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IRAGE ODDS BUSTER STRATEGY

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Posted: #401
Quote Originally Posted by Air1:

was out so i didnt see the SF/Sea game line. Was it a play - which team was a play at game time??



Lines were at -113 and 106 when I played SEA. But then quickly became -104 and -102 around top 1. I'm not sure if SEA was a play but I personally took em because they were swept by the Pads and lost a chunk on that series. Btw, you still keep track of your system?
 
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Posted: #402
Quote Originally Posted by BookieCrusher88:



Lines were at -113 and 106 when I played SEA. But then quickly became -104 and -102 around top 1. I'm not sure if SEA was a play but I personally took em because they were swept by the Pads and lost a chunk on that series. Btw, you still keep track of your system?


Nice hit on Sea. Wish I was avail to take em

My thread is based off of the rpi system. No rpi plays means no plays for me.
 
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Posted: #403
Quote Originally Posted by Air1:


My thread is based off of the rpi system. No rpi plays means no plays for me.


Oh I see.
 
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Posted: #404
Just FYI, look at pitching matchups, if the difference is  > 1.50 difference and the team is a DOG at game time. Take it.
 
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Posted: #405

Quote Originally Posted by irage:

Just FYI, look at pitching matchups, if the difference is  > 1.50 difference and the team is a DOG at game time. Take it.

Is that ERA? or WHIP? or something else?

 
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Posted: #406
Quote Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

Is that ERA? or WHIP? or something else?


I think it is ERA. It maybe impossible to have 1.5 WHIP different. 
 
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Posted: #407
ERA
 
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Posted: #408

Thanks Irage - so I assume even if SF is a dog by game time today - you wouldn't bet it since Madison Bumgarne ERA is 3.08 and Felix Hernandez ERA is 3.70 giving us a differential of only .62?

Do you want me to add season ERA's to the spreadsheet?

 
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Posted: #409

So if Pitcher A (dog) ERA 4.6

Pitcher B (fav) ERA 3.1

Take the dog?

 
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Posted: #410
Gotta be the other way around - no? - you want the dog to have a better ERA - but usually the better pitcher makes the team the favorite
 
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Posted: #411

Hey guys - so I was messing around on the killersports.com query engine and ran Irage's system through the DB

USING NO FILTERS - just bet the DOG if both lines are -110 or less

SQDL Query
t:line >=-110 and o:line>=-110 and t:line >= o:line and season = 2009


2009 SU: 208-232 (-0.1 rpg) average line: -102 / -108 on / against: -$2,865 / +$785 ROI: -6.4% / +1.7%
2010 SU: 184-171 (0.1 rpg) average line: -103 / -107 on / against: +$850 / -$2,688 ROI: +2.3% / -
2011 SU: 228-223 (0.1 rpg) average line: -103 / -107 on / against: -$105 / -$2,157 ROI: -0.2% / -4.5%
2012 SU: 112-90 (0.1 rpg) average line: -103 / -108 on / against: +$1,965 / -$3,034 ROI: +9.5% / -14.0%

So it got crushed in 2009.  2010 was ok. 2011 slight loser.  But is kicking ass in 2012


Now add the DOG's starting pitcher must have a better ERA

SQDL Query
t:line >=-110 and o:line>=-110 and t:line >= o:line and and t:STDSERA <= o:STDSERA and season = 2009

2009 SU: 105-103 (0.5 rpg) average line: -102 / -108 on / against: $0 / -$985 ROI: 0.0% / -4.4%
2010 SU: 99-78 (0.6 rpg) average line: -102 / -108 on / against: +$1,905 / -$2,863 ROI: +10.5% / -15.0%
2011 SU: 102-89 (0.3 rpg) average line: -103 / -107 on / against: +$1,055 / -$2,004 ROI: +5.4% / -9.8%
2012 SU: 54-28 (0.8 rpg) average line: -105 / -107 on / against: +$2,538 / -$2,997 ROI: +30.2% / -34.1%

This erases the losses in 2009.  2010 and 2011 look good - and still kicks ass in 2012

 

Now I know one of the filters is don't bet the DOG in the final game of the series if the DOG is going to sweep the series.  Now I assumed the team was a DOG thoughout the series - that probably is not the case.  BUT if you assume the team you're betting was the DOG thoughout the series then........


3rd game if DOG (team you are betting) won the first 2 games of th3 3 game series

 

SQDL Query

t:line >=-110 and o:line>=-110 and t:line >= o:line and and t:STDSERA <= o:STDSERA and season = 2009 and p:W and pp:W and SG=3

 

2009 SU: 6-7 (-0.8 rpg) average line: -102 / -108 on / against: -$110 / +$50 ROI: -8.3% / +3.5
2010 SU: 7-4 (0.1 rpg) average line: -103 / -107 on / against: +$285 / -$350 ROI: +25.1% / -29.8%
2011 SU: 7-6 (1.7 rpg) average line: -102 / -108 on / against: +$90 / -$155 ROI: +6.8% / -11.0%
2012 SU: 4-1 (1.0 rpg) average line: -102 / -108 on / against: +$295 / -$335 ROI: +57.8% / -62.0%

 

As you can see avoiding the 3rd game if the team you're betting won the first 2 games in the series would have avoided loses in 2009 - but you would have been positive in 2010,2011, and 2012.  Conclusion......not sure if avoiding the 3rd game filter has merit.

 

Keep in mind that i'm new to SQDL - so if any of you guys are masters at it - can you check my work? 

At the end of the day - it looks like Irage has a solid one here.  Again great job Irage - abnd thanks for sharing this.  I owe you big time!!!!!

The only other question - I wonder if their are any other CUT filters that would make the win rate even higher?

 
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Posted: #412
Quote Originally Posted by gbpackman:

So if Pitcher A (dog) ERA 4.6

Pitcher B (fav) ERA 3.1

Take the dog?



If the DOG pitching is 1.5 better than it's opponent then take the DOG. It's not the only filter I use.
 
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Posted: #413
Quote Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

Hey guys - so I was messing around on the killersports.com query engine and ran Irage's system through the DB

USING NO FILTERS - just bet the DOG if both lines are -110 or less

SQDL Query
t:line >=-110 and o:line>=-110 and t:line >= o:line and season = 2009


2009 SU: 208-232 (-0.1 rpg) average line: -102 / -108 on / against: -$2,865 / +$785 ROI: -6.4% / +1.7%
2010 SU: 184-171 (0.1 rpg) average line: -103 / -107 on / against: +$850 / -$2,688 ROI: +2.3% / -
2011 SU: 228-223 (0.1 rpg) average line: -103 / -107 on / against: -$105 / -$2,157 ROI: -0.2% / -4.5%
2012 SU: 112-90 (0.1 rpg) average line: -103 / -108 on / against: +$1,965 / -$3,034 ROI: +9.5% / -14.0%

So it got crushed in 2009.  2010 was ok. 2011 slight loser.  But is kicking ass in 2012


Now add the DOG's starting pitcher must have a better ERA

SQDL Query
t:line >=-110 and o:line>=-110 and t:line >= o:line and and t:STDSERA <= o:STDSERA and season = 2009

2009 SU: 105-103 (0.5 rpg) average line: -102 / -108 on / against: $0 / -$985 ROI: 0.0% / -4.4%
2010 SU: 99-78 (0.6 rpg) average line: -102 / -108 on / against: +$1,905 / -$2,863 ROI: +10.5% / -15.0%
2011 SU: 102-89 (0.3 rpg) average line: -103 / -107 on / against: +$1,055 / -$2,004 ROI: +5.4% / -9.8%
2012 SU: 54-28 (0.8 rpg) average line: -105 / -107 on / against: +$2,538 / -$2,997 ROI: +30.2% / -34.1%

This erases the losses in 2009.  2010 and 2011 look good - and still kicks ass in 2012

 

Now I know one of the filters is don't bet the DOG in the final game of the series if the DOG is going to sweep the series.  Now I assumed the team was a DOG thoughout the series - that probably is not the case.  BUT if you assume the team you're betting was the DOG thoughout the series then........


3rd game if DOG (team you are betting) won the first 2 games of th3 3 game series

 

SQDL Query

t:line >=-110 and o:line>=-110 and t:line >= o:line and and t:STDSERA <= o:STDSERA and season = 2009 and p:W and pp:W and SG=3

 

2009 SU: 6-7 (-0.8 rpg) average line: -102 / -108 on / against: -$110 / +$50 ROI: -8.3% / +3.5
2010 SU: 7-4 (0.1 rpg) average line: -103 / -107 on / against: +$285 / -$350 ROI: +25.1% / -29.8%
2011 SU: 7-6 (1.7 rpg) average line: -102 / -108 on / against: +$90 / -$155 ROI: +6.8% / -11.0%
2012 SU: 4-1 (1.0 rpg) average line: -102 / -108 on / against: +$295 / -$335 ROI: +57.8% / -62.0%

 

As you can see avoiding the 3rd game if the team you're betting won the first 2 games in the series would have avoided loses in 2009 - but you would have been positive in 2010,2011, and 2012.  Conclusion......not sure if avoiding the 3rd game filter has merit.

 

Keep in mind that i'm new to SQDL - so if any of you guys are masters at it - can you check my work? 

At the end of the day - it looks like Irage has a solid one here.  Again great job Irage - abnd thanks for sharing this.  I owe you big time!!!!!

The only other question - I wonder if their are any other CUT filters that would make the win rate even higher?

 

Sorry guys - scratch my filter numbers - I had an extra
"and" in the query and that changes the results - I will redo this.

 sorry about that

 
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Posted: #414
Quote Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

Hey guys - so I was messing around on the killersports.com query engine and ran Irage's system through the DB

USING NO FILTERS - just bet the DOG if both lines are -110 or less

SQDL Query
t:line >=-110 and o:line>=-110 and t:line >= o:line and season = 2009


2009 SU: 208-232 (-0.1 rpg) average line: -102 / -108 on / against: -$2,865 / +$785 ROI: -6.4% / +1.7%
2010 SU: 184-171 (0.1 rpg) average line: -103 / -107 on / against: +$850 / -$2,688 ROI: +2.3% / -
2011 SU: 228-223 (0.1 rpg) average line: -103 / -107 on / against: -$105 / -$2,157 ROI: -0.2% / -4.5%
2012 SU: 112-90 (0.1 rpg) average line: -103 / -108 on / against: +$1,965 / -$3,034 ROI: +9.5% / -14.0%

So it got crushed in 2009.  2010 was ok. 2011 slight loser.  But is kicking ass in 2012


Now add the DOG's starting pitcher must have a better ERA

SQDL Query
t:line >=-110 and o:line>=-110 and t:line >= o:line and and t:STDSERA <= o:STDSERA and season = 2009

2009 SU: 105-103 (0.5 rpg) average line: -102 / -108 on / against: $0 / -$985 ROI: 0.0% / -4.4%
2010 SU: 99-78 (0.6 rpg) average line: -102 / -108 on / against: +$1,905 / -$2,863 ROI: +10.5% / -15.0%
2011 SU: 102-89 (0.3 rpg) average line: -103 / -107 on / against: +$1,055 / -$2,004 ROI: +5.4% / -9.8%
2012 SU: 54-28 (0.8 rpg) average line: -105 / -107 on / against: +$2,538 / -$2,997 ROI: +30.2% / -34.1%

This erases the losses in 2009.  2010 and 2011 look good - and still kicks ass in 2012

 

Now I know one of the filters is don't bet the DOG in the final game of the series if the DOG is going to sweep the series.  Now I assumed the team was a DOG thoughout the series - that probably is not the case.  BUT if you assume the team you're betting was the DOG thoughout the series then........


3rd game if DOG (team you are betting) won the first 2 games of th3 3 game series

 

SQDL Query

t:line >=-110 and o:line>=-110 and t:line >= o:line and and t:STDSERA <= o:STDSERA and season = 2009 and p:W and pp:W and SG=3

 

2009 SU: 6-7 (-0.8 rpg) average line: -102 / -108 on / against: -$110 / +$50 ROI: -8.3% / +3.5
2010 SU: 7-4 (0.1 rpg) average line: -103 / -107 on / against: +$285 / -$350 ROI: +25.1% / -29.8%
2011 SU: 7-6 (1.7 rpg) average line: -102 / -108 on / against: +$90 / -$155 ROI: +6.8% / -11.0%
2012 SU: 4-1 (1.0 rpg) average line: -102 / -108 on / against: +$295 / -$335 ROI: +57.8% / -62.0%

 

As you can see avoiding the 3rd game if the team you're betting won the first 2 games in the series would have avoided loses in 2009 - but you would have been positive in 2010,2011, and 2012.  Conclusion......not sure if avoiding the 3rd game filter has merit.

 

Keep in mind that i'm new to SQDL - so if any of you guys are masters at it - can you check my work? 

At the end of the day - it looks like Irage has a solid one here.  Again great job Irage - abnd thanks for sharing this.  I owe you big time!!!!!

The only other question - I wonder if their are any other CUT filters that would make the win rate even higher?



Very cool. I also look or matches where the DOG lost the game before. It's not always a pick, but I watch for them.
 
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Posted: #415

Quote Originally Posted by irage:



Very cool. I also look or matches where the DOG lost the game before. It's not always a pick, but I watch for them.

Here is the answer to that Irage....

SQDL Query

t:line >=-110 and o:line>=-110 and t:line > o:line and season = 2009 and p:L and SG=2

 

2009 SU: 25-21 (0.2 rpg) average line: +100 / -110 on / against: +$400 / -$650 ROI: +8.7% / -12.8%
2010 SU: 17-19 (-0.4 rpg) average line: +100 / -110 on / against: -$200 / +$30 ROI: -5.6% / +0.8%
2011 SU: 14-17 (-0.2 rpg) average line: -100 / -110 on / against: -$303 / +$164 ROI: -9.8% / +4.8%
2012 SU: 14-8 (0.3 rpg) average line: -101 / -109 on / against: +$597 / -$730 ROI: +27.0% / -30.3%

Funny thing - it was the only way to profit on this system in 2009 - which was a heavy favorite year.  Slight losses - in 2010 and 2011 - and shows profit in 2012.

So you defintely nailed it - watch for them - but don't bet every one and you can limit your losses and increase your win rate.

 
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Posted: #416

and here are the updated numbers that i screwed up with the starting pitcher ERA filter.

 

DOG - starting pitcher ERA is 1.5 better than opponent starting pitcher.

SQDL Query
t:line >=-110 and o:line>=-110 and t:line > o:line and t:STDSERA+1.5 <= o:STDSERA and season = 2009

2009 SU: 13-30 (-1.3 rpg) average line: +100 / -110 on / against: -$1,700 / +$1,570 ROI: -39.5% / +33.2%
2010 SU: 22-16 (0.8 rpg) average line: +100 / -110 on / against: +$600 / -$818 ROI: +15.8% / -19.6%
2011 SU: 14-19 (-0.9 rpg) average line: -101 / -109 on / against: -$513 / +$367 ROI: -15.5% / +10.2%
2012 SU: 19-8 (0.9 rpg) average line: -101 / -109 on / against: +$1,094 / -$1,277 ROI: +40.2% / -43.3%

 

DOG - starting pitcher ERA is better than opponent starting pitcher.

 

SQDL Query

t:line >=-110 and o:line>=-110 and t:line > o:line and t:STDSERA <= o:STDSERA and season = 2009

2009 SU: 44-68 (-0.5 rpg) average line: +100 / -110 on / against: -$2,400 / +$1,960 ROI: -21.4% / +15.9%
2010 SU: 50-39 (0.2 rpg) average line: +100 / -110 on / against: +$1,100 / -$1,598 ROI: +12.4% / -16.3%
2011 SU: 37-45 (-0.5 rpg) average line: -101 / -109 on / against: -$836 / +$443 ROI: -10.1% / +4.9%
2012 SU: 29-20 (0.2 rpg) average line: -101 / -109 on / against: +$884 / -$1,165 ROI: +17.9% / -21.8%

 
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Posted: #417

I would look at BCap888's thread b4 trusting killersports.com!!!

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=101317238&page=13

 
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Posted: #418
One important note. BCap888 started out great capping games, but ran into trouble May 18th. That when Interleague play started!!! I can't wait for this shit to end!!!
 
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Posted: #419
Thanks for the link gbpack - and I don't know if the historical data is accurate - but I have to wonder if the problem was the data he got back from killersports or the system itself he was playing - the only way to know for sure is to build your own database and backtest whatever system you want and compare the backtest results with killersports.
 
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Posted: #420
Thanks for the link gbpack - and I don't know if the historical data is accurate - but I have to wonder if the problem was the data he got back from killersports or the system itself he was playing - the only way to know for sure is to build your own database and backtest whatever system you want and compare the backtest results with killersports.
 
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Posted: #421
Degen can you remove interleague games from the query?

 
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Posted: #422

Degen,

Do you plan to add the ERA factor to your spreadsheet?

 

 
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Posted: #423

Quote Originally Posted by Stake24:

Degen can you remove interleague games from the query?

So according to killersports - if you REMOVE interleague games - and use no other filters (i.e. pitching)

SQDL query

t:line >=-110 and o:line>=-110 and t:line > o:line and C and season = 2012


2009 SU: 103-122 (-0.1 rpg) average line: +100 / -110 on / against: -$1,900 / +$870 ROI: -8.4% / +3.5%
2010 SU: 84-71 (0.2 rpg) average line: +100 / -110 on / against: +$1,300 / -$2,138 ROI: +8.4% / -12.5%
2011 SU: 106-95 (0.2 rpg) average line: -100 / -109 on / against: +$1,087 / -$2,117 ROI: +5.4% / -9.6%  
2012 SU: 58-38 (0.3 rpg) average line: -101 / -109 on / against: +$1,984 / -$2,525 ROI: +20.5% / -24.1%

So adding the interleague filter actually helps - except for 2009 which again was the year of the favorites.

It takes away some of your wins but takes away slightly more losses than wins - so brings forward a better win record.

BUT - if you look at my other post with the pitching filter - only playing dogs where the pitcher has a lower ERA - dramatically reduces the # of plays and created a losing season in 2011

t:line >=-110 and o:line>=-110 and t:line > o:line and C and t:STDSERA+1.5<= o:STDSERA and season = 2012

2011 SU: 13-19 (-1.0 rpg) average line: -101 / -109 on / against: -$613 / +$477 ROI: -19.0% / +13.6%

2012 SU: 13-7 (0.7 rpg) average line: -101 / -109 on / against: +$596 / -$719 ROI: +29.6% / -32.9%

So IF we assume the killersports data is accurate - then the interleague filter looks good - but the pitching filter - not so hot.

But keep in mind - that plays where the DOG and FAV are even are filtered out - but Irage said to take the sway team in that case.  Plus I don't know where killer sports gets their odds.....remember irage uses odds from Covers.

So this info is just an FYI - for some thought and maybe we can find additional filters that provide a better win rate.

As always - take it with a grain of salt.

 
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Posted: #424
Quote Originally Posted by CanisMajor:

Degen,

Do you plan to add the ERA factor to your spreadsheet?

I was going to - I even have the code from another project - but not sure if that pitching filter actually helps or hurts the system yet

 
 
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Posted: #425
Quote Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

So according to killersports - if you REMOVE interleague games - and use no other filters (i.e. pitching)

SQDL query

t:line >=-110 and o:line>=-110 and t:line > o:line and C and season = 2012


2009 SU: 103-122 (-0.1 rpg) average line: +100 / -110 on / against: -$1,900 / +$870 ROI: -8.4% / +3.5%
2010 SU: 84-71 (0.2 rpg) average line: +100 / -110 on / against: +$1,300 / -$2,138 ROI: +8.4% / -12.5%
2011 SU: 106-95 (0.2 rpg) average line: -100 / -109 on / against: +$1,087 / -$2,117 ROI: +5.4% / -9.6%  
2012 SU: 58-38 (0.3 rpg) average line: -101 / -109 on / against: +$1,984 / -$2,525 ROI: +20.5% / -24.1%

So adding the interleague filter actually helps - except for 2009 which again was the year of the favorites.

It takes away some of your wins but takes away slightly more losses than wins - so brings forward a better win record.

BUT - if you look at my other post with the pitching filter - only playing dogs where the pitcher has a lower ERA - dramatically reduces the # of plays and created a losing season in 2011

t:line >=-110 and o:line>=-110 and t:line > o:line and C and t:STDSERA+1.5<= o:STDSERA and season = 2012

2011 SU: 13-19 (-1.0 rpg) average line: -101 / -109 on / against: -$613 / +$477 ROI: -19.0% / +13.6%

2012 SU: 13-7 (0.7 rpg) average line: -101 / -109 on / against: +$596 / -$719 ROI: +29.6% / -32.9%

So IF we assume the killersports data is accurate - then the interleague filter looks good - but the pitching filter - not so hot.

But keep in mind - that plays where the DOG and FAV are even are filtered out - but Irage said to take the sway team in that case.  Plus I don't know where killer sports gets their odds.....remember irage uses odds from Covers.

So this info is just an FYI - for some thought and maybe we can find additional filters that provide a better win rate.

As always - take it with a grain of salt.


Degen >> the back test above is not working correctly for irage system due to the juice different between covers and killersports.  I think Covers line is 3% juice and killersports is 10% juice. For example: the WAS-NYY game yesterday, WAS +101 and killersports +108.
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