If win Bet scenario optimization

I have been tinkering with some plays, a while back i noticed that if win bets, gave me the perception of reducing overall risk , with leaving the same potential for upside, over the long run, it also saves vig assuming a 50% hit rate . its basically making an if win bet with two teams , and splitting up with two if bets,, i outlined on the next post , and have a couple question that i will post following that

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team A

Team B

 

2 Simultaneous bets

 

4 scenarios possible

both bets @ -110  risking 2.2 per team 

 

Scenario 1   :   Aw +  Bw

Scenario 2  :    Aw + Bl

Scenario 3  :    Al + Bw 

Scenario 4 :    Al + Bl

 

 

its 2 teams with the 4 possible outcomes..   aw means team A

winning and so forth...

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Straight betting

 

Team A:  2.2 tw 2

Team B   2.2  tw 2

 

 

 

 

 

Scenario 1    =   + 4 units

Scenario 2 = -.2

Scenario 3 = -.2

Scenario 4 = -4.4

 

 

That right there is the results of betting team A and team b seperately,, and the biggest reason why being a bookie is the best way to go... 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IF win or tie betting

 

 

If win or tie bet 1

 

Risking 1.1  team A tw 1

If win or tie

Risking 1.1  team B tw 1

 

If win or tie bet 2

 

Risking 1.1 team B tw 1

If win or tie

Risking 1.1 Team A tw 1

 

 

Scenario 1 = +4

Scenario 2 = -1.2

Scenario 3 = -1.2

Scenario 4 = -2.2

 

 

If you notice,,  if you place this as an if win or tie,  you will notice that in scenario A , the win is the same, but Scenario 4 (which is two losses ) , reduce the overall loss by 2 units,, the downside being that a split will cause a -1.2  loss instead of a

-.2

 

System at 50% confidence 1000n

 

 

250 X 4 =   +1000 units

500 x -1.2 = -600

 

-150 units over  a 1000 sample size

 

 

straight bets at 50% confidence 1000n

 

 

250 x 4 = 1000

500 x -.2 = -100

250 x -4.4 = -1100

               --------------

                 -200     units over 1000 2.2 unit bets

 

as you can see at 50% , there is less cost involved.. but what we havent accounted for is ties,, which leads to my next questions