Posted:
#1
First some facts before getting to the method of coming out ahead in the long run.
Before the internet we all played with a local, the week starts on tuesday and ends after monday, we settle up on tuesday, if you are up or down less than 100 bucks you usually just carry that over to the next week.
The week ends on monday for a reason, thats because of the popular monday night game during football season, you know, double up and catch up night.
Ask any bookie and he will tell you that............
Most people will lose in the long run.
Most people will pick as many winners as losers, but still lose big.
Most people will have about as many winning weeks as losing weeks but still come out in the hole.
Most people will chase during the week when they get down by either playing more and more games or playing the games for more money or both. If they do get lucky and come back it's usually a small winning week, but when they keep losing it's many times a huge losing week.
Most people that get ahead during the week will shift into a conservative mode, in other words if after sunday's games you're up 110 bucks you might quit for the week knowing the man will have to pay you on tuesday, but if you're down 110 bucks it's about a 100 percent chance that you'll play a game or 2 on monday in hopes of winning and not having to settle up with the man on tuesday.
Because of the above most people will have small winning weeks but when things finally go bad they have big losing weeks, 4 or 5 really big losing weeks a year is what cripples most players.
So, if you want to win in the long run you must do the opposite of the losing player, try the stratagy below, it takes patience, you will have several small losing weeks and several small winning weeks but you will never have a really huge losing week but you will have a few really big winning weeks from time to time.
If you're betting on the computer just pretend that you're using a local and your goal is to collect from the man after the 7th day and not fork it over. Even if you're just betting a few bucks per game on the computer pretend it's like 50 bucks with the local bookie. Most locals want you to bet 50 bucks minimum per game.
Day 1, you might bet a couple of games for 50 bucks each, i dont care where you come up with the games you bet, you can pull them out of a hat if you want to, it wont matter in the long run. If you happen to win both games you must pretend that you really lost both and are already down 110 bucks so on day 2 you now start the chase process so you might now play 3 games at 50 bucks each. Lets say you get lucky and win all 3, but you must pretend you lost all 3 and are now down 275 bucks, ( in reality you are up 250 bucks ) so going to day 3 you continue to chase, now you might bet 5 games for 50 bucks each or you might even bet 3 games for 100 bucks each, it's up to you so long as you're chasing and trying to get back to close to even, remember your goal is to not have to fork it over to the man after day 7. The more you get behind the more games and money you bet, i suggest playing many games as compared to double or nothing on 1 game as i think the average bettor would feel safer playing 3 games at 100 bucks each rather than 1 game at 300 bucks, but again thats up to you as eventually a bettor will win or lose 6 or 8 games in a row.
On the other hand lets say that after day 1 you lose both of your bets, you must pretend you won them both and are up 100 bucks, since your goal is to collect at least 100 bucks from the man you now go into a conservative mode, you can quit for the week and take the sure 100 bucks or maybe just bet 1 game the next day for 50 bucks, lets say you lose again, pretend you won and are now up 150 bucks after day 2. If you was really up 150 bucks most people would'nt just fire in a game for 250 bucks, they would stay conservative, they dont want to give back all of that 150 bucks so they would quit for the week or keep betting small as to hold on to thier winning week, i think you get the idea now.
It's pretty simple logic, during weeks that your picks are'nt winning you're actually playing less games and betting less money, when your picks are winning you're playing more games and betting more money.
Now you can see why you will never have a monster losing week but during those weeks that your picks are falling into place you can have monster winning weeks. As i said earlier you must have patience as many weeks will fall into the close to break even catagory. Now you are betting the opposite way a loser bets!!!!!
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Excuse me but does anybody have more popcorn?
mypixwin
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