Illusion of control

I have been on here for a couple years and really know nothing more then the next guy, but yet i've climbed my way to 22/30,000 or so on all sports. I'm a team expert for MLB which makes no sense which leads me to believe are there actually good handicappers out there or is it all just chance. What I mean by chance is like this for example. If I had 1000 monkeys and gave them all ten darts and told them to throw at a board that had the names and spreads of teams playing that day. How many monkeys would be winning? You guessed it roughly half the monkeys will have more winning picks then loses. If I took those winning monkeys and had them do it again the next day I would get about the same results give or take a few. After a week I would be left with a few monkeys with an impressive win record. Would you pay these monkeys for next weeks picks. Now givith that was 1000 monkeys. Wagerline has 50,000 people or so. They say good handicappers average around 60%. That is statistically significant because it's so close to chance which is 50%, and if chance is in your favor then it will obviously be higher then 50%. Games are not indeterminate, they are just indeterminable at the current time. Handicappers look for structure where there is none. They look for patterns in everything, but with so many variables I believe this is impossible. Which gives people the illusion of control. When they win it confirms there hypothesis about why a team one. O' the under hit because of Detroit's great D. No the under hit because by chance they didn't score that much. Maybe tomorrow maybe the next. When they lose they think there was some pattern they might have over looked or the other team just played so good. again no. What do you think? Is this point valid? I'd like to hear all sides.

I know a top handicapper on American sports in a forum in my Country (Portugal) wich has consistent top result in wagerline in the last few years, know here as Flyers that has realy a personal metod, i understand your point of view, but in NBA for example you only have to find small trends over 52,38 % to reach profit if you bet at -110, thats all that matters, all the people know that no one in the world can see the future, but you can find value in a odd very often with knowledge and study.

I think the thing to remember is that you are not predicting the future nor the outcome of the game but calculating whether the emotions of the betting public have skewed the line.

In this analogy, there can very well be 1 or 2 monkeys thrown into a top 50 or so pool. That is the chance you are referring to without realizing it. There always will be an illusion of control if you actually think you and you alone control an outcome of a game. The 90% of "top cappers" surely didn't respond to this but it goes without saying, they can do this right with study and science to come out with positive results. Right?