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I'm new to betting. What are some strategies?

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Prospect
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Joined: Nov, 2016
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Posted: #1
Hello,
I've been getting into a bit of sport betting but wondering on what a good strategy is? My interest is motocross racing so I am sticking with that, I'm thinking the betting strategy would be the same for horse racing. I placed a bet recently for a big event and this is what I did. I put $10 on who I think will win going for 4.50:1 and placed another $10 on a wild card but still has a shot at winning going for 7:1. (I don't know sport betting terms). I know bankroll is important as I play quite a bit of poker. Is my strategy of betting on a winner and wildcard a good one? How many people should I bet on? thanks :)
 
Covers Linesmen
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Joined: Dec, 2003
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Posted: #2
Moving this to strategies forum...
 
Rookie
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Joined: Mar, 2013
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Posted: #3
in mlb dogs are always profitable
 
 
Prospect
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Posts: 8
Posted: #4
In my opinion (&experience) dogs are not always profitable but at least they have the highest chance of being profitable without a lot of system behind it. 

For example I testet last years average odds of the whole MLB season and constant betting on dogs lead to a loss but betting on all those games with odds higher than 3.5 or 4 would have lead to an average profit per bet of 14-18%.  (European Odds - Bet 1 get 3.5 with a profit of 2.5)  

Currently I am working on a more sophisticated dog-system that allows for more differentiation, using streaks, home/away and so on. 

Also during the second half of the year I will focus on a NBA system as I have had more success betting on NBA dogs. 

The reason that dogs are usually better to bet on is simple: Betting odds consist of pure demand and supply. Now considering all those people betting "just for fun" without a system clearly leads to an overvaluation of favourites. From the Data I tested I also calculated expected probabilities from the odds and reals probabilities from the actual outcomes with the following results (Starting with even odds going down to increasingly bad dog odds)


Hope I could help and I am always thankful for input. After all we could help each other get a little richer everyday 

Hope I could help and I am always thankful for input. After all we could help each other get a little richer everyday 
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