Posted:
#26
Okay great. So just flip the positions of those two constants to end up with this:
(((((OBP*SLG) * 0.568) + (TAv * 0.615)) * 100) / (HITS/RUNS)
?
0
Here's an Idea
Posted:
#28
June 14
Tampa Bay / Houston U8
C. Archer/J. Cosart
Combined - 31.36
Total - 8
122.90
Texas / Seattle O7.5
J. Saunders/E. Ramirez
Combined - 39.20
Total - 7.5
204.85
Parlay:
TBA/HOU U8 (-125)
TEX/SEA O7.5 (-110)
1 to win 2.44
YTD 3-2 (5-4-1) +5.30 Units
Be sure to play listed pitchers rather than action, if you're following.
Tampa Bay / Houston U8
C. Archer/J. Cosart
Combined - 31.36
Total - 8
122.90
Texas / Seattle O7.5
J. Saunders/E. Ramirez
Combined - 39.20
Total - 7.5
204.85
Parlay:
TBA/HOU U8 (-125)
TEX/SEA O7.5 (-110)
1 to win 2.44
YTD 3-2 (5-4-1) +5.30 Units
Be sure to play listed pitchers rather than action, if you're following.
0
Posted:
#37
Parlay:
PHI/ATL U6.5 (-105) OVER
TEX/OAK O7.5 (-115) OVER
1 to win 2.65
YTD 4-4 (8-7-1) +6.04 Units
For record keeping purposes of course Philadelphia and Atlanta is a loss. But as far as I'm concerned 12 innings with 2 runs scored is good enough to cash a ticket. Definitely on the right side in both these games.
PHI/ATL U6.5 (-105) OVER
TEX/OAK O7.5 (-115) OVER
1 to win 2.65
YTD 4-4 (8-7-1) +6.04 Units
For record keeping purposes of course Philadelphia and Atlanta is a loss. But as far as I'm concerned 12 innings with 2 runs scored is good enough to cash a ticket. Definitely on the right side in both these games.
0
Posted:
#39
What do you think the line would have been on Under 6.5 if you were live betting that game when the bottom of the 9th started? Like -25000? Anyway, we move on.
June 17
New York / St. Louis U7.5
Combined - 27.61
Total - 7.5
101.66
Colorado / Los Angeles O7
Combined - 36.26
Total - 7
187.80
Parlay:
NYN/SLN U7.5 (-120)
COL/LAN O7 (+110)
1 to win 2.85
YTD 4-4 (8-7-1) +6.04 Units
June 17
New York / St. Louis U7.5
Combined - 27.61
Total - 7.5
101.66
Colorado / Los Angeles O7
Combined - 36.26
Total - 7
187.80
Parlay:
NYN/SLN U7.5 (-120)
COL/LAN O7 (+110)
1 to win 2.85
YTD 4-4 (8-7-1) +6.04 Units
0
Posted:
#43
Quote Originally Posted by 1958a:
I am trying to reproduce your results...
if this is your OU rating formula:
(((((OBP*SLG) * 0.568) + (TAv * 0.615)) * 100) / (HITS/RUNS)
then
COL is 13.22 and LAD 11.74 hence conbined 24.96 only
what do you calclulate for each team specifically?
I am trying to reproduce your results...
if this is your OU rating formula:
(((((OBP*SLG) * 0.568) + (TAv * 0.615)) * 100) / (HITS/RUNS)
then
COL is 13.22 and LAD 11.74 hence conbined 24.96 only
what do you calclulate for each team specifically?
1958a,
BCap started calculating an OU Rating for each pitcher and adds that to the team OU Rating. After that, the Team OU ratings are added together and that result is squared. That result is then divided by the Total.
Canis
0
Posted:
#45
I believe these to be the correct calculations:
Data Needed - Team Batting - Standard
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1657913
Team OU Rating = (((((OBP*SLG)*0.568)+(TAv*0.615))*100)/(H/R))
Data Needed - Pitcher Season - Standard
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1657924
pOBP = (H+UBB+HBP)/(AB+UBB+HBP+SF)
pSLG = TB/AB
Pitcher OU Rating = ((pOBP*pSLG)*100)/(H/R)
===========
Away OU Rating = Away Team OU Rating + Away Pitcher OU Rating
Home OU Rating = Home Team OU Rating + Home Pitcher OU Rating
OU Total = (Away OU Rating + Home OU Rating)^2
OU Score = OU Total / Total
What BCap calls 'Combined' is the sum of Away OU Rating + Home OU Rating before it is squared.
0
Posted:
#46
Thank you very much for the info. If I understand correctly, team hitting ability and pitcher's ability are equally weighted?
If this is what you apply with these formulas, you may need to consider putting a coefficient for pitchers.... I think lines are mostly determined by pitching quality
Regards
0
Posted:
#48
June 19
Kansas City / Detroit U8
D. Duffy / A. Sanchez
Combined - 29.67
Total - 8
110.03
Los Angeles / Cleveland O8.5
C. Wilson / J. Masterson
Combined - 38.94
Total - 8.5
178.40
Parlay:
KCA/DET U8 (-115)
ANA/CLE O8.5 (-110)
1 to win 2.57
YTD 4-6 (10-9-1) +4.04 Units
1958- I'm going to work on it to figure out how much the pitcher numbers should account for. I'm also keeping a running count of what the OU Scores were for winners and losers. As you would expect the average losing Under has a higher OU Score than the average winning Under and same way with winning Overs being higher than losing ones. I'm trying to come up with a benchmark that if a game is above a certain OU Score it gets bet over and same with the Unders, rather than just picking the high and low.
Kansas City / Detroit U8
D. Duffy / A. Sanchez
Combined - 29.67
Total - 8
110.03
Los Angeles / Cleveland O8.5
C. Wilson / J. Masterson
Combined - 38.94
Total - 8.5
178.40
Parlay:
KCA/DET U8 (-115)
ANA/CLE O8.5 (-110)
1 to win 2.57
YTD 4-6 (10-9-1) +4.04 Units
1958- I'm going to work on it to figure out how much the pitcher numbers should account for. I'm also keeping a running count of what the OU Scores were for winners and losers. As you would expect the average losing Under has a higher OU Score than the average winning Under and same way with winning Overs being higher than losing ones. I'm trying to come up with a benchmark that if a game is above a certain OU Score it gets bet over and same with the Unders, rather than just picking the high and low.
0
Hot Forum Topics
