is putting up a rookie pitcher.

Remember, I just found this less than 30 days ago. I did back test it, but did not apply filters. It's got potential, but needs to be refined.

Giants baby, I told you Cain was good for a win. All I needed was Gaints to be able to hit and they did.

THE DOG AND PONY SHOW!
1. No bet if the line is higher than -110 for either team.
Some exceptions made for -111, but I'll review as needed.
2. Wait for the line movements to stop, some times moves happen up to 2-3 minutes before game time.
3. Take the DOG
4. Avoid games where the DOG is going to sweep a series.
5. Avoid games where there is a lot of line movement.

6/3 - Phillies - LOSS
6/3 - Brewers - LOSS
6/3 - Rangers - WIN
6/3 - Cardinals - LOSS
6/5 - Toronto - WIN
6/5 - Padres - WIN
6/8 - Washington - WIN
6/8 - Tampa Bay - WIN
6/10 - Cleveland - WIN
6/10 - Dodgers - WIN
6/12 - Oakland - WIN
6/12 - Philly - LOSS
6/13 - Boston v Miami - NO PLAY Weird Line Movements
6/13 - Brewers - LOSS
6/15 - Brewers - WIN
6/16 - Phillies - LOSS
6/18 - Brewers - WIN
6/18 - Giants - WIN

64% Winning Percentage

Potential Plays for 6/19

Cleveland

Pittsburgh

CRUNCH TIME IN THE BATTLE FORUM! The Championship Battle between Edwardglennx and Crushalot enters CRUNCH TIME! The battle is all tied up 7-7 going into Day 6. Will Crush retain the Title or will we be crowning a new Champ in the BATTLE FORUM!The excitement is building.    Go to the Forum and watch this intense Battle unfold! https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=101349468&page=12

Nice call last night Irage , keep up the work

Good point! Remember when TOR was killin it in the Cactus Leagues...something like 18 wins in a row!!!