OK here it is and this is FROM the Vegas oddsmaker themselves
MY friends told me this they know few head lines men out there
VERY fucking complicated system using POWER RATINGS in lined games
a team of number cruncherswork all the games in NCAA and NFL
using home field Coach strenght of schedule win margin from last game injuries then the add points based on public perception that is they KNOW the teams the public like to wager on so they will add 2 - 3 points more based on thier data base of public squares who just seem to love favorites and overs !
I have NO clue how they come up with power ratings but some sports papers show the power ratings NUMBERS used each week and they are adjusted
you may see one HC rated at 5 the other rated at 1 so YOU are going with the higher rated HC here
Homefield can really be higher for some teams like 10 or 25
and road team is rated at 3 just fucking confusing
then after the team gets DONE they hand the info to head lines man who put's up the final line !
NEXT they GO into a closed room where the early lines are shown to the sharps and heavy hitters and they make thier wagers
then the head lines man readjust the lines before released to the public
the days following lines will move based on public money flowing in and maybe sharp money can go way out from opening line if too much on one side they will move spreads like 7 points in NCCAA Foots when it's #1 Ranked team vs an unranked team
and the original spread was high enough like 22.5 and it went up to 28.5
any way thats how vegas sets the lines usally the Mirage goes 1st and planet holly wood as shown here on covers
butta 100% correct that all books want is as close to equal action on both sides as possible
Vegas has no idea on the out come of any game and boy can they be wrong on both sides with totals and spread as in Giants vs patriots superbowl
OMFG Giants + 12.5 and OVER 55 1/2 last year Colts - 5.5 and over 57 was so wrong sainst won s/u and it went under by 10 points 31 - 17 and colts scored 10 in 1st qtr you had to think fer sure it was going overs but saints D held em at 10 and only gave up 1 TD in 2nd half
Since I'm the only one who has worked for big sportsbook who actually set their OWN lines and dont follow others I can share the following:
We used trends and stats and rated them.
But they are trends and stats normal people never thought off and would take days to analyze for each game without using a computer.
Do you wonder how many points LA Lakers score on an estimate, if they are playing B2B games on the road, where the total is greater than or equal to 200, off an road win scoring 110 or more points, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots facing off a home win, first 6 games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost 4 or more of their last 5 games after scoring 110 points or more against opponent after scoring 40 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games and Kobe Bryant scored at least 30 points last game where both teams score 98 or more points and what the trends say?
Take that info and 10 000s more and come up with a line.
Then take how the public tends to bet when it comes to similiar games and set the lines so you make sure public makes a bet.
Sometimes, maybe a "favorite" is actually an "underdog" but they are made "favorite" because the public loves betting on that team when they are the "favorite" and skips when they are underdogs.
Sometimes it other way around.
The important thing is not if people bet and win or lose, the important thing is that they make bets, no matter what, sportsbook earns their money.
They got around 80 - 98% payback and end of the day they always earn their "commision".
Since I'm the only one who has worked for big sportsbook who actually set their OWN lines and dont follow others I can share the following:
....
Then take how the public tends to bet when it comes to similiar games and set the lines so you make sure public makes a bet.
Sometimes, maybe a "favorite" is actually an "underdog" but they are made "favorite" because the public loves betting on that team when they are the "favorite" and skips when they are underdogs.
Sometimes it other way around.
The important thing is not if people bet and win or lose, the important thing is that they make bets, no matter what, sportsbook earns their money.
They got around 80 - 98% payback and end of the day they always earn their "commision".
Established in 1995,
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