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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    Hedge Formula

    hagrin
    dufresne
    CaptainT
    dj_destroyer
    oilcountry99
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    hagrin
    hagrin
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    Posted: Jan. 23, 2011 - 8:19 PM ET #1

    I currently have an Excel spreadsheet where I can figure out the appropriate hedge amount if I need to hedge, but I have to plug in numbers in a trial and error type fashion. 

    I've tried about 20 hedge calculators online, but they all give the wrong answer. As an example, say I bet $10 on a 2 team parlay to win $26. To hedge at -110 odds, I would single wager 18.85 on the other side of the second game to guarantee a $7.15 profit no matter the outcome of the second game. 

    I've looked at the formula for Arbitrage betting, but it doesn't seem to work with - 

    s1 = 10
    s2 = ?
    o1 = 2.6
    o2 = .9090
    r1 = 26
    r2 = ?

    where s = stakes, o = odds and r = results. 

    Anyone have a formula handy to calculate a maximum profit hedge? 
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    I currently have an Excel spreadsheet where I can figure out the appropriate hedge amount if I need to hedge, but I have to plug in numbers in a trial and error type fashion. 

    I've tried about 20 hedge calculators online, but they all give the wrong answer. As an example, say I bet $10 on a 2 team parlay to win $26. To hedge at -110 odds, I would single wager 18.85 on the other side of the second game to guarantee a $7.15 profit no matter the outcome of the second game. 

    I've looked at the formula for Arbitrage betting, but it doesn't seem to work with - 

    s1 = 10
    s2 = ?
    o1 = 2.6
    o2 = .9090
    r1 = 26
    r2 = ?

    where s = stakes, o = odds and r = results. 

    Anyone have a formula handy to calculate a maximum profit hedge? 
     
    hagrin
    hagrin
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    Posted: Jan. 24, 2011 - 11:40 AM ET #2

    Nevermind everyone, figured it out this morning. Just needed to walk away for a bit to get the answer I needed.
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    Nevermind everyone, figured it out this morning. Just needed to walk away for a bit to get the answer I needed.
     
    dufresne
    dufresne
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    Posts: 5022
    Posted: Jan. 24, 2011 - 11:44 AM ET #3

    I would be interested in seeing the formula if you have the time to post it.


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    I would be interested in seeing the formula if you have the time to post it.


     
    CaptainT
    CaptainT
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2011 - 1:08 AM ET #4

    Hey Hagrin, this looks interesting, please share. I would love to see this played out if you would have time too run a trial. 
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    Hey Hagrin, this looks interesting, please share. I would love to see this played out if you would have time too run a trial. 
     
    dj_destroyer
    dj_destroyer
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2011 - 2:01 AM ET #5

    You shouldn't hedge... Hedging means you made a longterm wager (parlay, teaser, future) which are all sucker bets.

    Middling, on the other hand, is the goods.
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    You shouldn't hedge... Hedging means you made a longterm wager (parlay, teaser, future) which are all sucker bets.

    Middling, on the other hand, is the goods.
     
    hagrin
    hagrin
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2011 - 9:21 PM ET #6

    I agree - hedging shouldn't be a strategy implemented often, but there are times when it is appropriate - especially if you play a lot of futures or if there is late breaking news that you weren't aware of when you placed your original bet.

    Anyways, this wasn't a discussion on the merits of hedging ...

    s2 = (s1o1 + s1) / (o2 + 1)

    where s2 = hedge amount, s1 = initial wager amount, o1 = the odds for your initial wager and o2 = the odds on your hedge bet. I built an online calculator for this for my friends/associates to use but I won't post it here because I don't know the policy on posting links. You can find the link in a post on my blog on this site.

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    I agree - hedging shouldn't be a strategy implemented often, but there are times when it is appropriate - especially if you play a lot of futures or if there is late breaking news that you weren't aware of when you placed your original bet.

    Anyways, this wasn't a discussion on the merits of hedging ...

    s2 = (s1o1 + s1) / (o2 + 1)

    where s2 = hedge amount, s1 = initial wager amount, o1 = the odds for your initial wager and o2 = the odds on your hedge bet. I built an online calculator for this for my friends/associates to use but I won't post it here because I don't know the policy on posting links. You can find the link in a post on my blog on this site.

     
    oilcountry99
    oilcountry99
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2011 - 10:01 PM ET #7

    The link in your blog doesn't seem to work.
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    The link in your blog doesn't seem to work.
     
     
    hagrin
    hagrin
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2011 - 11:42 PM ET #8

    Quote Originally Posted by oilcountry99:

    The link in your blog doesn't seem to work.

    Sorry about that - I fail at the Internets.

    It's fixed now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by oilcountry99:

    The link in your blog doesn't seem to work.

    Sorry about that - I fail at the Internets.

    It's fixed now.

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